Hip-hop has been super volatile over the last couple of years. Given all the questions swirling around the genre during its 50th decade—who are the new stars? Where are the hit records? Is hip-hop on its last legs? What will AI do to a style that has always looked ahead?—how can you begin to predict what’s next?
But, fuck it—with the year just starting and no major releases out yet, why not give it a shot?
Here are 15 predictions for rap music in 2026.
No, there won’t be a breakout AI star in rap.
Maybe the bolder prediction is that the next breakout star will be AI-generated. But nah, chat, I can’t lie to you. Despite what Xania Monet and her $3 million deal or that TaTa Taktumi avatar might have you believe, there’s almost zero chance these kinds of “artists” become anything more than novelty acts. Their main appeal isn’t musical merit; it’s the fact that they’re AI-generated—usually boosted by evangelists with financial incentives. And the audience reaction, which ranges from hostility to gawkish curiosity—but almost never real emotional obsession—shows just how little headroom there actually is.
We will see an anti-AI movement spark within rap.
Even if we won’t see FN Meka turn into a superstar anytime soon, it’s clear that AI is playing an increasingly significant role in music creation. Generative AI technology is already being used to fix vocals, create samples, and assist with songwriting. While Alchemist and Erykah Badu faced criticism for using AI on artwork, up-and-coming rappers are incorporating it into their music videos or their own album art with little public outcry. Hip-hop has always been scrappy.
Even as major labels get cozier with AI, the biggest artists will remain publicly hesitant—partly influenced by an audience that is not entirely comfortable with technology foisted on them. If anything, 2026 will be the year rappers start putting their flags down more decisively, with non-usage increasingly framed as a sign of artistic integrity, a position we’ve already seen from Freddie Gibbs and Tyler, the Creator. Notably, after previously championing AI, Kanye West’s team announced that Bully—presented as a redemptive, return-to-form album—won’t feature the technology.
The UK underground scene is great, but it will stay underground.
You know the names—fakemink, EsDeeKid, Jim Legxacy, Feng—so I don’t have to list their accolades. All of them are exciting in their own ways. They’ve already made genuinely creative, high-quality music. I’d put Black British Music up there with any rap album released last year. EsDeeKid, in particular, proves that this music can hit the zeitgeist in the right way.
That said, having lived through years of arguments about grime being “next,” I’m pretty bearish that the scene can transcend and dominate music the way Atlanta did in the 2010s. Part of it is that UK rap has never been able to break in the States—largely because it’s so tied to its own locality. Its accents, slang, and hyper-local references don’t translate to a mainstream American audience. And isn’t that a good thing?
A transcendent young rap star will come out of Atlanta.
While the UK underground is currently the “cool kids” pick, Atlanta remains the real gem. Last year, the scene made waves nationally through Metro Boomin and Playboi Carti, who leaned into the late-2010s nostalgia that artists like Bunna B, Pluto, and YKNIece had already been tapping in with.
But this year is when one of the oddballs will break out, and Atlanta is full of them.They might not be transcendent yet, but the energy is electric. Whether it’s the manic intensity of Glokk40Spaz, the increasingly unhinged approach of Che, the quirky charm of Zukenee, or the exaggerated Thugga vibes of Tezzus, the city is brimming with talent. This new class of Atlanta rappers may be more Awful Records than QC, but no city is producing talent at this level.
Clipse will win the Best Rap Album Grammy; Kendrick won’t win Album of the Year.
In fact, what they are really doing is campaigning. And while it’s not enough for them to bring home the Best Album statue, they will fulfill their wishes and get the Best Rap Album Grammy. Their elder statesmen presence commands respect, and their willingness to be everywhere flatters the sensibilities of older Grammy voters, making the album a shoo-in.
On the flipside, this is why it will be a quiet night for Kendrick. Although “Luther” was omnipresent and he and SZA had one of the biggest tours last year, Dot largely sat out the awards season maneuvering, and GNX just isn’t in the limelight like the other records. Meaning he won’t win Album of the Year.
Meta album rollouts will dominate.
It may seem counterintuitive—major labels are pulling back on investments and marketing plans, and there are fewer traditional outlets than ever—but the era of the “anti-rollout rollout” is dying. There’s simply too much noise for music to break through without a strategic rollout.
If anything, Clipse—essentially an indie act relying more on experienced muscle than machine—has put the spotlight back on traditional rollouts. By making the rollout itself part of the event, they drove awareness and created anticipation around their music.
Interestingly, Drake is using a similar tactic with Iceman, rolling it out on stream in a way that highlights the rollout itself and, in the process, interrogates what an album launch can be.
Carti won’t actually drop Baby Boi.
We’ve been down this road too many times for me to actually believe Baby Boi is coming this year. With the one-year anniversary of MUSIC approaching, he’ll likely bask in this era a little longer before introducing something new.
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the version of Baby Boi that Swamp Izzo told us about never drops—or he just scraps the album another, adding to the long list of rap projects that never saw the light of day.
There will be a streamers and hip-hop divorce.
Much has been made about streamers’ influence on rappers and how the two have become increasingly intertwined, especially when rappers are trying to drum up attention.
Yes, there have been plenty of viral moments. But it’s not a perfect fit. As rappers get bigger, you can feel the relationship become more cynical, and there is a general thirstiness that sometimes makes the interactions unbearable. I think you saw this clearly with the rise of PlaqueboyMax. His streams with artists like Lazer Dim 700, BabyChiefDoIt, and 41 were electric—and led to legitimately great songs. While streams with Lil Baby, Sexyy Red, and Central Cee were awkward and often labored.
It feels like we’re heading toward an uncoupling. In part, streamers don’t need rappers as much any more. We’re seeing signs of this: DJ Akademiks recently spoke about his hesitancy to talk with ASAP Rocky, claiming that interviews are “dead.”
The rapper-podcast bubble will finally burst.
Later this month, Tony Yayo and Uncle Murda will launch their podcast, The Real Report. This comes just a couple of months after Jim Jones, Maino, Fabolous, and Dave East premiered their pod, Let’s Rap About It, roughly a year after Memphis Bleek debuted Soul of the Roc. You get the drift.
More than ten years after the Joe Budden Podcast premiered, these shows now feel like a reminder of how difficult touring has become for older artists. This year we will see pods close up shop. The views are meager, there’s a glut, the financial incentives aren’t always there, and most hosts struggle to talk about topics beyond their personal lore.
Sure, I’ve gotten some joy from hearing Jadakiss and Fat Joe roast me over a Complex list, but a decade later: Joe Budden sits at the top. After that, there’s a very large gap.
Lil Uzi Vert will be the comeback rapper of the year.
The last couple of years have been tough for Lil Uzi Vert, and I’ll admit some of the recent music has been spotty. Still, I haven’t given up—they are one of the great rappers of the last ten years. And now that they’re independent, and can’t use label woes as a primary foe, I’m confident we’ll see a non-washed Uzi emerge.
I should also add: 2016 is the 10-year anniversary of Lil Uzi Vert vs. the World, their official breakout, and they will take advantage of that moment—tour, merch, something—to help spark the comeback.
Drake will take the country or K-pop plunge.
In many ways, “Die Trying” and “Meet Your Padre” are the most interesting songs on $ome $exy $ongs 4 U. These tracks are the most experimental Drake has sounded in years, exploring acoustic emo-pop vibes and Regional Mexican music, respectively.
To me, it signals that Drake,slightly diminished after the Kendrick scrap, is ready to get a feisty and experimental. I wouldn’t be surprised if he channels this energy into either country or K-pop—two of the more dominant genres on the charts. Not only would it make artistic sense, but either choice could lead to Drake’s first No. 1 since “First Person Shooter.”
Rap will become more left-leaning again.
Similar to the way strippers are often cited as an early indicator that a recession is coming, rappers are a good barometer for where the political winds are blowing. In the last presidential election cycle, there were signs that the country was taking a right-wing turn—going back to 2022—even as Democrats performed better than expected in the midterms.
But the tides are clearly shifting again. A lot of that energy started with Palestine, where more rappers began openly speaking out in support. From there, rappers have come out against ICE’s role in major cities—something that will likely intensify as the agency becomes more violent. (Right now, Vic Mensa’s “Orange Tree” video about Renee Good is going super viral.)
At the same time, MAGA-era politics in rap feel culturally weak. The movement’s central issue—the economy and the general affordability crisis, which rappers were openly talking about for years—still hasn’t been meaningfully addressed. And while “Make America Great Again” still exists as a meme, pro-Trumpism in music isn’t where it was even a year ago.
Baby Keem will finally hit us with ‘Child with Wolves’
It’s been nearly five years since Baby Keem dropped his major label debut, The Melodic Blue. Considering both the wait and the hype, it’s hard to think of a sophomore album more anticipated than Keem’s.
The good news? We’re getting it this year. My other prediction: the album will drop in the first half of 2026. Governors Ball recently announced its June festival lineup, and Keem is right at the top. There’s no way he’s showing up without new music to share.
We’ll see a rapper start a Substack.
J. Cole launched a blog but basically gave up after a few entries, which is a very amateur blogger thing to do. Someone in the rap space will eventually take the kind of energy Charli XCX is tapping into and use it to their advantage—especially as we enter an era where mystique-heavy branding is heading out of vogue and other channels for transparency (short-form video, streaming) are starting to feel clogged.
Rap won’t have a big year on the charts, again, and we will get the same weak discourse about rap’s popularity, again.
I mean, the genre is just too big.
We live in a world where 2slimey and Wale can both release “rap” albums on the same day. In a landscape like that, it’s hard to find common ground on where the genre is going. Hip-hop’s future is diverging from familiar truisms—becoming more chaotic and less lyric-focused—making it difficult to say what rap is “supposed” to sound like. That uncertainty fuels the same tired arguments about rap being “cooked,” even as its cultural influence remains undeniable.
Add to that the dominance of regional rap—which is popular on ad-supported streaming platforms but still less respected by subscription-based listeners—and the picture becomes even more fragmented. Big rap songs still happen, but the era of one massive hit dominating the charts—like “Not Like Us,” which was tied to a once-in-a-lifetime beef—feels increasingly rare. What makes rap the most interesting genre—its wide range of sounds, movements, voices, and styles layered on a rich legacy—is also what makes it difficult to pin down on the charts.