For Jennifer Lopez, this fall was supposed to be about redemption. After years of near misses with Academy recognition, her performance in Kiss of the Spider Woman was positioned to put her in serious contention.
At 56, Lopez not only headlined her first-ever movie musical but also stepped into a role that felt tailor-made for awards buzz.
Yet, despite the setup, the film’s opening weekend projections tell a very different story. With numbers pointing to just $2 million at the box office, the narrative around Lopez’s Oscar campaign may already be slipping away.
When People confirmed in September that Lopez would be submitted in the Best Supporting Actress category, fans immediately recalled the sting of her 2019 snub for Hustlers. That role, a critically acclaimed turn as Ramona, landed her nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and Independent Spirit Awards, but never at the Oscars.
Lopez herself admitted in her Netflix documentary Halftime that she had let her hopes get too high. “The truth is, I really started to think I was gonna get nominated,” she said. “I got my hopes up because so many people were telling me I would be. And then it didn’t happen.”
With Kiss of the Spider Woman, Lopez seemed determined to rewrite that chapter. She openly described the project as the fulfillment of a lifelong dream. At the Sundance premiere, she told the audience, “I’ve been waiting for this moment my whole life.”
She recalled how watching West Side Story with her mother as a child set her on the path to becoming a performer. “That was always my goal. And this is the first time I actually got to do it,” she said through tears.
The film paired Lopez with Diego Luna and rising star Tonatiuh in a story rooted in fantasy, escapism, and resilience. Directed by Bill Condon, whose resume includes Chicago, Dreamgirls, and Beauty and the Beast, the production carried a high pedigree and a budget in the $30 million range. For Lopez, the pieces appeared aligned.
But as Variety reported, the film’s theatrical launch tells a different story. Slotted against Disney’s Tron: Ares and Paramount’s Roofman, Kiss of the Spider Woman is expected to open between $1.5 million and $3 million from 1,300 theaters.
That performance is a steep drop compared to the 1985 version of the story, which grossed $17 million globally. Even without adjusting for inflation, the new adaptation may not reach that number. The limited box office interest could hamper awards season momentum.
The challenge is not just the numbers but also the perception. Showbiz411’s Roger Friedman noted that the film, despite Lopez’s tireless promotion, has been overshadowed in the marketplace.
He wrote that critics and press weren’t heavily courted, with some members of the Critics Choice Association saying they never even received outreach for screenings. On Metacritic, the film currently sits at a score of 60, while Rotten Tomatoes shows a more favorable 80 percent.
Still, Friedman observed that top critics largely align more closely with the lower number, suggesting that enthusiasm is mixed at best.
Lopez has been here before, caught between critical acclaim, industry politics, and the cold calculus of box office results. Her co-stars and Condon’s direction have earned praise, and Tonatiuh in particular has been singled out for a breakout performance. But awards campaigns are rarely just about talent—they depend on momentum, visibility, and a studio push.
Friedman was blunt in his assessment, noting that distributor Roadside Attractions, nicknamed “Roadkill” in his piece, has a track record of underwhelming releases. Without the backing of an aggressive Oscar strategist, Lopez risks watching another awards season slip away.