Image via Getty/Ethan Miller
1.
The Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes are officially underway. The NBA regular season has come to an end and playoff basketball is set to kick off this weekend. While half of the association is prepping for games this weekend, the other half has started its offseason plans. With several teams’ attention turned to the draft in June, our Complex Sports team decided to put together a projection of the first round.
2.
The lottery is scheduled to be finalized in May so for our first version, we used Tankathon.com to simulate the selection order.
3.
The San Antonio Spurs have been rewarded with the first pick of the draft. While any team at No. 1 is essentially locked to pick Victor Wembanyama, the following picks could change based off which team selects in what spot. Another development of our lottery simulation is the Mavericks losing their first round pick because it was outside the top 10. The Knicks now own their pick at No. 13 as a result of the Kristaps Porzingis trade. The Pistons, the team with the highest odds for the No. 1 pick, dropped to No. 5 in our simulation. Sorry Detroit fans.
4.
With all that being said, here’s our first mock draft of the season.
5.San Antonio Spurs - Victor Wembanyama, Metropolitans 92 (France)
Position: Forward
Height: 7’4”
Weight: 196 pounds
Age: 19
This selection has been a no-brainer for over a year. Victor Wembanyama is one of the most hyped prospects in NBA history. Standing at 7-foot-4, Wemby moves like a wing, shoots like a wing, and protects the rim at a high level. He’s the ultimate unicorn and no matter what team lands the No. 1 spot, they will be selecting Wemby. Wemby would inject life into a Spurs that has been nearly unwatchable the past few years.
6.Portland Trail Blazers – Scoot Henderson, G-League Ignite
Position: Point Guard
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 196 pounds
Age: 19
This pick might come as a surprise to readers, considering that the Blazers already have Damian Lillard at point guard, but there could be a tough decision to make this summer. If the Blazers keep this pick, drafting Henderson and moving forward with him, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons is probably the best direction for the franchise to go in and trading Lillard.
7.Houston Rockets – Brandon Miller, Alabama
Position: Forward
Height: 6’9”
Weight: 200 pounds
Age: 20
Brandon Miller’s game doesn’t need much explanation. In a league dominated by wings, Miller is a 6-foot-9 do-it-all forward who can handle the ball, shoot at an elite level and has flashed the ability to be a high-level playmaker for others. The combination of size, length and shooting makes him a lay-up top three pick.
8.Indiana Pacers - Ausar Thompson, Overtime Elite
9.Detroit Pistons - Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite
10.Charlotte Hornets - Jarace Walker, Houston
Position: Forward
Height: 6’8”
Weight: 240 pounds
Age: 19
Walker already possesses an NBA-ready body at 6-foot-8, 240 pounds. Combine that with his athleticism and the fact he played for Kelvin Sampson at Houston, he will be an impact multi-positional defender from day one in the NBA. His 34.7 3-point percentage also shows untapped potential as a shooter at the next level.
11.Orlando Magic -Taylor Hendricks, UCF
Position: Forward
Height: 6’9”
Weight: 210 pounds
Age: 19
The Magic have made it quite clear that they value length & versatility at every possession. Few prospects pair those things as well as Taylor Hendricks does at his 6-foot-9 frame. An average of 1.8 three pointers made per game 39 percent and 1.7 blocks per game make him one of the most unique players in the draft and with the Magic having two picks in the lottery going for upside with their higher pick makes sense. The length Fultz, Wagner, Banchero, Hendricks, & Carter would present defensively embodies what the NBA has become in 2023.
12.Washington Wizards - Cason Wallace, Kentucky
Position: Point Guard
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 190 pounds
Age: 19
The Wizards have desperately tried to find a point guard to pair with Bradley Beal longterm for years. For the first time since drafting John Wall No. 1 in 2010 we have the Wizards opting to find their point guard of the future in the draft. Cason Wallace’s defense and spot-up shooting are the skills that can translate from Day 1. While there’s reasons to be skeptical of his upside as a creator, he could be anywhere in between Jrue Holiday and Marcus Smart offensively once he reaches his prime.
13.Utah Jazz - Cam Whitmore, Villanova
Position: Forward
Height: 6’7”
Weight: 215 pounds
Age: 18
Outside of Wembanyama and Henderson, Whitmore could possess the most upside of any player in the draft. At 18 years old, he already has a grown man’s body but has elite athleticism combined with legitimate ability to create offense for himself from beyond the arc and at the rim. Do not be surprised if he turns out to be one of the stars of this draft three years down the line.
14.OKC Thunder - Gradey Dick, Kansas
Position: Forward
Height: 6’8”
Weight: 195 pounds
Age: 19
Gradey Dick fits the modern NBA game perfectly. He’s a 6-foot-8 sharpshooter with respectable athleticism. Off those qualities alone you can find a longtime role for him in the NBA. He shot 40 percent from deep this season despite having his share of erratic shooting performances, his shot will fall on the next level. You’ll have to see if he can grow in the shot creation category but there’s a role for him in this league. OKC has one of the best young cores in the league and Dick will fit in well as another 6-foot-8 player that can shoot the rock.
15.Orlando Magic (via Bulls) - Jordan Hawkins, UConn
Position: Guard
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 195 pounds
Age: 20
Jordan Hawkins was arguably a borderline lottery talent before the tournament and his play in the Big Dance did nothing but strengthen that case as he averaged 16.3 points on 66.3 percent true shooting. The 6-foot-5 guard’s shooting ability should make him a seamless offensive fit in Orlando and his defensive ability flashed through the year as well. The Magic taking a player with a defined skillset and high floor (high ceiling as well) at 11 after betting on upside with their seventh pick makes too much sense.
16.Toronto Raptors (via Wolves) - Rayan Rupert, New Zealand Breakers
Position: Guard
Height: 6’6”
Weight: 190 pounds
Age: 18
Rayan Rupert fits the mold of the type of player the Raptors have drafted in the past. He’s raw, he’s extremely young, and he has elite physical tools (7-foot-3 wingspan). With names like Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, & Chris Boucher, very few teams have developed players as well as the Raptors have in recent years. It’s easy to see Masai Ujiri betting on Rupert’s upside with his staff’s track record of developing and drafting.
17.New York Knicks - Jett Howard, Michigan
Position: Guard
Height: 6’8”
Weight: 215 pounds
Age: 19
Jett Howard can do something his father and former head coach, Juwan, couldn’t do, and that’s shoot the ball at high clip from deep. At his size, Jett brings great upside to the next level and his shot-making ability gives him a shot to be a really good player on the next level. Jett shot 37 percent from deep this season with a high volume. He’d be a good fit for a Knicks team that ranked 19th in three-point percentage this season.
18.New Orleans Pelicans - Dereck Lively II, Duke
Position: Center
Height: 7’1”
Weight: 230 pounds
Age: 19
Coming out of high school, Dereck Lively II was the No. 1 player in the class according to ESPN. Lively got off to a slow start at Duke, hampered by injuries and adjustment to the college game, which led to people questioning what they saw in him as a prospect. That quickly dissolved in the second half of the season when Lively started to dominate games defensively. He won games without scoring. He’s still very raw offensively but his ability to switch on to perimeter players to go along with his elite rim protection are valuable traits to make an instant impact. He also has potential as a shooter which would skyrocket his value at his size.
19.Atlanta Hawks - Keyonte George, Baylor
Position: Guard
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 185 pounds
Age: 19
George was up-and-down as a freshman, shooting just 37.6 percet from the field and 33.8 percent from 3-point range. But there is no denying his offensive skill set, and it’s fair to wonder if most of his inefficiency boils down to shot selection and refining his game. He has unlimited range on his jumper and can create his own offense without screen.
20.Utah Jazz (via Timberwolves) - Anthony Black, Arkansas
Position: Guard/Wing
Height: 6’7”
Weight: 198 pounds
Age: 19
Anthony Black’s lack of shooting is a concern, but he makes up for it in every other area of the game. He’s a quality playmaker for himself and others, can defend multiple positions on the perimeter, and has one of the highest IQ’s of any player in the draft. More aggressiveness on the court could take his game to another level.
21.Los Angeles Lakers - Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
Position: Guard
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 185 pounds
Age: 18
Smith Jr. experienced a rollercoaster of a season at Arkansas, battling through injuries and trying to find a role on the team after missing time. He wasn’t particularly efficient as a freshman (37.6 percent shooting), but he was a consensus top-five recruit. That pedigree combined with a team believing he is more capable than what he was able to show at Arkansas is enough for somebody to take flier on him. He can score from all three levels on the floor, is most comfortable in the mid-range, and has intriguing length.
22.Houston Rockets – Kris Murray, Iowa
Position: Forward
Height: 6’8”
Weight: 215 pounds
Age: 21
Although they’re identical twins, Kris Murray is not like his brother Keegan on the court. With that being said, Kris can still have a solid NBA career. He’s still provides a team with floor spacing at his size and was a great rebounder at Iowa. He’s a better shooter than his numbers show last year and he was definitely hampered by injuries early in the season. Even as a rookie, he provides some maturity to a Rockets that’s really young.
23.Golden State Warriors - Noah Clowney, Alabama
Position: Forward
Height: 6’10”
Weight: 210 pounds
Age: 18
Clowney is the prototypical stretch big man prospect. At 6 ‘10 he has the height and length to play both the power forward and center position, while flashing potential as a shooter at the next level. As his body develops, so will his game, making him a viable pro and rotational big man.
24.Miami Heat - Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Position: Guard
Height: 6’6”
Weight: 213 pounds
Age: 19
The Kyle Lowry experiment in Miami has not gone according to plan and the Heat desperately need additional shot creation to bolster an offensive unit that ranked 25th in offensive rating this season. That’s where Jalen Hood-Schifino fits in. His size and shot creation are his best attributes, and despite being a 33. percent 3-point shooter in his lone season at Indiana, I believe that he’s a better shooter than his percentages indicated. The Heat won’t pass on a rare opportunity to add a high upside player who also helps fill a need at this range of the draft in this scenario.
25.Brooklyn Nets - Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine
Position: Forward
Height: 6’7”
Weight: 195 pounds
Age: 20
Maxwell Lewis is firmly a lottery talent in my eyes. He has three-level scoring potential, and despite his defense being more about potential than reality at this point of his development, it’s hard to believe with his agility and size that he isn’t eventually a positive on defense. He’s good from two (52.6 percent), above average from three (34.8 percentage), and gets to the line (4.4 free throw attempts per game.) I’m buying all the stock and despite the Nets being stacked with wings they should go for the best player available here.
26.Brooklyn Nets (via Suns) - Dariq Whitehead, Duke
Position: Guard/Wing
Height: 6’6”
Weight: 195 pounds
Age: 18
If Dariq Whitehead had a healthy season at Duke, he’d likely go in the top seven and as early at No. 5. We never really saw the real Dariq Whitehead at Duke even when he had big games. Whitehead didn’t come into Duke as a shooter but he shot the lights when he was on the floor, shooting 43% percent from deep. While he may not live up to that number, if the jumper continues to improve and he regains his confidence and athleticism back, this will be an absolute steal at No. 22 for the Nets.
27.Portland Trail Blazers - GG Jackson, South Carolina
Position: Forward
Height: 6’9”
Weight: 215 pounds
Age: 18
After reclassifying in high school, GG Jackson comes in as one of the younger prospects in the draft. He looked young at many points this season playing for a struggling South Carolina team but the upside is there. He has potential to seriously stretch the floor and he’s very-skilled freak athlete. Give him an opportunity to learn and fail and you could get the best out of him.
28.Sacramento Kings - Andre Jackson, UConn
Position: Guard/Wing
Height: 6’6”
Weight: 210 pounds
Age: 21
This might seem like a reach but when you get to this portion of the first round, you start to look for players that have a specific trait to fill a need. National champion Andre Jackson is a superb defender and perfect glue guy for winning teams. The Kings are a winning team that still has its struggles defensively. Adding a guy like Jackson that can defend off the bat and be that glue guy on the floor would be a great fit.
29.Memphis Grizzlies - Colby Jones, Xavier
Position: Guard/Forward
Height: 6’6
Weight: 207 pounds
Age; 20 Years Old
Colby Jones could be one of the best plug and play pieces in the draft. He’s a great connective player which can best be shown by complimentary skills such as his shooting (37.8 percent from 3), rebounding (5.7 rebounds), and his passing (4.4 assists per game compared to only 2.3 turnovers.) He’s an efficient basketball player that does all the little things well and aside from the Ziaire Williams pick in 2021 the Grizzlies have shown that they like going best player available in the first round.
30.Indiana Pacers (via Cavs) - Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Position: Forward
Height: 6’6
Weight: 235 pounds
Age: 19
Brice Sensabaugh is an interesting prospect. He’s got a husky frame but isn’t necessarily a bruiser. In fact, he was one of the better shooters in college basketball as a freshman and overall scorers in this draft. He’s a pure bucket getter. The questions will be with his ability to guard wings or interior guys.
31.Utah Jazz (via 76ers) - Kobe Bufkin, Michigan
Position: Guard
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 194 Pounds
Age: 19
Kobe Bufkin is one of the most underrated players in the draft. Offensively, he’s a good finisher, good catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter, good at attacking closeouts, and he can create for himself. Defensively, he should be able to guard both guard spots in the NBA. The huge jump from his freshman Year to his sophomore Year indicate he’s willing to put the work in to improve and despite being a sophomore, he will only be 19 on draft night. You’re betting on his upside.
32.Charlotte Hornets (via Nuggets) - Leonard Miller, G-League Ignite
Position: Forward
Height: 6’10’
Weight: 211 Pounds
Age: 19
Leonard Miller to the Hornets is a dream fit. His experience playing alongside an elite lead guard & playmaker like Scoot should ensure that his transition playing alongside LaMelo Ball should be seamless. The Hornets need as much versatility at the forward spots as possible with the Miles Bridges situation still affecting them. Drafting Jarace Walker & Leonard Miller in the same draft is a huge step in improving your forward depth in both the short term and the long term.
33.Indiana Pacers (via Celtics) - James Nnaji, Barcelona/Nigeria
Position: Center
Height: 6’10”
Weight: 225 pounds
Age: 18
James Nnaji is the second best international big man in this class after Wemby. He’s a raw a talent who will need some years of development as the game is still fairly new to him but the potential is there. He’s playing in the second best league in the world. His physicality to go along with his defensive potential may be worth the wait.
34.Los Angeles Clippers (via Bucks)- Terquavion Smith, NC State
Position: Guard
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 165 pounds
Age: 20
Do not be deterred by Smith’s size, he plays much bigger than his listed 165-pound weight. An explosive scorer, Smith can light teams up from deep but also has a lightning quick first step that allows him to get by defenders and to the rim in the blink of an eye. He will need to rein in his shot selection and become more efficient, while also keeping his head in the game when things begin to go south on the court. But the talent is undeniable, and he is one of the best scorers in this draft.