Here’s something you probably didn’t anticipate reading a week ago: Karl-Anthony Towns is more likely to win NBA Finals MVP than Victor Wembanyama.
KAT is currently +165 to win Finals MVP at Fanatics Sportsbook, while Wemby is +400. Jalen Brunson is the favorite at +115. After those three, there is a huge dropoff on the Fanatics board as the next two players are Mikal Bridges (+15000) and OG Anunoby (+15000).
Towns has had an exceptional series through two games as he has shined on both ends of the floor for the Knicks.
Inside The NBA’s Charles Barkley gave KAT some very high praise following Game 2.
“[Towns] was criticized in Minnesota,” Barkley said. “He was criticized in New York. But the MVP of the Finals is gonna be Karl-Anthony Towns. He played two of the best games I’ve ever seen a big man play. That man earned his flowers.”
The case for KAT
KAT has been highly efficient so far in the Finals as he is averaging 19.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game.
It’s still far too early to call Towns “Wemby Kryptonite,” but the 30-year-old veteran has been locked in from the start of these Finals.
Not for nothing, he won the opening tip-off of the series over the towering, 7-foot-4 Wembanyama, which is no easy feat. That small moment set the tone for the first two games. Wemby has looked flustered by Towns at times in this series, highlighted by two crunch-time mishaps.
With 59 seconds remaining in Game 1 and his Spurs down by 4 points, Wemby tried to blow by KAT to get to the rim. Wembanyama dribbled the ball off his knee, the Knicks grabbed it, and New York came away with a 105-95 victory.
With 12 seconds left in Game 2 and with KAT pressuring him in the backcourt, Wemby had another brutal turnover as he threw the ball off the back of Stephon Castle. The Knicks won, 105-104.
When guarded by Towns, Wemby has seven turnovers so far in the series.
The case for Wemby
A week ago, many were talking about where Wemby ranked among the all-time greats to play the sport of basketball. Today, the primary discussion surrounding Wemby is “what’s wrong with this guy?”
The Spurs big man has fine numbers so far in the series as he’s averaging 27.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks. But, given the level of play we saw from him in the Western Conference Finals against OKC and the previous two playoff rounds, he has been inefficient.
There is some strong evidence that Wemby is about to break out of this so-called “funk,” though. In Game 2, Wembanyama scored 22 of his game-high 29 points in the second half. Ten of those points came during the Spurs’ fourth quarter comeback.
San Antonio is quite confident that it has everything needed to climb back in this series.
“We don’t feel like we played well or up to our standard at least in the last two games,” Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson said. “New York has played very well, and they’re a part of that. But we’re going into Game 3. If we play our basketball up to our standard, then we’ll be just fine.
If the Spurs win Game 3 tonight, the pressure immediately shifts to the championship-starved Knicks, and Wemby likely climbs back atop the Finals MVP odds board.
The case for Jalen Brunson
Brunson is the NBA Finals MVP favorite at the moment based solely on narrative.
He’s the Knicks leader and the Knicks are up 2-0. Therefore, he’s the favorite.
Brunson’s numbers in this series, though, have not been great.
In Game 1, he went 12-of-31 from the field. In Game 2, 7-of-25.
Brunson is shooting just 23.5 percent from 3-point range, and he is averaging just 4.0 assists per game. He averaged 6.8 assists per game in the regular season.
The case for a longshot
If the Spurs climb back into this series, and Wemby continues to play below his standard, the likes of Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper will rise significantly on the Finals MVP odds board.
Castle has done a solid job defending Brunson so far in the series, but Castle’s scoring numbers don’t exactly scream “MVP” at the moment. He is averaging 15.5 points per game so far in the series.
De’Aaron Fox is averaging just 13.5 points, and Dylan Harper is averaging just 15.5 ppg thus far against the Knicks.
Bridges is averaging 14.5 points per game in the Finals, while Anunoby is averaging 17.0 ppg.
The most recent example of a “No. 2” star winning NBA Finals MVP is Boston’s Jaylen Brown from two years ago. Brown averaged 20.8 points per game in that year’s Finals. It’s something to ponder when looking at the odds for KAT, Castle, Fox, Harper, Bridges and Anunoby.
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