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The Dallas Cowboys finally agreed to a long-term contract with quarterback Dak Prescott Monday evening. The four-year, $164 million deal included $66 million at signing and a record $126 million guaranteed. We’re going to break down the winners and losers from the deal.
The deal can be worth up to $164 million, per source.
The deal includes $66 million to sign and $75 million in year one, the most in NFL history. https://t.co/bt7uBY2v7w
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 8, 2021
Prescott’s situation was one being closely monitored by rival teams for multiple reasons. Some were hoping the Cowboys would botch the situation and make Prescott available for trade. Others have fourth-year quarterbacks who were watching his contract terms to base their own extensions off.
We have three winners and three losers from across the league after this groundbreaking deal is now settled.
Winner: Dak and His Playmakers
The obvious big winner is Dak Prescott. He cashed in beyond his talent level, further proving it’s more important to sign your deal at the right time over being the best overall player. While Dak is a top-10 passer in his prime, he’s now in possession of the second-biggest overall contract in NFL history behind Patrick Mahomes. He’ll get almost double the amount of money in the first three years of his deal than Mahomes as well.
Props to Dak and his team for maximizing his value and betting on himself. He was excellent in 2020 before fracturing and dislocating his right ankle and missing 11 games. He was on pace to rival 6,000 passing yards and setting a career-high in touchdowns with ease.
That production should continue thanks to his role in a loaded and familiar offense. Kellen Moore is back in charge of the unit, and the Cowboys need only minor adjustments to their offensive line. With Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Ezekiel Elliott, this should be a top-five unit for the foreseeable future.
Dak will hit the market again when he’s just 31, setting him up for at least one more mega contract in his career. Gallup is eligible for free agency after 2022, and both Lamb and Cooper will benefit from having Dak for their primes as well before their free agency in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Loser: Cowboys Salary Cap Management
The Cowboys could’ve had this deal done last year at a much lower per-year number. Waiting to see Prescott show improvement in a loaded offense cost them roughly $30 million over the life of the deal. Jerry Jones’ track record with waiting to extend the right playmakers, a trend that goes back to Emmett Smith, bit him again.
The Cowboys’ cap situation isn’t in dire straits now but adjustments to big contracts are needed since they’re over the cap by about $1.2 million. They’ll easily clear that threshold, but how much they mortgage the future by restructuring veterans is important to watch. They could easily fall into the trap New Orleans did if they over-leverage older players.
Decisions on Tyron Smith, Elliott, La’el Collins and Jaylon Smith must be made over the next 12 months. I’d argue none of them are worth the money they’re owed due to injuries, decline, or scheme, but moving on will cost millions in dead cap and new holes are created. Dak needed to get paid but that extra money each year makes the margin for error a little tighter.
Winner: 2018 QB Class
Extensions are looming for the 2018 quarterback class. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield must be foaming at the mouth for their chance to cash-in off their early successes either this off-season or next. Prescott showed waiting to make more and playing well can make a significant amount more than taking the early deal.
Of course there’s the opposite approach that’s helped the player. Both Jared Goff and Carson Wentz benefited from taking their mammoth deals as soon as they could before their teams found out they’re mediocre or worse. Taking the guaranteed deal that likely averages between $35 million and $40 million a year should be awfully tempting considering the risks of regression for each player.
The gap between Mahomes at $45 million per year, Watson at $39 million, and Russell Wilson at $35 million was considerable. We’re likely to see the next batch of young studs to continue filling in that price point.
Loser: Rest of NFC East
The rest of the NFC East continues to search for their own long-term answers at quarterback while the Cowboys just locked their bonafide star for the foreseeable future. Neither the Giants nor Eagles can be convinced either Daniel Jones or Jalen Hurts will be a starter beyond 2021, and the Washington Field Team is currently out of any starting-caliber talent on their roster. The Cowboys are easily the favorite to win the division as long as he’s healthy.
The Eagles have the best path to finding a star passer since they have the sixth overall pick in this class but their cap situation makes building a roster for a rookie difficult. Their recent proclamation they believe in Hurts as their starter is nice but means little if they have the chance to move up in the draft for Zach Wilson or Justin Fields and think one is better. Hurts showed nothing to cement his status for this season or beyond as a star.
The Giants will give Jones another year, hopefully with better blocking and more weapons. But his time is running thin and his turnovers must be cut down. Much like Sam Darnold for the Jets, the flashes of great moments need to start outweighing the costly misses and sloppy play. Joe Judge’s regime can’t wait forever for Jones to figure out issues that plagued him in college as well.
And Washington has the toughest task since they’re picking 19th in this class. Maybe Mac Jones falls to them or they can strike rich by giving Jameis Winston a chance, but there’s a lot of luck at play. Ron Rivera must get crafty to find his passer of the future, or else they’ll play second-fiddle to Dak’s Cowboys indefinitely.
Winner: Players Leverage on Franchise Tag
We’ve now seen Dak and Kirk Cousins use the franchise tag as an advantage for themselves. There was no chance either team could risk using the costly provision on their passer a third time, and the players knew their quality play made them highly valuable. It’s likely we’ll see this tactic used again in coming years.
The tag is perfect for a team not quite sure if they have the next Wentz on their team and are afraid of extending too early. But we’ve covered how costly it can be if the plan is to eventually pay them anyway. We could see this same pattern play out with Mayfield with Cleveland if the team determines he’s more like Cousins and not a transcendent talent.
However the player will still cash out somewhere as long as they’re not a bust like Mitchell Trubisky was. Cousins will have earned almost $150 million between his two deals with Minnesota, and that’s after the $44 million he had between two franchise tags in Washington. It won’t be long before another quarterback calls the team’s bluff like these two quarterbacks did.
Loser: Remaining QB Carousel
There was a slight possibility we’d see an insane amount of quarterback turnover this off-season. Watson could still be dealt but it’s more unlikely than likely right now, and now Dak will be in Dallas through his prime. The next-best name possibly on the market is Cousins, followed by journeymen and fliers.
Seeing Cousins land in San Francisco and then Jimmy Garoppolo to either Chicago or New England might be the biggest possible set of transactions at the position. That’d be a bold move for both Minnesota and the 49ers. It’s much more likely teams like Chicago, New England, Denver, and Washington all fight for the slew of free agents who barely move the needle.
Hopefully this turns into an NBA-style off-season where Watson and Cousins are moved too because it’d be more fun, but chances are even lower we’ll see that type of action.