Image via Complex Original
October is one of the best months in professional sports. For football fans, it’s when the regular season gets into full swing. For baseball fans, it means playoff time. And for basketball fans, October is when we get hype about the upcoming NBA season and start tracking all the important storylines. Are the Warriors a sure lock to win the NBA championship? Who is this year’s breakout team? This year's breakout player? Most likely to disappoint?
With NBA basketball on the horizon, we decided to take a closer look at guys with the most pressure to perform. Whether they're coming off an injury, controversy, or looking at a pivotal contract year, these are the players who have the most to prove this season.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
What he has to prove: His leadership
Russell Westbrook is a top-five player in the NBA, and has been for several years now. But this coming season marks the first time in his eight-year career that he’s the undisputed best player on his own team. With the departure of four-time scoring champion and 2014 MVP Kevin Durant, Westbrook will be channeling his inner-Mamba. Expect the 27-year-old point guard to put up Oscar Robertson-like numbers, similar to the ones he posted—30.6 points, 9.1 assists, 7.7 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per game—when Durant missed 55 games with a Jones fracture in his foot in 2014-15.
No one questions Westbrook’s ability to get buckets and stuff the stat sheet. But it remains unclear how much success the Thunder can enjoy with beast mode, bounce-off-the-arena-walls Russ at the helm. Two seasons ago, the Thunder went 22-18 when Westbrook was in the lineup and KD was out. That’s average at best, and average will not cut it in a Western Conference that has the Warriors, Spurs, and Clippers. For Westbrook to shed his reputation as a great player whose contributions don’t directly lead to wins and sometimes even hurt his own team, he (and the Thunder’s supporting cast) must play team basketball. Interestingly, Vegas oddsmakers have placed the over/under line for Oklahoma City at 45.5 wins, almost exactly the total the team would have won if that 22-18 in 2014-2015 pace were extended over 82 games.
Harrison Barnes, Dallas Mavericks
What he has to prove: His value
This past offseason, fanbases throughout the NBA played a game of hot potato with ex-Warriors’ swingman Harrison Barnes. They prayed that at the end of the moratorium period, their team would not be the one to sign the fifth-year man to the $94 million deal he eventually inked with the Mavericks. That’s not to say there’s anything wrong with Barnes. In fact, the former lottery pick is one of the more noteworthy breakout candidates in the league this season. But the problem with him is that he’s now earning a deal indicative of career success that remains entirely theoretical to this point.
Starting for the Warriors alongside Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, Barnes posted the seventh-lowest usage rate in the league among the 81 players who started at least 50 games and played over 30 minutes a night. Now, he’s making twice as much money as Curry did last year, thanks to a ballooning salary cap and the creation of an artificial seller’s market for the players.
Heading into 2016-17, perhaps Dirk Nowitzki’s final campaign before retiring, the Mavs badly need Barnes to transform into the star that the organization is paying him to be. After scoring a career(-not-so)-high 11.7 points per game last year and no-showing during the NBA Finals, he still has a lot of room for improvement.
Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
What he has to prove: His potential
Two years ago, Jabari Parker appeared poised to snatch the Rookie of the Year crown from presumptive (and eventual) winner Andrew Wiggins. But just 25 games in, he tore his ACL and was shut down for the remainder of the season. It was a devastating blow for the Bucks, who were leaning heavily on Parker at the time of the injury (he averaged 12.3 points and 5.5 rebounds in 29.5 minutes when it occurred).
Parker appeared in 76 games last year, and played really well down the stretch, averaging 18.9 points and 6.1 rebounds on 49.8 percent shooting in 28 games after All-Star Weekend. Coming into his third season, the former second-overall pick is poised to improve and find some consistency. But with Joel Embiid, taken third in that same draft, and Dante Exum (selected fifth) both set to return to action after injury problems of their own, the focus could shift from Parker to the other youngsters if he’s unable to take the next step forward. Speaking of which…
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
What he has to prove: His health
This pre-season marks the first time Joel Embiid has played organized basketball since March 1, 2014. So far, he’s shown a nice post-game, solid rim-protecting, and the ability to knock down the three-ball. In the 950-plus days since that game back in 2014, the 7’2’’ (yeah, he actually grew two inches since being drafted) center has missed two full NBA seasons, as well as the tail end of his freshman year at Kansas with stress fractures in his right foot and back, respectively.
Unlike the other players on this list, Embiid’s bar is set remarkably low. As long as he gets through his first healthy season without missing significant time or going under the knife for a third time, most Sixers fans will consider the year a roaring success. That said, if he’s consistently showing up to games in suits and ties, Sixers fans might have to start getting excited about their other young centers.
Derrick Rose, New York Knicks
What he has to prove: His resilience
Coming off his ugly civil rape trial (which was finally settled last week), Derrick Rose can finally focus on basketball. Of course, now he's facing the massive pressure to succeed in New York. Rose has appeared in just over 42 percent of his team’s games since becoming the youngest player in league history (22) to win an MVP award in 2011. Injuries have robbed the Chicago native of five of his prime years, but it’s not too late for him to piece together a very solid career from age 28 on.
Rose’s last two seasons have been his healthiest since tearing his ACL in the opening round of the 2012 Playoffs (appearing in 51 and 66 games, respectively). If there’s any indication Rose can still ball, it’s his averages post-2015-16 All-Star break—17.4 points and 4.6 assists on 46.8 percent from the field, and 37.5 percent from beyond the arc. That should give Knicks fans some hope about the 6’3” point guard, as he enters the final year of the supermax extension he signed with the Bulls five years ago.
In a new city, with a fanbase starved for winning games, Rose will try to lead the Knicks back to the Promised Land. And he has a lot at stake as he approaches unrestricted free agency next summer.
Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
What he has to prove: His mental toughness
Recall the way NBA fans and analysts talked about pre-Miami Heat LeBron; the unending praise they heaped on him, and the excuses they made for his failure to lift the Cavaliers to a championship. Kevin Durant enjoyed the same type of luxury LeBron did with Oklahoma City, but now that he’s with the Warriors—who are coming off the greatest regular season in NBA history—people have some harsher words for him. Again, it’s reminiscent of LBJ and how he got slammed by the media after his Heat lost to the Dallas Mavericks in six games in the 2011 Finals. They questioned his leadership, dominance, and commitment to greatness. That’s what awaits Kevin Durant if he and the Golden State Warriors struggle this season. The bar is only set at 73 regular season wins. Good luck exceeding those expectations, KD!
Evan Turner, Portland Trail Blazers
What he has to prove: His progression
In his post-Sixers career, former second-overall pick Evan Turner has turned into a serviceable NBA player. He played a significant role coming off the bench for the Boston Celtics, and finished fifth in Sixth Man of the Year voting last year. But like I said, he’s “serviceable.” That’s why so many people were shocked when the Portland Trail Blazers threw $70 million at him over four years on the first day of free agency.
In Portland, the do-it-all swingman is expected to handle much of the scoring load, alongside C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard. Between those three players and recently re-signed combo guard Allen Crabbe, the Blazers have roughly $376 committed in guaranteed salary money. General Manager Neil Olshey is betting big on both Turner and Crabbe to improve dramatically over the next several seasons. But the difference between Turner and Crabbe is that the latter has spent his first three seasons in Portland, and has ingratiated himself with the fanbase. By contrast, Turner still carries with him the draft bust label, and, depending on how he plays this season, may gain the reputation for being wildly overpaid.
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
What he has to prove: His ability to win
Two years ago, Anthony Davis was deemed the next great superstar, and the Pelicans were seen as a team on the rise. In 2014-15, New Orleans won 45 games and The Brow was named All-NBA First Team. Last year, though, the Pelicans stumbled to a 30-52 record, despite impressive statistical contributions from Davis (24.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game).
With AD entering his fifth season, the pressure will be on for him to show the league that he’s capable of lifting New Orleans out of the funk it’s been in for the better part of the last decade. Like DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento, there’s only so much more the 23-year-old can do in terms of individual output. But also like Cousins, he has begun to earn a reputation as a very good player whose contributions don’t necessarily make his teammates better or lead to wins.
Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
What he has to prove: His star-power
Gordon Hayward is one of the most underrated wings in the NBA. Playing in a small market for a team that’s posted a winning record just once during his six pro seasons, the 6’8’’ swingman has largely flown under the radar. But with the Jazz expected to enjoy their best season since the Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer days almost a decade ago, Hayward will have to step up as the leader of this young Utah team. Because the media isn’t as keyed in on the Jazz as they would be if they played on one of the coasts, Hayward probably has less to lose than many of the other players on this list. That being said, he has a lot to gain in terms of his own reputation if he can lead the Jazz back to the playoffs.
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
What he has to prove: His role in the "Big Three"
Two years ago, Kevin Love was considered one of the best players in the league. So much has changed in the NBA since then, and in that time, Love has gotten lost in the fold. While he’s enjoyed more team success over the past two seasons than he did in the entirety of his career before that, he’s become a glorified role player on a team whose offense is run through LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. If James and Irving are the James and Wade of this "Big Three," Love is Mike Miller.
And look, Love has put up solid enough numbers—16.0 points and 9.9 rebounds per game last year, and now he has a ring. But gone are the days of Kevin Love, the marketable offensive superstar. He may still have that firepower in him somewhere, but because he’s 28 years old, you can’t help but wonder if we’ll ever see Love return to the dominant force he was for the better part of his career before getting traded to the Cavs in 2014.
Dwight Howard, Atlanta Hawks
What he has to prove: His legacy
Dwight Howard is one of the most enigmatic players in recent memory. Five years ago, he was undoubtedly the best center in the league, someone who led a ragtag Orlando Magic team to the NBA Finals at the age of 23 in 2009. Now, at 30, Howard is coming off the least productive statistical season of his career—13.7 points and 11.8 rebounds per game—and is playing for his fourth team in six years.
With the Atlanta Hawks, Howard will benefit from the presence of Paul Millsap, arguably the best power forward he’s played alongside since Rashard Lewis in Orlando. But it’s difficult to imagine how Howard will lift his hometown team to Finals contention in a conference that features the Cleveland Cavaliers. For Howard, who continues to show flashes of the tremendous defensive upside he possesses, greater consistency on that end of the floor would go a long way with his new squad.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
What he has to prove: His durability
Bradley Beal is without question an incredibly talented young guard. But injuries have plagued the 23-year-old’s career to this point, limiting him to an average of just under 62 games per year in his first four seasons. Despite missing significant time, Beal just signed a five-year, $127 million deal this summer, and the Washington Wizards are praying he can stay healthy and form a dynamic duo with John Wall. But the 6’5” combo guard is coming off a career low in minutes played last year (1,708), and some have speculated that he could spend the rest of his career on a minutes restriction due to nagging right leg injuries.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
What he has to prove: His contract
In 2014, Hassan Whiteside was playing professionally for the Jiangsu Monkey Kings, a team in the Chinese Basketball Association. Before that, he was with Al Mouttahed Tripoli, a club based in Lebanon. Today, the 7-footer is the owner of a four-year, $98 million contract with the Miami Heat. Whiteside’s comeback story has been well-documented, and last year the 27-year-old was a monster, posting 14.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, and a league-best 3.7 blocks per game in under 30 minutes.
But with Dwyane Wade now in Chicago, and Chris Bosh appearing to be forced into early retirement with blood clot issues, a lot will fall on Whiteside’s broad shoulders. His drive and commitment to basketball were significant factors that kept him out of the league for more than two years after he flamed out early in his career with the Sacramento Kings. Now that Whiteside has earned a big payday, will he continue to move in the right direction, or regress? If it’s the latter, things could get ugly for Whiteside, thanks to a fanbase that has been spoiled by success in recent years, and now faces the sobering reality of life after D-Wade.