Image via Getty/Steven Ryan
The Jays are back! Literally, as the team returns to Toronto this week for Friday night’s home opener against Texas—something that didn’t feel like a sure thing as recently as a few months ago. In the end, no games were canceled, Opening Day was pushed back a week and now here we are, with a full season’s worth of baseball set to be played at the Rogers Centre for the first time in two years.
But we’re also talking in a more existential sense too… There’s a swagger to this year’s club that we haven’t seen since the good old days when Joey Bats, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion were leading Toronto to back-to-back ALCS appearances.
After the Jays missed the playoffs by a single effing game last year, it’ll be an easier road to the postseason in ‘22, thanks to the playoff field expanding to 12 teams (a concession negotiated during the offseason lockout). But Toronto’s goal this season isn’t just to make the playoffs—it’s to straight-up dominate them. Or, as their star first baseman recently put it, “Last year was the trailer, now you guys are going to see the movie.”
It’s not just the Jays, or their fans, who have big expectations for the team this year either. Toronto’s routinely shown up at the top of the preseason power rankings, becoming a trendy World Series pick. Vegas currently has them anywhere from 8-1 to 10-1 to win it all, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers.
So, to recap: the Jays think the Jays will go deep into the playoffs. The pundits and predictive models think the Jays will go deep into the playoffs. The sportsbooks think the Jays will go deep into the playoffs. Here are nine good reasons why you should be inclined to believe them.
They Had the AL East’s Best Offseason
Not that that’s saying much, considering the Yankees went in expecting to land one or more of Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Javier Báez and Trevor Story, and ended up with a now-36-year-old Donaldson instead. The Red Sox got Story, but lost Kyle Schwarber and Eduardo Rodríguez in the process. The Rays finally ponied up for a young star, but not their seven-time All-Star DH. The Orioles mostly sat out yet another offseason (a storied annual tradition!).
The Jays, meanwhile, weathered some significant blows – losing the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Robbie Ray, and Marcus Semien and his 45 HRs, 102 RBIs and Gold Glove-winning-defense at second base – but still managed to replenish the roster with a couple big pieces of their own. And while winning the offseason doesn’t necessarily translate to winning in the postseason, it’s helped raise the Jays’ ceiling, making them an early AL East favorite.
They Added Another All-Star to Their Infield
The last time the Jays traded for an All-Star third baseman from Oakland, it’s safe to say things worked out fairly well. And while no one’s expecting an MVP-caliber season from Matt Chapman, who’s coming off a down year at the plate in 2021, the three-time Gold Glove winner is still an elite defender, in the truest sense of the term. We’re talking no-other-player-has-recorded-more-defensive-runs-saved-since-2018 good. So yeah, that’s pretty good.
They Reloaded the Rotation
There’s no point in attempting to find a silver lining in the Jays losing last year’s AL Cy Young winner; there isn’t one. But the Jays did well for themselves replacing Ray with fellow top free agent Kevin Gausman, who boasts ace upside and #2 starter floor, and signing Yusei Kikuchi as this year’s designated lefty reclamation project. Add in a full season from last year’s big trade deadline acquisition José Berríos, an ascending breakout candidate in Alek Manoah, and Hyun Jin Ryu, who was a Cy Young finalist as recently as 2019 and 2020, and the Jays go into the season with one of baseball’s best rotations. And they’ve still got former top-10 prospect Nate Pearson waiting in the wings.
The Lineup’s Still Stacked
Losing Semien hurts, but don’t get it twisted, the Jays still boast one of the most loaded 1 through 9s in all of baseball. This is a lineup that featured three Silver Sluggers, the AL hits leaders in Bo Bichette, a legit Triple Crown contender in Vlad Guerrero Jr., and 7 players who hit at least 20 home runs last year… and yet, it’s entirely possible they hit even better this season. The only concern at the moment is how righty-heavy the lineup is, but Toronto’s working on it, adding a couple low-risk lefty bats in Raimel Tapia and former Yankees top prospect Greg Bird, who’ll both get ample opportunity to push for playing time.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. Hasn’t Reached His Final Form
It sounds wild to say, considering the 23-year-old is already one of the game’s brightest young stars, but when it comes to Guerrero’s ceiling, you get the sense the limit does not exist. According to a recent Instagram post from Vlad’s trainer, last year’s runner-up for AL MVP dropped another 22 pounds over the offseason; after slimming down last season, Guerrero responded with a breakout year at the plate, leading the American League in both home runs and runs scored. In other words, don’t be surprised if Vlad goes full Super Saiyan in 2022.
George Springer Is Healthy
Don’t let the fact that Springer spent over half the year on the IL distract you from how good he was when he was actually on the field in 2021. The Jays’ big free agent splash put up 22 HRs, 50 RBIs and scored 59 runs over 78 games—numbers that would be good for nearly 46 HRs, 104 RBIs and 123 runs scored prorated over a full season. For Jays fans impatient to see Springer make good on his $150-million-dollar contract, it’s worth remembering just how much damage the star centre-fielder can do on offence when he’s healthy.
They’re Back Home for All 81 Games
Go ahead and call it making excuses if you want, but it’s worth pointing out that the Jays have been baseball nomads since 2020. Last year, it got even worse, as the team hosted opponents in both their spring training facility in Dunedin and AAA stadium in Buffalo before finally returning to Toronto for good in July, and it’s not especially difficult to find evidence that all that bouncing around had a negative effect on their record: the team went 25-12 in Toronto and 22-22 in their other so-called “home” games. Hopefully, a full season back at the Rogers Centre results in better vibes and better luck for a team that still managed to win 91 games while calling three different cities home.
They’ll Have a Legitimate Homefield Advantage
The Rogers Centre will be at full capacity this weekend for the first time in two years, and while you can expect the hometown crowd will want to make up for lost time, the Blue Jays stand to benefit from a different kind of homefield advantage in 2022. That’s because ongoing Canadian border restrictions means teams will have to leave unvaccinated players at home when they travel to Toronto.
All of which could potentially add up to a few additional wins over the course of the season, considering the division rival Red Sox were one of the least-vaccinated teams in the league last year, and we know their ace Chris Sale still isn’t vaxxed. (From the sounds of it, Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may not be either.) With the AL East always guaranteed to come down to the wire, even one or two extra wins could mean the difference between a Wild Card spot and a division title—and considering the Jays just spent the last two seasons playing through their own COVID-induced disadvantage, the poetic justice of it all feels that much sweeter.
The Front Office Is All-in
And, yes, that absolutely counts for something after an offseason in which MLB owners collectively decided they’d rather light their money on fire than be forced to spend it on players. It’s clear the Jays’ front office sees themselves as a win-now team and is willing to act like one, dealing prospects for potential difference-makers in Berríos and Chapman while doling out $157 million in free agency in 2022—including arbitration, extensions and re-signing their own players, the Jays spent the second-most money in baseball this offseason, according to Sportrac. Assuming the Jays can stay within striking distance in the AL race, it just might convince GM Ross Atkins to push the rest of his chips to the centre of the table and go after bullpen help or another big bat at the trade deadline.