Just over a week on from one of the most bizarre draws in World Cup history, the dust has settled and managers from across the world are starting to sit down and draw up their plans.
The tournament’s expanded format, which will see 48 teams battle it out in the US, Canada, and Mexico, has thrown up some real David-and-Goliath matchups. We may well see some huge blowout victories, but the stage is also set for someone to step forward and produce the moment that will come to define their nation’s soccer history. Here are our picks for 10 Potential Group Stage Upsets at the 2026 World Cup.
Canada over Italy
Date: Friday, June 12
Location: Toronto
With this being the first World Cup match ever held in Canada, you can be certain that BMO Field will bring the noise. Far less certain is the identity of the team Les Rouges will be up against. On paper, Italy is the most likely nation to progress through the qualifying playoffs, but Gennaro Gattuso’s team looks unrecognizable from the one which won the European Championship in 2021. This is a huge chance for the biggest result in Canadian soccer history.
Morocco over Brazil
Date: Saturday, June 13
Location: New York/New Jersey
Morocco was the surprise story of the last World Cup, beating Belgium, Spain, and Portugal on the way to a stunning fourth-place finish in Qatar. Since then, the Atlas Lions have added Real Madrid’s Brahim Díaz to the likes of Achraf Hakimi and Sofyan Amrabat. Brazil, meanwhile, scraped through the qualifying stage in fifth place with its lowest-ever points total in this format. Manager Carlo Ancelotti, who was appointed in May, has his work cut out.
Japan over The Netherlands
Date: Sunday, June 14
Location: Dallas
Despite its status as perennial underachievers, it has taken some soccer giants to stop the Netherlands in recent years – eventual champion Argentina in the quarterfinals at the 2022 World Cup, and England in the semifinals at Euro 2024. The Oranje also went unbeaten in qualifying. That said, Japan beat both Germany and Spain in 2022, and with Kaoru Mitoma and Takefusa Kubo on the wings, the Samurai Blue has enough to worry any defense.
Saudi Arabia over Uruguay
Date: Monday, June 15
Location: Miami
Saudi Arabia shocked the world in 2022 when it came from behind to defeat eventual champion Argentina in their first game of the tournament. Uruguay’s team is littered with talent and will rightly be the favorite to win this game, but this is the same team that crashed out of the group stage in Qatar, minus the iconic Luis Suárez. Salem Al-Dawsari and Co. may smell another chance to fell a South American giant.
Egypt over Belgium
Date: Monday, June 15
Location: Seattle
For years, Egypt has been the Mohamed Salah show. Despite being arguably the greatest African player of all time, the Liverpool star has struggled at times to carry the expectations of an entire nation on his shoulders. Now, in Omar Marmoush, Salah finally has another elite attacker to help him out. With Belgium coming to the tail end of its golden generation, this is a real chance for Egypt to claim its first ever World Cup victory.
Algeria over Argentina
Date: Tuesday, June 16
Location: Kansas City
Thirty-three places separate Argentina and Algeria in the FIFA World Rankings. La Albiceleste is world champion, is captained by one of the greatest players of all time, and finished top of its group in qualifying. And yet, you just can’t shake the feeling that Algeria could repeat what Saudi Arabia managed in 2022. For all of Argentina’s attacking talent, it is comparatively weak in defense, leaving them vulnerable to attacks from forwards Riyad Mahrez, Rayan Aït-Nouri and Amine Gouiri.
Curaçao over Côte d’Ivoire
Date: Thursday, June 25
Location: Philadelphia
This one’s for the real purists. Côte d’Ivoire may not be the force it was in the days of Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré, but it is the current champion of Africa and, remarkably, did not concede a single goal in qualifying. Nonetheless, sometimes the World Cup gods throw us a storyline that’s too big to fail: Curaçao, a tiny island of around 150,000 people, is the smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup. Watch this space.
Ecuador over Germany
Date: Thursday, June 25
Location: New York/New Jersey
For all its elite talent, Germany is on a pretty wretched run at the World Cup. After winning the tournament for the fourth time in 2014, it failed to get past the group stage in both Russia and Qatar, losing to Mexico, South Korea, and Japan. Ecuador, on the other hand, appears to be entering a golden generation. Powered by young stars like Moisés Caicedo, Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié, they finished above Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay in qualifying.
Norway over France
Date: Friday, June 26
Location: Boston
If you only watch one match on this list, make it this one. Both nations are far from one-man teams but, in Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland, this is a chance to watch two of the best strikers in the world face off. France is the obvious favorite, but Norway went eight-for-eight in qualifying, and has Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa and Alexander Sørloth to back up its big Manchester City forward.
Ghana over Croatia
Date: Saturday, June 27
Location: Philadelphia
With England the favorite to take the top spot in Group L, this final-game clash could end up as a winner-takes-all battle for second place. It will certainly be a fascinating clash of styles – Croatia’s patient possession-based play contrasts intriguingly with Ghana’s emphasis on dribbling ability and counterattacks. The Black Stars have struggled recently and Croatia has a ton of experience, but don’t write off Mohammed Kudus and Antoine Semenyo.