The 2026 NBA Finals is chock full of juicy storylines. For the Knicks, the main plot is that the franchise is just four wins away from its first NBA title since the Nixon administration. For the Spurs, it’s whether or not we could be witnessing the first title for a young superstar player that has the true potential to dominate the league for the rest of this decade and well into the 2030s.
Of course, there are plenty of other things to consider when analyzing this series.
Here are Three Reasons the Knicks Will Win the 2026 Finals—and Three Reasons They Won’t.
Why the Knicks Will Win
Runaway train
The Knicks are on a historic heater, having won 11 consecutive playoff games by an average of 23.8 points. Teams that are this hot typically do quite well in the NBA Finals.
There have been four other teams that have entered pro basketball’s championship round on a win streak of 11 games or better: the 1989 Los Angeles Lakers (11-game win streak), the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers (11-game win streak), the 1999 San Antonio Spurs (12-game win streak), and the 2017 Golden State Warriors (15-game win streak). The 1989 Lakers are the only team from that group that did not bring home the chip and they have an excuse—Byron Scott missed the entire series with a hamstring injury and Magic Johnson strained his left hamstring in the third quarter of Game Two and missed the remainder of the series.
Experience
The Knicks ascent with Jalen Brunson running the show has been building for several years. The Brunson-era Knicks were bounced by the Heat in the semifinals in 2023. They were bounced by the Pacers in the semifinals in 2024, and they were again knocked out by Indiana in 2025 in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Outside of Miles McBride, the Knicks’ top eight players have a combined 464 games of playoff experience.
For the likes of Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Julian Champagnie, this is their first playoff rodeo. Even veteran guard De’Aaron Fox had limited playoff experience entering the 2026 postseason, as he played in just seven playoff games during his time with the Kings.
This is also the Spurs’ Mitch Johnson’s first postseason as a head coach. The Knicks’ Mike Brown has been through multiple lengthy playoff runs.
New York knows full well the ebbs and flows that occur in a playoff series and have a decided edge in experience.
“Defense!!! … Defense!!!”
Nothing says NBA basketball like the heavenly organ at Madison Square Garden goading Knicks fans into chanting, “Defense!!!! … Defense!!!!”
That chant will be deafening in Games 3 and 4 at MSG.
The Knicks have also brought their defensive show on the road in these playoffs. They are allowing just 100.6 points per game in the postseason, which is the best number out of all 16 teams that participated in the 2026 NBA playoffs. For reference, the Spurs have allowed 105.0 points per game thus far in the postseason, which is good for sixth on that list.
Obviously, the Knicks’ focal point defensively will be on Wemby, who is averaging 23.2 points in the playoffs thus far.
New York will throw Karl-Anthony Towns at Wemby plenty, but the key to this series could prove to be OG Anunoby. According to NBA writer Caitlin Cooper, there are 20 players that have defended Wembanyama for at least 100 half-court possessions. The player who Wemby has recorded the fewest points per 100 matchups against is Anunoby.
Why the Spurs Will Win
Best player on the floor
The MSG crowd can chant “MVP” at Brunson as much as they want, but there is no doubt about who the best player on the floor will be in this series. It is Wembanyama, who finished third in MVP voting this year behind SGA and Nikola Jokic.
Not only will Brunson have to barrel past Castle to get to the rim in this series, but he will often be met in the paint by Wemby, who is averaging 3.5 blocks per game in the postseason.
If the Spurs win the series, Wemby (22-years-old) will become the youngest player since former Spurs great Tim Duncan (23-years-old in 1999) to lead a team to the championship.
The Knicks’ baggage
This Knicks run has been magical. But if we get a Nick Anderson vs. the Rockets in 1995 moment, or a James Worthy turnover against the Celtics in 1984 moment from the Knicks early on in this series, talks of a basketball curse will surely arise.
The Knicks have not won the championship in 53 years, which is the fifth-longest but certainly the most-discussed title drought in the NBA.
The pressure to finally win it all will surely mount later in the series if the Knicks get out to an early series lead. We have seen plenty of recent instances in NBA Playoff series with teams coming-from-behind 3-2 or 3-1 to win. The New York pressure will not dissipate until Brunson is holding the Larry O’Brien Trophy over his head.
Can’t storm this Castle
Brunson had a grand ol’ time in the Eastern Conference Finals as he continually targeted James Harden, a player who will never be confused with Gary Payton, in terms of being a great all-time defensive player.
Stephon Castle ain’t “The Glove” either, but he is one of the top defensive guards in the NBA today.
Castle, in just his second NBA season out of UConn, has been superb on both ends of the floor in these playoffs. He has been tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best player in each round of the playoffs thus far, and has passed each test with flying colors.
In the Spurs’ first-round series against the Trail Blazers, Castle held Portland’s Deni Avdija to under his regular season averages in points, assists, and rebounds.
In San Antonio’s second-round series against the Timberwolves he held Anthony Edwards to 23.7 points per game (5.1 points below Ant’s regular season average).
And in the WCF, Castle helped hold Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 41 percent shooting, which was the second-worst percentage in SGA’s playoff career.
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