The Final Four is upon us, but what do hoop junkies lust for more than enjoying the moment? Forecasting the future, of course.
College basketball has become a futures market for NBA fans, with the discourse dedicated to predicting pro potential often overshadowing that of who is actually attaining All-American honors or even cutting down the nets.
Thankfully for NBA diehards, this year's Final Four is oozing with future lottery picks and second-round sleepers, from Michigan's massive frontcourt to Arizona's one-and-done freshman phenoms.
To contextualize the reservoir of talent playing in this year's Final Four, Complex offers a clean breakdown of all the ascending names at Arizona, UConn, Michigan, and Illinois, before they break big — or bust — at the next level, with NBA comps and upside evaluations included. These are the 10 Best NBA Prospects in the Final Four.
10.Jaden Bradley, Arizona, Point Guard
Mock Draft Range: Mid Second Round
NBA Comp: Ty Jerome meets Lindsey Hunter
The prototypical point guard is dead — or is it more in demand than ever? As currently constructed, the Houston Rockets are free-falling without a proper table setter. Just the same, the ability to have a heap of heady ballhandlers was the throughline between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers — the two teams in last year’s NBA Finals.
Which brings us to Jaden Bradley. The 6’ 3” Arizona floor general by way of Rochester, New York, is as galvanizing as they come, carrying all the big shot bona fides and assist-to-turnover ratio of college point guards from the past but with more height and better shooting.
9.Morez Johnson Jr., Michigan, Forward/Center
Mock Draft Range: Mid Second Round
Upside NBA Comp: DeAndre Jordan meets Isaiah Stewart
Morez Johnson Jr. dunks the ball with anger and electricity almost every damn time he touches it in the paint. The 6’ 9” big man has great hops, a high motor, and impressive feet. If he were two inches taller, he’d be in the mix for a lottery pick.
At 20 years old with a 250 lb frame, it’s tough to imagine a growth spurt is on the horizon. Nevertheless, Morez plays with a ferocious energy that his teammates feed off of and his opponents fear.
Could he be Ben Wallace off the bench or Beef Stew if he develops even more confidence in his outside shot? He’s already shown shades of each Motor City Madman this year in nearby Ann Arbor.
8.Aday Mara, Michigan, Center
Mock Draft Range: Late First Round to Early Second Round
Upside NBA Comp: Zach Edey meets Yang Hansen
There was a time when every NBA contender kept a bench full of big man reserves ready to throw six fouls at Shaq. A quarter century later, will Wemby be attracting a similar slew of ringers trying to keep the Frenchmen away from the Larry O’Brien?
If you’re Aday Mara, you have to hope so. The 7’ 3” Spaniard is no stiff, slouch, or any of the other words meant to undermine big men. He plays with pop, personality, and a softer touch than one might expect. He knows how to seal and actually has some post moves.
While you’d love to see more rebounds from someone that big — he only averages 6.8 a night — he’s a born rim protector and a throwback of sorts in how he weaponizes his size. Don’t sleep on his passing, either.
7.Alex Karaban, UConn, Wing
Mock Draft Range: Late First Round to Early Second Round
Upside NBA Comp: Joe Ingles meets Harrison Barnes
Rarely is the extension of the coach on the floor a 3-point shooting wing. Rarely is a first-round NBA Draft pick a 23-year-old with questionable athleticism. Alex Karaban is indeed rare.
The UConn super senior and surrogate son of Dan Hurley is a smart connector with a funky yet effective outside shot. He moves the ball, defends better than you’d expect, and plays with the readiness and scrap you’d expect from a guy who’s spent five years around Captain Brutality.
6.Motiejus Krivas, Arizona, Center
Mock Draft Range: Late First Round
Upside NBA Comp: Jock Landale meets Kelly Olynyk
Lithuanian prospect turned Arizona center Motiejus Krivas rarely looks like he’s playing too hard or too fast. Cucumber cool but always impactful, the 7’ 2” standout is as fundamentally sound and active on both sides of the ball as they come.
Living in the restricted area, the Tallest Building in Tucson is the steady center that college coaches salivate over. You can count one on one hand how many 3-pointers he’s made all year, but you can also count on him to star in his role without ever making it about him.
5.Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan, Stretch Big
Mock Draft Range: Late Lottery to Mid First Round
Upside NBA Comp: PJ Washington meets Miles Bridges
Yaxel Lendeborg dunks like a bully and shoots like a specialist. The 6’ 9” senior already has NBA size and athleticism that shouldn’t be allowed on a guy that strong. His high-testosterone downhill drives, mixed with highlight dunks, are enough to pop off the screen. The fact that he shoots 37% from behind the arc? That might make him a lottery pick.
While it’s unclear if Lendeborg is fleet of foot enough to guard NBA guards on switches or tall enough to moonlight as a traditional rim protector, he’s got all the other bases covered. The 23-year-old standout plays the game like a grown-ass man on both sides of the ball.
4.Koa Peat, Arizona, Forward/Center
Mock Draft Range: Late Lottery to Mid First Round
Upside NBA Comp: Aaron Gordon meets Obi Toppin
Arizona freshman forward Koa Pete provided the first ‘Wow’ moment of the NCAA basketball season when he hung 30 points and 10 boards on the defending National Champs in his collegiate debut.
The 6’8” kid from Chandler, Arizona, instantly flew up draft boards, eating a Florida frontline with more 7-footers than most NBA squads. Over the season, his numbers came back down to earth, calming the buzz but keeping him in the conversation.
There’s not a lot of impressive post-ups, outside shooting, or bag work, which casts Koa as either a hand-off hub center or dunker spot spark plug at the next level. He’s already a top-tier screener, roller, and finisher with glimpses of a floater and a fallaway, making one wonder just what he could develop into with more time and space.
3.Braylon Mullins, UConn, Shooting Guard
Mock Draft Range: Late Lottery to Mid First Round
Upside NBA Comp: Jordan Hawkins meets Mike Miller
If by chance basketball doesn’t work out for Braylon Mullins, he has a bright future in Olympic distance running. The 6’ 6” freshman from Indiana who’s already become royalty in Storrs is never not moving, running the floor with an Energizer Bunny battery that Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton would respect.
So why is he racking up steps as if he has an NIL deal with FitBit? He can shoot the lights out of the ball at a high volume. While the viral buzzer beater against Duke puts truth to power, it’s the benefits of racing the floor like there are no red lights and letting it fly with the ultimate green light that make Mullins instantly impactful at UConn.
A quick release, square base, and real lift make him one of the more exciting jump shooters, not just in the Final Four, but in college basketball this decade. Analytically, his actual shooting numbers leave a lot to be desired, but the rate he’s spraying it and the mechanics he’s displaying are incredibly enticing at only 19.
2.Brayden Burries, Arizona, Combo Guard
Mock Draft Range: Late Lottery to Mid First Round
Upside NBA Comp: Devin Booker meets Anthony Black
Don’t let the baby face fool you, Brayden Burries has some grit to him. A three-level scorer unafraid to flush it on centers or create space in the midrange with a subtle elbow, Burries blends smooth shooting with an explosive edge. He’s always on, always attacking, always firing.
Already 20 as a freshman and only 6’4 as a combo guard, Burries is a risk on paper. Thankfully, he’s a dog in reality. Unafraid to create contact while still shooting 40% from downtown, the Arizona bucket-getter has traces of Miles Simon, Salim Stoudamire, and Gilbert Arenas in college. How it translates to the pros is anyone’s guess.
1.Keaton Wagler, Illinois, Combo Guard
Mock Draft Range: Top 10 Pick
Upside NBA Comp: Kevin Martin meets Bones Hyland, but could be Ray Allen meets Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Ever heard of Keaton Wagler before this season? Same. The three-star recruit-turned sexiest name in the NBA Draft has blossomed into one of the smoothest scorers in all of college basketball, averaging just under 18 points per game while shooting 40% from downtown.
The last part is the kicker: not only is he insanely efficient from outside, but he’s also draining 3s at every degree of difficulty. Jab step pull up from 25 feet out? Cash. Initiating contact to create space on the stepback? Water. Catch and shoot on the swing? Might as well ring it up ahead of time.
Wagler, who is a tall guard at 6’ 6”, benefits from his out-of-nowhere ascent yet plays with the poise of a guy who knew he’d be here all along. He’s comfortable pulling up from far behind the arc but also spins through the lane and can finish in traffic with both ferocity and finesse.
His handle and height could make him a point guard project at the next level, but his ability to space the court and attack close outs seems like a safe bet off the ball. Will he fill out and be an NBA lead guard or make a living getting loose off swings? The brazen blend of bag and efficiency is tantalizing to NBA execs.
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