Last year, Kendrick Lamar was the most dominant figure at the Grammys, despite not having an album in contention.
This was, of course, thanks to the runaway train that was “Not Like Us,” which steamrolled the competition on its way to Song of the Year and Record of the Year wins.
Kendrick is set up for another big night on Sunday, with nine nominations, including Best Album for his 2024 hit GNX. The difference this time? The field is much more competitive. In the main awards, Kendrick is facing heavy heat from Bad Bunny, one of the biggest pop stars right now, who just won Album of the Year at the Latin Grammys and is about to headline the halftime show at Super Bowl LX.
In the rap category, Kendrick is going up against Clipse, who delivered the critically acclaimed Let God Sort ’Em Out and who have been campaigning aggressively for a statue.
So… who’s going to win? The good news—you can bet on it. But if you’re not sure yet maybe hold off until you check out our predictions for all the major awards, including the rap categories.
Before we get to it, one thing needs to be noted: The members of the Recording Academy are a vast network of music professionals—artists, songwriters, producers, and record executives—and they have their own biases. These biases often lean toward honoring music that’s more traditional or, at the very least, music that fits into a conversation with the broader musical canon, rather than what’s at the forefront of popular culture. So, when doing our predictions we factor that tradition heavily.
The 2026 Grammy Awards will air live from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Sunday, February 1, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT. The ceremony will be broadcast on CBS and stream live on Paramount+.
Best Rap Album
Nominees: Let God Sort Em Out (Clipse), Glorious (GloRilla), God Does Like Ugly (JID), GNX (Kendrick Lamar), Chromakopia (Tyler, the Creator)
Should Win: Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out
Let God Sort Em Out, the first album in 16 years from brothers Pusha T and Malice, is a remarkable step forward for the group, a reminder that they were once the most exciting group in rap and a declaration that they can return to that place whenever they drop a new LP; hopefully we don’t have to wait 16 more years for the next one.
Who Will Win: Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out
Best Rap Album is one of the rare categories in which every entry has a strong case for its merits, but Let God Sort Em Out is the album most likely to win. When you consider its cultural impact, the aggressive campaigning by Pusha and Malice, and the fact that GNX—the other frontrunner—dropped in 2024, it feels like the safest bet to take the W among the rap categories. —Will Schube
Best Rap Performance
Nominees: "Outside" (Cardi B), "Chains & Whips" (Clipse Feat. Kendrick Lamar & Pharrell Williams) "Anxiety" *Doechii) , "tv off" (Kendrick Lamar Feat. Lefty Gunplay, "Darling, I" (Tyler, the Creator Feat. Teezo Touchdown)
Should Win: Kendrick Lamar, "tv off"
One could rationally make a case that Kendrick Lamar and Lefty Gunplay’s “tv off” is the best song K.Dot dropped during his recent all-time run. The beat that begins the song is a classic from Mustard, and the transition from the song’s A-part to the Just Blaze-inspired horn anthem that follows is introduced by one of the greatest moments in Kendrick Lamar’s career; perhaps the funniest and best idea he’s ever recorded on an album.
Who Will Win: Kendrick Lamar, "tv off"
Kendrick Lamar dominated the Grammys last year. He won’t have the same success this year but don’t expect K.Dot to go home empty-handed. Out of all the nominees, “tv off” feels like the Grammy choice here. And it really is a great Rap Performance—so great I could listen to Lefty Gunplay saying “Crazy, scary, spooky, hilarious” all day long. —Will Schube
Best Rap Song
Nominees: "Anxiety" (Doechii), "The Birds Don't Sing" (Clipse Featuring John Legend & Voices of Fire), "Sticky" (Tyler, the Creator Feat. GloRilla, Sexyy Red & Lil Wayne), "TGIF", (GloRilla), "tv off” (Kendrick Lamar Feat. Lefty Gunplay)
Should Win: Kendrick Lamar Feat. Lefty Gunplay, "tv off”
How could you hear this song and not think of the demonic smile Kendrick flashed at the end of last year’s Super Bowl? That moment crystallized the song’s power—an anthem with a gargantuan beat and violence simmering just beneath the surface. In a just world, it would take home the Best Rap Grammy.
Who Will Win: Clipse Featuring John Legend & Voices of Fire, “The Birds Don’t Sing,”
You really think the Grammys are about to ignore a song that was performed at the Vatican?
“The Birds Don’t Sing,” the centerpiece of Let God Sort ’Em Out, is basically Grammy catnip: heartfelt, impeccably executed, with excellent rapping, and featuring an appearance from Grammy favorite John Legend. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Best Melodic Rap Performance
Nominees: "Proud of Me" (Fridayy Feat. Meek Mill), "Wholeheartedly" (JID Feat. Ty Dolla Sign & 6lack), "Luther" (Kendrick Lamar & SZA), "WeMaj" (Terrace Martin & Kenyon Dixon Feat. Rapsody), "Somebody Loves Me" (PARTYNEXTDOOR & Drake)
Should Win: Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther”
Kendrick and SZA’s ballad “Luther” went on a historic run last year, buoyed in part by the rollout for their massive joint tour. While there are strong songs in this category—including an entry from rival Drake—none matched the cultural impact of “Luther.”
Who Will Win: Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther”
This is almost a guarantee. “Luther”has an old-school, nostalgic R&B-driven sound that will flatter the sensibilities of Grammy voters. It also helps that the song pays homage to Luther Vandross, who in his prime was a Grammy favorite. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Best R&B Album
Nominees: Beloved (Giveon), Why Not More? (Coco Jones), The Crown (Ledisi), Escape Room (Teyana Taylor), Mutt ( Leon Thomas)
Should Win: Leon Thomas, Mutt
Twenty twenty-five was the year of Leon Thomas—the year of MUTT, the year of MUTT (DELUXE): HEEL, the year of PHOLKS. This should be his to lose.
Who Will Win: Leon Thomas, Mutt
The Brooklyn-raised singer, signed to Ty Dolla $ign’s EZMNY imprint through Motown Records, received the unenviable honor of a Best New Artist nomination at this year’s Grammys—despite having existed as a musician for more than a decade.
He won’t win that award, but the blow will be softened, at least slightly, by this Best R&B trophy, which serves as the Grammys’ belated acknowledgment of the cultural sensation MUTT became over the past year. —Will Schube
Best R&B Song
Nominees: "Folded"(Kehlani), "Heart of a Woman" (Summer Walker), "It Depends" (Chris Brown Feat. Bryson Tiller), "Overqualified" (Durand Bernarr), "Yes It Is" (Leon Thomas)
Should Win: Kehlani, “Folded”
The strings on Kehlani’s “Folded” perform the sort of melody that is instantly familiar, a friendly handshake or a warm hug. It sounds inspired, original, but somehow intuitive, too. It’s from this place that Kehlani approaches “Folded,” her most successful song to date and a deeply felt iteration of the classic R&B breakup song. This should be a no brainer.
Who Will Win: Kehlani, “Folded”
And, the Grammys will get it right. Expect the win. While the song is easily identifiable as a sensation, it’s made all the funnier by the fact that the beat was originally made for Wale. It’s a blessing for all of us that it eventually landed with Kehlani. —Will Schube
Best R&B Performance
Nominees: "Yukon" (Justin Bieber), "It Depends" (Chris Brown Feat. Bryson Tiller), "Folded" (Kehlani), "Mutt (Live from NPR's Tiny Desk)" ( Leon Thomas), "Heart of a Woman" (Summer Walker)
Should Win: Justin Bieber, “Yukon”
Yes, technically “Daisies” was the bigger song. But when we look back on the excellent—if slightly understated—Swag era, “Yukon” will be the track that defines it: tender, touching, acoustic-driven, and wholly worthy of a Best R&B Performance Grammy.
Who Will Win: Kehlani, "Folded"
That said, this statue is going to Kehlani, who has never won a Grammy before. “Folded” is one of the most traditional songs of her career—a warm yet icy breakup anthem with an early-2000s feel that the Recording Academy will eat up. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Best New Artist
Nominees: Olivia Dean, Katseye, The Marías, Addison Rae, Sombr, Leon Thomas, Alex Warren, Lola Young
Should Win: Olivia Dean
Olivia Dean had been a household name in her home country of the U.K. for a number of years, but even her 2023 LP Messy didn’t find a strong foothold here in the U.S.
It was the success of “Man I Need,” one of many choice cuts on her 2025 LP The Art of Loving, that launched Dean onto the global stage. There were moments throughout the year in which every artist in this category could have reasonably predicted they would be walking on the Grammy stage on Sunday. Now, anyone but Olivia Dean seems like the wrong choice.
Who Will Win: Olivia Dean
Best New Artist at the 2026 Grammys resembled an 100m dash at the Olympics. Well, one of the ones Usain Bolt ran in, where the race was very close for its majority before ending in a comfortable victory for the winner. Olivia Dean took control of this race, and she’ll be rewarded for the unpredictability of her rise. —Will Schube
Song of the Year
Nominees: "Abracadabra"(Lady Gaga), "Anxiety" (Doechii), "APT." (Rosé & Bruno Mars), "DTMF" (Bad Bunny), "Golden" (Huntrix: Ejae, Audrey Nuna & Rei Ami), "Luther" (Kendrick Lamar and SZA), "Manchild" (Sabrina Carpenter), "Wildflower" (Billie Eilish)
Should Win: Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther”
Can Kendrick Lamar really win song of the year two years in a row? There’s a strong case he should. “Luther,” which in a lot of ways is the pure opposite of the seething “Not Like Us,” would be a worthy winner, in a category that is stacked with nothing but great options.
Who Will Win: Bad Bunny, "DTMF"
But ultimately, it will be Bad Bunny’s sentimental pop ballad “DTMF” that takes the honor home. The win will be a signal that Benito, perhaps the biggest name in pop music right now, is poised for a big night. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Record of the Year
"DTMF" (Bad Bunny), "Manchild" (Sabrina Carpenter), "Anxiety" (Doechii), "Wildflower," (Billie Eilish), "Abracadabra" (Lady Gaga), "Luther" (Kendrick Lamar & SZA), "The Subway" (Chappell Roan) "APT." (Rosé & Bruno Mars)
Should Win: Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther”
Granted, the song from Kendrick Lamar and SZA has a bit of an unfair advantage, as audiences across the country heard the excellent song live, performed as a duet, when K.Dot and SZA embarked on their Grand National Tour in 2025.
That gave the song its indelibility, but it was always a hit; always the breath of fresh air, the warm shower, the first sip of coffee in the morning within GNX. It deserves the coveted Record of the Year Grammy.
Who Will Win: Lady Gaga, "Abracadabra"
The Recording Academy lovessssssss them some Lady Gaga. Granted, we are something of Little Monsters ourselves, but in the past, the body has used every possible opportunity to reward her over more deserving artists. We fear the same ending may await us in 2026, where “Abracadabra” (which is nostalgic but B Gaga at best) will beat out a number of more deserving entries. —Will Schube
Album of the Year
Should Win: Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos
Bad Bunny’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos was the first major release of 2025, and its impact lasted the entire year. The music is excellent, drawing on a wide range of influences from Puerto Rico. What makes it especially impressive is that Benito tackles knotty political themes—the album addresses colonialism on the island—while still crafting catchy pop hooks and melodies.
Who Will Win: Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos
The Grammys will get this right.
You can’t ignore Benito right now. He’s preparing to perform at the Super Bowl, and even though he hasn’t done much press, the event has kept him firmly in the conversation.
Beyond that, the music and the messaging around his album—topical with certain headlines—will make him a favorite for Grammy voters. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo