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The NFL Draft hasn’t happened yet and we don’t know the schedule yet, but today is a great day because the win totals for the 2021 season are officially out. Basically, these are a win total mark set by the oddsmakers in Vegas and you either bet on if a team will win more or less games than the number. For instance, the Chiefs win total is set at 12. So you’d either bet on if the Chiefs will win more or less than 12 games.
As we said up top, this is before the draft and months before the season, so a lot could change here, but we’re going to have some fun and share super early predictions on the over/unders for every NFL team’s win total that came out today. Some of these might look crazy come November, but we’re ready to go out on a limb here. Also, remember that there are 17 games this year, so the numbers will look a little higher than we’re all used to. Let’s get to it.
Win totals are out @WilliamHillUS
12 - KC
11.5 -TB
11 - Balt, GB
10.5 -Buff, Rams
10 - Cle, Indy, SF, Sea
9.5 -Dal, NO, Ten
9 - LAC, MIA, NE, Pitt
8.5 -Min
8 - Ari, LV, WFT
7.5 - Car, Chi, Den
7 - Atl, NYG, Philly
6.5 -Cin
6 - Jax, NYJ
5 -Det, Hou
— David Bearman ESPN (@DBearmanESPN) April 16, 2021
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under: 12
Prediction: Over
Starting out with a bang. Over 12 might seem like a crazy bet but assuming that Patrick Mahomes is healthy, can you really see the Chiefs losing five regular season games next year? They’ve been dominant in the regular season since he took over as QB and there’s no real reason to think that’s going to change now. Let’s pencil in the Chiefs at 13-4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under: 11.5
Prediction: Over
The Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers had one hell of an offseason where they were able to re-sign every major free agent they had on the market. They’re officially bringing the entire band back together and will obviously be a major contender to win another Super Bowl. With Dree Brees retiring the NFC South got a bit easier, too. We’re in on the over here.
Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under: 11
Prediction: Push
Yes, this can be considered a cop out, but 11 wins seems right on line with the Ravens next season. This opinion could change after the draft, but they still need to add a bonafide No. 1 WR to help Lamar Jackson on the outside. Not to mention they lost both Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue in free agency, which makes EDGE a big priority. The Ravens are always good, so it’s tough to bet against them again this year.
Green Bay Packers
Over/Under: 11
Prediction: Over
There will continue to be plenty of questions about Aaron Rodgers’ future in Green Bay throughout this upcoming season, but for now, it looks like they’re keeping the MVP around. Why wouldn’t they? This seems like a good over bet, especialy if the Packers actually decide to help get Rodgers some weapons during the draft. Guess we’ll see what they decide to do.
Buffalo Bills
Over/Under: 10.5
Prediction: Over
This feels like an easy over bet. Like, really easy. The Bills are still the class of the AFC East and with an extra game on the schedule, it should be no issue to get to 11 wins, especially if Josh Allen continues to play like an MVP QB. Take this over bet to the bank.
Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under: 10.5
Prediction: Over
Feel like we’re taking a lot of overs right now, but how could you not bet on the Rams to win 11 games? Adding Matthew Stafford to a Sean McVay offense? That seems like easy money, even though they did lose John Johnson and Troy Hill from their top-ranked defense. This also is a brutal division, but we have no reason to believe the Rams shouldn’t be the favorite at this point.
Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 10
Prediction: Over
Call me a homer all you want, but the Browns had a great offseason and that’s before we even get to the draft. The defense was a major concern last season and Andrew Berry set about to fix that issue with the signings of Jadeveon Clowney, Troy Hill and John Johnson. While the defense should be much improved, the offense will also get Odell Beckham Jr. back in the fold. Not to mention Baker Mayfield will not be changing to another offensive system during an offseason for the first time in his career. Take this over and don’t think twice.
Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under: 10
Prediction: Under
We have an under. The Colts made a big splash this offseason trading for Carson Wentz, and while a new system might do him well, it’s hard to ignore how bad he was last season. Things could get shaky in Indy if Wentz turns out to not be the answer like they hoped.
San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under: 10
Prediction: Under
This is a tough one. Last season, the 49ers had about as bad of injury luck as a team can get during a season. Nobody was healthy and they still competed in a tough division. We all know they’re taking a QB at No. 3 in the NFL Draft in a few weeks, though we don’t know who. We’re leaning under here because of how tough the NFC West is and the uncertainty at QB for the 49ers.
Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under: 10
Prediction: Over
We already mentioned how tough the NFC West is, but damn. Three teams near the top of these win total marks. While it looked like Russell Wilson might be on his way out of Seattle earlier this offseason, they seemed to have figure things out. With Russ in tow, we have to go over here.
Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under: 9.5
Prediction: Over
It’s really a shame that the Dallas Cowboys can never go 8-8 again. However sad that may be, we are going with the over here. This team is too talented and with the rest of the division a bit down, the Cowboys should be able to take advantage as long as Dak is back healthy from his ankle injury.
New Orleans Saints
Over/Under: 9.5
Prediction: Under
Sorry, Saints fans, but we’re going under on this win total. Dree Brees is gone and it looks like Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will be playing QB next season. While Winston could have a nice rebound year as the starting QB, we don’t fully trust Sean Payton to go away from Hill completely. Under us.
Tennessee Titans
Over/Under: 9.5
Prediction: Over
We’re going over here. The Titans are bringing a good majority of their core back and added Bud Dupree to their defensive line. With Deshaun Watson’s future in doubt and the Jaguars likely still rebuilding, this division isn’t all that tough. We’ll bet on Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under: 9
Prediction: Under
This is the area of the board where it gets tough. 9-8 sounds like a pretty good prediction for the Chargers record next season, but we’re not going to do any more pushes here, so it’s an under. Justin Herbert looks to be really good and if their new coaching staff is the real deal then the Chargers could very well win 10 games next season.
Miami Dolphins
Over/Under: 9
Prediction: Over
This really all comes down to Tua. The Dolphins were nearly a playoff team last season and will be able to add some real talent with two picks in the first-round of the draft, but fact is, the division is going to be better. Still, we’re taking Miami to win over nine games this season and for Tua to take a leap.
New England Patriots
Over/Under: 9
Prediction: Under
We all know what the Patriots did in free agency. They spent money. A lot of it. Traditionally, that’s not how you see teams build successfully in the NFL, but they had money to spend and holes to fill. Still, we’re going under here because of the QB situation. They added weapons for Cam Newton, but can he physically hold up at this point? That’s a major question mark.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under: 9
Prediction: Under
Did you know that the Pittsburgh Steelers have never finished under .500 under Mike Tomlin? We’re predicting that to end this season. The defense is still good, but it’s pretty wild to us that they’re going to run it back with Ben Roethlisberger at QB. We just don’t see that ending well.
Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under: 8.5
Prediction: Over
We’re in the range where these things could just go either way. We’ll go with the over here because this division isn’t great outside of the Packers and it shouldn’t be that hard for the Vikings to get to a 9-8 record. Regardless, if this team misses the playoffs again then we should probably see the end of Kirk Cousins in Minny.
Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under: 8
Prediction: Over
This feels like a make or break year for Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona. They probably shouldn’t have missed the playoffs last season, but collapsed down the stretch. There’s no question they have the talent to win nine games, but we don’t feel great about this over pick.
Las Vegas Raiders
Over/Under: 8
Prediction: Under
If you didn’t know, things haven’t been great for the Raiders under Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock. They’ve had a number of odd draft selections and can never seem to finish the season strong. We’re going with a hard under here.
Washington Football Team
Over/Under: 8
Prediction: Over
As we said with the Dallas Cowboys, the NFC East isn’t great and all these teams will likely be grouped together for most of the season. We’re in on the Washington Football Team going over eight wins, though. They have a very good defense and weapons on offense for Ryan Fitzpatrick to play with. This team might actually be pretty fun.
Carolina Panthers
Over/Under: 7.5
Prediction: Under
We just don’t see anything that special going on in Carolina. They traded a 2nd round pick for Sam Darnold, who will now be their starting QB. Is he that much better than Teddy Bridgewater right now? We’re not convinced. Take the under.
Chicago Bears
Over/Under: 7.5
Prediction: Under
Poor Bears fans. Like, seriously. We feel bad. Somehow the Bears front office decided to roll out Andy Dalton as their starting QB for next season, which probably isn’t going to end well. To go from almost getting Russell Wilson in a trade to Dalton is just a total bummer. We’ll go under here.
Denver Broncos
Over/Under: 7.5
Prediction: Under
This is almost impossible to do before the draft because the Broncos could easily get a QB better than Drew Lock in two weeks. Until that happens, we have to go with the under, though this team has tons of talent.
Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under: 7
Prediction: Over
The Falcons have a new coach and GM in town and nobody really knows what they’re going to do in the draft in two weeks. We do know that they still have Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and are in a division that will be down a little bit. We like this over, especially if they add someone like Kyle Pitts to this roster.
New York Giants
Over/Under: 7
Prediction: Over
While we’re still not sure if Daniel Jones is the answer at QB for the Giants, we’re going with the over here. They’re in a division that will be tight all season and still have a very good defense, plus Saquon Barkley will be returning to the lineup.
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under: 7
Prediction: Under
This is a total toss up. The Eagles seem like a complete mess right now and though Jalen Hurts showed some promise last season, it looks like they’re building towards the future by stacking up draft picks. We’ll lean towards this under right now.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under: 6.5
Prediction: Over
This is an absolutely brutal divison to play in right now, but we actually like this over for the Bengals. Granted, they have to keep Joe Burrow healthy and protected, but this team should be better in his second season, especially if they add a dynamic playmaker at No. 5 overall in the draft. The Steelers might legit come in last in the AFC North this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under: 6
Prediction: Under
Even if Trevor Lawrence plays beyond the wildest expectations set for him, it’s hard to take the Jaguars over here. The team will still be in a rebuild this season and just has too many holes to fill in one offseason. They’ll be better for sure, but we have to go with the under.
New York Jets
Over/Under: 6.5
Prediction: Under
Like the Jaguars, the Jets will probably be better this season than last. It’s honestly hard to be worse than they were last season, but that still doesn’t mean we’re taking the over here. The Jets really need to nail this draft and seem to be putting all of their faith in BYU QB Zach Wilson. Let’s see how it works out.
Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 5
Prediction: Under
It’s hard to tell what the Detroit Lions’ plan is for this season, but it doesn’t appear that they’ve going to be very good. Jared Goff is a servicable QB, but the rest of the roster is pretty low on talent. They could be setting themselves up for a potential No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft. Start scouting those college QBs, Lions fans.
Houston Texans
Over/Under: 5
Prediction: Under
This is about as tricky as it gets. We have no idea if Deshaun Watson will play football next season as the sexual misconduct lawsuits against him play out. Even still, this roster just isn’t very good. Without Watson, we see only a couple of wins at most.