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Complex Sports is officially getting into the college football prediction game. It's been an area that we haven't really jumped fully into over the years, but that's about to change. We love it and with the official playoff rankings coming out every Tuesday night, we're serving up our very own predictions based on what we're seeing week in and week out. Enjoy.
Let's talk about this past weekend. Saturday was a special one in college football. Not only were there two sets of 8-0 matchups for the first time in college football history, but the ‘Game of the Century’ part two lived up to everything we wanted it to be. Joe Burrow winning the Heisman in Tuscaloosa. Thaddeus Moss with that incredible, kind of out-of-bounds catch that no one really understood.
With four weekends of college football left before the committee’s Selection Day on December 8, we still have a bunch of questions left. Is there any team that can trip up the Buckeyes? Will Minnesota keep this improbable run going? Can enough chaos get Bama into the College Football Playoff?
With the official week 12 college football rankings set to drop later tonight, we're rolling out the first edition of our weekly predictions, which we'll be doing all the way up to the postseason.
First Two Out
No. 6 - Oregon Ducks
Oregon has a pretty solid claim to be in front of Alabama and if they win the Pac-12 Championship come December, they almost certainly will be. The committee has set a precedent for taking injuries into account and looking past early setbacks. Oregon’s only loss this season was in their first game against No. 12 Auburn in which they were hurting at wide receiver and still only lost on the game’s final drive. If Oregon runs the table and beats No. 8 Utah in the Pac-12 ‘ship, it should knock Bama out of consideration and give Oregon a decent chance to nab the last CFP slot...depending on how OU looks.
No. 5 - Alabama Crimson Tide
The drop-off after losing to the Tigers is minimal, but don’t get it twisted, Tide fans: Bama’s CFP hopes are very much in jeopardy. Let’s assume Clemson, LSU, and Ohio State all run the table, win their respective conference championship, and become CFP locks (which is very possible). One-loss Alabama (without winning their division) shouldn’t get in over a one-loss Pac-12 champion Oregon/Utah AND a one-loss Big 12 champion Oklahoma. Yes, Bama’s only loss of the season would have been by a single score to the No. 1 team, but still—conference championships HAVE to matter. You can’t send a message saying a Big 12 or Pac-12 team has to go undefeated to get in. Bama needs chaos–and a lot of it.
No. 4 - Georgia Bulldogs
This No. 4 spot is tricky and people are going to be all over the place trying to decide who deserves the final CFP spot. Let's get something straight: Alabama is one of the four best teams in the country. However, they don’t currently have the resume to support that. Georgia has beat No. 10 Florida and No. 15 Notre Dame, but they have very little margin for error. A probable showdown with LSU in the SEC championship game looms and a second loss will almost certainly knock them out. Don't be surprised if Bama climbs to this spot at some point over the next month.
No. 3 - Clemson Tigers
What a weird year for the defending champs. They're still undefeated, but haven't really blown anyone away with their play. Trevor Lawrence continues to improve with every game, but it seems like the committee isn't just going to hand them anything this season. They come in at No. 3 this week and appear to be a lock for the playoffs with their remaining schedule.
No. 2 - The Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is probably the most talented team in all of college football. Also, remember when Maryland looked kind of dangerous those first two games this year? Lol. After Ohio State almost covered the spread in the first half, anyone wishing this game versus the Terrapins would be like last year’s nailbiter probably changed the channel. The Buckeyes’ season will come down to its last two weekends—a matchup at home versus Penn State (last three matchups determined by a combined 5 points) and then a trip to the Big House to face a Wolverines team playing for pride. A potential matchup with Minnesota in the Big 10 title game could look good on paper, but could the Gophers actually threaten the Buckeyes? Going to be a fun few weeks.
No. 1 - LSU Tigers
Man, that LSU-Bama game lived up to the hype. Joe Burrow, officially your runaway Heisman favorite, led the Tigers to 559 yards total offense—the most against an Alabama team since 2014. It’s hard not to see this team going undefeated into the playoffs, but Georgia will serve as one last test in the SEC Championship game. As long as Clyde Edwards-Helaire keeps putting up the numbers he does (four touchdowns against a Bama defense) and making the plays his team needs—y’all might have to turn on your subtitles for Coach O’s speech as he lifts that trophy come January.