One of the best sports days of the calendar year is upon us, with the 2026 version of the Final Four going down this Saturday in Indianapolis.
This year’s National Semifinals are a strong slate, a pair of games between teams loaded with future NBA stars.
In the early window, UConn, fresh off their insane buzzer-beating victory over Duke, goes up against a Big Ten-tested Illinois team. The nightcap, however, is a true main event with a battle of No. 1 seeds Arizona and Michigan. This is Complex Bets’ Final Four Betting Preview.
(All odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publication.)
UConn vs. Illinois
- Start Time/TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/HBO Max
- Spread: Illinois (-2.0)
- Moneyline: UConn (+110),Illinois (-130)
- Total: Over 139.5 (-110), Under 139.5 (-110)
UConn has all the momentum in the world following Sunday’s unforgettable win over Duke, but sportsbooks have a ton of respect for Illinois as the Illini have been a -2 or -2.5 betting favorite all week.
That high regard is mostly due to the developments of the past two weeks as the Big Ten cemented the fact that it was the top conference in all the land with several of its teams making deep March Madness runs. The Illini went 15-5 in Big Ten play this season.
UConn, meanwhile, struggled down the stretch in a relatively weak Big East as it endured two losses to St. John’s, and curious missteps against Creighton and Marquette.
Huskies bettors are now banking on the idea that the Braylon Mullins Miracle will flip UConn back into the team that won 18 straight games at one point this season. Interestingly enough, UConn’s second victory in that 18-game win streak came on Nov. 28 against Illinois as the Huskies rolled to a 74-61 win.
Dan Hurley’s club is 16-22-0 ATS (Against the Spread) this season, while Brad Underwood’s boys are 22-14-0 ATS.
Michigan vs. Arizona
- Start Time/TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/HBO Max
- Spread: Michigan (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Arizona (+100), Illinois (-140)
- Total: Over 157.5 (-110), Under 157.5 (-110)
Back on Dec. 8, the AP top 25 poll had Arizona at No. 1, and Michigan at No. 2. Back on Feb. 9, the AP top 25 poll had Arizona at No. 1, and Michigan at No. 2.
The point is, for the brunt of this college basketball season, Arizona and Michigan have been regarded as the two top teams in the country.
Arizona opened as a -1.5 favorite for this Final Four clash, but the line flipped Michigan’s way by Monday. The Wolverines remain a slim -1.5 favorite.
The Wildcats had their way with a different Big Ten heavyweight last weekend as they smothered Purdue, 79-64. Tommy Lloyd’s crew has won by double-digits in all of its NCAA Tournament games thus far, and by an impressive average of 20.5 points. Arizona has, arguably, the best backcourt remaining in the tournament in Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries.
Michigan has also steamrolled the competition in this tourney, winning by an average of 22.5 points. The Wolverines are a bruising bunch that do their best work in the paint. Yaxel Lendeborg has been a beast all season as he is averaging 15.2 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. The Wolverines are also extremely deep, using at least nine players in most games.
Arizona is 20-12-1 ATS this season, while Michigan enters the game with an 18-20-0 ATS record.
