Aug 24, 2018; Tampa, FL, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) warms up on the field prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL offseason is almost here, and there will be a flurry of deals like we've never seen before. More than half the league could change their quarterbacks after seeing their incumbent is either not good enough for their situation, or there's financial reason to move on. The projected salary cap is also much lower than anticipated, so get ready for a flurry of transactions featuring household names.
We'll see the rumors and photoshops swirling all spring long if veteran quarterbacks keep asking out of their current situation. But not all trade requests will be met, and we'll breakdown the likelihood of each rumor coming true. We could see the first NBA-like circus with the position if teams are willing to eat some dead cap and deal picks for veterans. Here are predictions where the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson, and more will be playing next season.
Aaron Rodgers
Things in Green Bay became tense right after the Packers' loss to the Buccaneers thanks to a vaguely-worded answer about his future with the franchise in Aaron Rodgers' press time. He stated he wasn't sure what the future held, and some media ran with the quote as a threat to retire or demand a trade. But that's simply not going to happen, as Rodgers further clarified that he meant that no one's job is safe and the team has several free agents they could lose.
Rodgers may win the MVP award this year, and he deserves more help around him than what he had last year. The Packers screwed up their early draft picks in terms of addressing needs for 2020, and will likely not play Jordan Love until after Rodgers retires if No. 12 keeps playing so well. At the very least we should see a new deal for Rodgers as he ups his guaranteed money after such a monstrous season.
Green Bay won't trade him due to his immense value, the $31.5 million in dead money they'd eat in 2021 in a deal, and instant loss of contender status. Instead we'll see the team restructure deals to open cap room for some improvement.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
Dak Prescott
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has opened the checkbook for many players in his time as owner of the team, but has been hesitant to extend quarterback Dak Prescott. Dak was having a huge season before getting hurt, and is a franchise tag candidate. At just 27 years old, Dak's hitting his prime and is one of the better passers in the league.
Barring a trade with Dak and their top-10 pick for Deshaun Watson, the team can't do better than the five-year veteran. Retaining him will be expensive but unless they're looking to rebuild around a first-round quarterback, this is their only option. It's their best option since Dak is a proven commodity and the roster needs purged of older players anyways.
Suitors would be aplenty for Prescott, a good sign of his talent. He's a cerebral passer who showed excellent chemistry with his receivers and increased playmaking in 2020 before getting injured. Expect him to get his $40 million a year deal.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
Matthew Stafford
Here's where the fun begins. Matthew Stafford has had enough of the Detroit Lions dysfunction and asked for a trade before the new staff was even set into place. Insiders say he wants to go somewhere warm if possible but certainly a contender, so that likely narrows the list down to both L.A. teams, Indianapolis, and Washington. Chicago makes sense but it's hard to imagine the Lions would move him within the division.
Stafford's a good talent who will benefit from a great running game and reliable defense. He had quality receivers in Detroit but often faced inconsistency along the offensive line and from the running back position. He's not a transcendent-type, but the right coach will make him more efficient than what we'd seen from him when the Lions struggled to produce as an offensive unit.
Sources say the Lions want a first-round pick for the near-33-year-old, and it's a seller's market this year. He's just good enough to make a quality team that's lacking at the position into a real contender for a few seasons, justifying at least a second-round pick and change, if not a first outright. The 49ers make the most sense as they have a strong roster, excellent coaching staff, and the ability to dump their current quarterback to open cap room for Stafford.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo
The domino of Stafford to the Bay Area is that Jimmy G goes home to New England to reunite with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels. The Cam Newton experiment didn't work as well as it could've, so bringing in the familiar face of Garoppolo would reinvigorate this passing attack. The Patriots have the fourth-most cap space to get this done.
Garoppolo is an average, scheme-dependent passer who is deadly when in a rhythm. But conditions have to be right for the quick-releasing thrower to thrive. New England must overhaul their playmaking corps for him to have a chance at recapturing the success he found in previous seasons.
A new deal for Jimmy G would be on the low-end of starters and allow the team to stay competitive without investing into a rookie right away. Essentially a one-year deal with incentive-laden money in future years would keep the team flexible and also give Garoppolo comfort if he plays well.
The Bears, Colts, Saints, and Texans (if Deshaun Watson is moved) would also make sense. Cap limitations for the Bears and Saints may impose on that possibility, but there's certainly a reason to think there's an upside for Garoppolo in those situations.
Prediction: New England Patriots
Ryan Fitzpatrick
It wouldn't be shocking to see Fitz return to Miami on a sweetheart contract. But both parties might benefit more from moving on, with Fitz fighting for a starting job elsewhere and Tua Tagovailoa taking over without the pressure of the veteran behind him. Fitz should benefit nicely from being in a class with Newton, Trubisky, Winston and Jacoby Brissett as fringe-starter types on the open market.
Like the Colts, the Bears are more likely to be stuck with their incumbent quarterback than get a new established one this offseason. They'll have to open cap space for a high-priced veteran and outbid others that offer a more attractive situation than they have with limited offensive playmakers and mediocre head coach. Do they bring Trubisky back to battle with Nick Foles?
They shouldn't. Signing Fitzpatrick and drafting Mac Jones from Alabama offers more upside than that tandem. This team needs playmaking at the position and Foles has shown he's not the answer.
The Broncos and Washington also make sense as teams who can offer a bridge job to Fitz. It's amazing that the dead-armed 38-year-old is still good enough to get jobs but he's wily and ballsy enough to overcome his physical limitations for six-to-eight games a year.
Prediction: Chicago Bears
Deshaun Watson
The big fish in the sea this offseason is Deshaun Watson. Make no mistake about it, Watson is revered as a top-four quarterback in the league by many evaluators for good reason. The difference between the elite four (Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Watson) and the field is notable.
Of course not every team would trade for Watson because of the costs associated with a deal, but every team except the aforementioned would likely take Watson for their quarterback if all else were equal. That's not the case of course, but there's been fan bases claiming they'd rather have Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins or Justin Herbert over Watson as they cite stats. Watson blows each of them out of the water as a playmaker and talent right now.
Watson is unlikely to be dealt, according to sources. His no-trade clause will limit the pool of options significantly, and I've heard that Miami and Carolina would be preferred, and not the rumored Jets. Then it comes down to whether those teams will offer the package it'll take to land the Texans star.
Miami would likely need to trade Tua, the No. 3 pick and the No. 18 pick in this class to land him, if not some more. Carolina has major motivation to land the former Clemson star as well, and is on his approved list of teams he'd accept a trade to, per sources. They have a longer path to put a package together because they don't have Tua but Watson could try to leverage his way there.
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Jameis Winston
The Denver Broncos didn't see Drew Lock blossom into a stud as they had hoped in 2020, and now they must add competition to the quarterback room before the staff is cleaned out with another losing season. This offense has considerable talent to build around with the right quarterback but limited options.
At least the Broncos have the ninth pick to entice the Lions with for Stafford if they choose, but the Lions quarterback will need to sign off on that over better situations like the 49ers or Colts. Or they can try to trade up for one of the top four quarterbacks in the class. They have more options than the Bears, Patriots and Washington in terms of finding a competitor at the position.
Jameis probably planned on earning the starting job in New Orleans for 2021 after signing there for a cheap one-year deal but it doesn't appear he convinced Sean Payton he's their guy since Taysom Hill continued to start even while struggling. Winston has more options this offseason, with Chicago, Denver, and likely Washington as teams picking from a group with mostly limited upside. He has the upside to swing games both positively and negatively, but that's better than the milquetoast options.
Giving Winston Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Cortland Sutton, Noah Fant and Melvin Gordon sounds exciting and potentially devastating if the interception numbers drop. And the best part is he'd be much more affordable than a veteran. The 27-year-old should get another chance now instead of later and this market is ripe for that opportunity.