Bets

MLB Home Run Derby Odds: Who Are The Favorites?

Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Rice will be swinging for the fences tonight in Philadelphia. Which slugger is favored to win the event?

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber look on during a Philadelphia Phillies game in 2025.
Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Thanks to the power of Netflix, tonight’s Home Run Derby is the most hyped long ball event in years, possibly decades. Not since the days of Chris Berman shouting “back, back, back!,” Ken Griffey Jr. wearing a backwards ballcap, and the phrase “chicks dig the long ball” being a part of the American lexicon has there been this much hype surrounding a home run competition.

Tonight’s dinger extravaganza (8 p.m. ET, streaming live on Netflix) is being held at the HR-friendly Citizens Bank Park, and will feature a pair of Phillies players that will be looking to put on a show in front of the hometown crowd. Bryce Harper (+800) and Kyle Schwarber (+300) headline the event, with Schwarber owning the designation of favorite at Fanatics Sportsbook.

Here is a look at the odds for each participant:

  • Kyle Schwarber (+300)
  • Junior Caminero (+425)
  • Munetaka Murakami (+500)
  • Jac Caglianone (+650)
  • Jordan Walker (+650)
  • Bryce Harper (+800)
  • Ben Rice (+850)
  • Willson Contreras (+1300)

The field
Schwarber is the obvious favorite as he leads MLB with 32 home runs on the season. The Phillies slugger has participated in the Derby two times before but has not won the event. He made the finals in 2018, but ultimately lost to Harper.

White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami is one of the more intriguing players in the field as this is his first season playing baseball in the US. He has taken MLB by storm, as he hit 20 home runs within the first two-and-a-half months of this season before a stint on the IL.

One fun angle with the Yankees’ Ben Rice is that his father, Dan, will be throwing to him during the Derby.

Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, last year’s Home Run Derby champion, is not participating this year.

Change in format
MLB is going back to the future with its Home Run Derby format.

There will be no more timed rounds. Instead, batters will now start each round with a finite number of swings.

Each hitter will have 20 swings in the first round. Players who homer on their final swing of a round will be allowed to keep swinging for the fences until they record “an out,” which is any swing that does not produce a home run.

The top four home run hitters from the first round will advance to the second round. In the second round, the hitters will have 15 swings.

The top two home run hitters from the second round will meet in the finals, where they will once again have 15 swings each.

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