SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - NOVEMBER 06: Kayvon Thibodeaux #5 of the Oregon Ducks looks on during the first quarter against the Washington Huskies at Husky Stadium on November 06, 2021 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
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Nearly all of the league’s 32 teams are now in their offseason faze as the conference championship round of the NFL playoffs are set. The journey for 28 teams to become a final four contender during the 2022 season varies, but the priority to improve is the same. The best opportunity for most teams to take a step forward now and long-term is through the NFL Draft.
Welcome to Complex Sports’ first mock draft of the offseason. Free agency, which commences in March, will absolutely change our projections as team needs fluctuate. But for now, it’s clear where teams are lacking.
The draft order for the first 28 picks has already been decided. The remaining four teams are in order of best odds to win the Super Bowl, per DraftKings. We’ll hold off on trades until closer to the draft and we have more clarity on what direction teams may go.
Let’s jump in and see where the top college football players could land in the 2022 NFL Draft.
2.Jaguars - Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Size: 6’7”, 350 LBS
The Jags still need to suss out their head coaching search, but when their new regime settles in, they’ll find the offensive line is simply not up to par. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, never had much of a chance in his rookie season thanks to the lackluster set of blockers and receiving threats around him. The franchise must consider passing on the conventional top-2 edge rushers in order to solidify their blindside blocker.
Neal is the best pass blocker thanks to his massive frame and surprising foot speed. He also showed devastating strength in open space as a run blocker. He’d be a considerable upgrade over Cam Robinson at left tackle and give Lawrence peace of mind for the next decade.
3.Lions - Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan
2021 Stats: 36 SOLO, 14 SACK, 2 FF
This is a unique draft that boasts a lot of trench talent at the top and not as much offensive playmaking. Detroit is okay with that thanks to their relatively barren roster that could use help all over. Getting their choice between the top-2 edge rushers puts them in a difficult spot, though.
While Kayvon Thibodeaux is naturally the more gifted player and, traditionally, NFL teams favor the physical upside, Aidan Hutchinson is the better fit for Detroit. The Lions will love how Hutchinson can play at end and tackle right away and be more of a well-rounded contributor. His personality will endear him to a staff filled with former players.
4.Texans - Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon
2021 Stats: 35 SOLO, 7 SACK, 2 FF
The most talented player in the draft falling to No. 3 is a dream for Houston. The Texans have only a few long-term viable starters on the roster after a disastrous 2021 campaign. Walking away with Thibodeaux will help jumpstart their defensive overhaul.
Thibodeaux profiles as a perennial Pro Bowl edge talent with his great length, speed, and bend around the edge. He took a solid leap in development this past season as his technical refinement grew. No one would be surprised if Thibodeaux ends up as the most impactful player from this class.
5.Jets - David Ojabo, Edge, Michigan
2021 Stats: 24 SOLO, 11 SACK, 5 FF
Sitting with the fourth overall pick is never a bad thing, but it’s an awkward spot in this class to be in. The Jets need an offensive playmaker, a pass rusher, and secondary help. But they’ll likely be selecting from a second-tier edge defender or slightly reaching for safety Kyle Hamilton two summers after trading Jamal Adams.
Pairing Ojabo with edge rusher Carl Lawson, who is set to return from injury next year, can elevate the Jets’ defense to a dramatically higher level. Ojabo has a physical skill set that could make him an even better pro than his former teammate, Hutchinson. I’d expect Jets head coach Robert Saleh to fully unlock his talent and unleash a feared edge presence.
6.Giants - Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Size: 6’4”, 320 LBS
This offensive line class is loaded, which is music to the ears of whoever will be new general manager of the Giants. It’s painfully obvious New York needs upgrades along the line. No one would blame them for selecting two first-round linemen.
The best on the board after Neal went first is Ekwonu. His ability to walk in as an impact run defender is reminiscent of Tristan Wirfs. With any luck, Ekwonu would develop as a pass blocker like Wirfs, and quickly become a superstar blocker for the next decade.
7.Panthers - Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
2021 Stats: 4,319 YDS, 42 TD, 7 INT
The Panthers desperately need a quarterback upgrade, but have limited assets to get a deal done. They’ll be in the Deshaun Watson mix, but they may only have the assets to chase after Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr after trading 2022’s Day 2 picks earlier this year. Any of the above would be an upgrade, but it’s also not hard to see the Panthers getting outbid.
Instead, they may need to go with a rookie. Pickett lacks ideal hand size and is old for a rookie (he’ll be 24 by opening weekend), but he’s a gamer and the NFC South is the best possible division for him to succeed. He’s a plug-and-play option in a class lacking clear starters.
8.Giants (via Bears) - George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue
2021 Stats: 25 SOLO, 4.5 SACK, 2 FF
Going quarterback makes sense for the Giants with either of their picks since Daniel Jones has disappointed, but the Giants should opt for a displaced veteran instead. Continuing to bolster the trenches is ideal for a roster routinely losing the battles up front. Here, getting a star pass rusher is an easy decision.
Karlaftis is a big-bodied, NFL-ready lineman who can play as a strong-side end in a 4-3 or end in a 3-4. New York selected Azeez Ojulari last year, but still lacks other threats. Karlaftis would walk in as an impactful starter.
9.Falcons - Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
2021 Stats: 19 SOLO, 3 INT
We rarely see safeties drafted this highly since so few are difference-makers in coverage. The Notre Dame product is the next whole package at the position, though. The 6’4”, 220-pounder is unusually experienced and skilled as a prospect, making him a can’t-miss safety in the 2022 class.
Atlanta could use talent all along the defense and could also consider adding a receiver if they trade Calvin Ridley just one-year after moving Julio Jones. Hamilton’s value here is simply too good to pass up for Atlanta. Joining Hamilton with cornerback AJ Terrell would make the Falcons’ defense much more potent in Matt Ryan’s waning years.
10.Broncos - Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
2021 Stats: 36 SOLO, 6 SACK, 2 FF
With needs at quarterback and offensive tackle, the Broncos could go several different directions. I think this pick is more likely dealt for a veteran passer than used, but for now we’ll pencil in the best available talent to the Broncos. Without a doubt, it’s Georgia’s star linebacker.
Dean’s ability to man the middle of the unit will only reinforce Denver’s young stable of defensive thoroughbreds. He’s a lightning quick processor who can shed blocks and finish tackles through contact. His pass-rush ability is also a wildcard, and could allow him a Micah Parsons-type impact as a rookie.
11.Jets (via Seahawks) - Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
2021 Stats: 70 REC, 1,058 YDS, 12 TD
First landing a franchise pass rusher and then a WR1 is ideal for the Jets. This class is unique and offers many different skill sets. Giving Zach Wilson another movable, versatile receiver who wins with speed and route-running would help his game advance as a sophomore more than a big body who wins on contested passes.
Wilson is that dude. Wilson’s the most complete threat of the class, often outshining his impressive teammates at Ohio State. Putting Wilson next to Elijah Moore and Corey Davis would provide significantly more explosiveness than anything the Jets had last year.
12.Washington Football Team - Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
2021 Stats: 3,349 YDS, 20 TD, 5 INT
The arm’s race for veteran quarterbacks will likely leave some teams disappointed. Washington could be that team despite boasting an intriguing set of young skill players. If free agency doesn’t bring more than a veteran flier such as Jameis Winston, then going quarterback in the first-round is almost a must.
The best on the board for Washington is Corral. The dual-threat passer is an accurate and experienced playmaker who can win the job from Taylor Heinicke, who is clearly better suited to be a backup, whereas Corral has the upside to be an above-average presence if his improvement in decision-making throughout 2021 sticks.
13.Vikings - Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
2021 Stats: 26 SOLO, 3 INT, 5 PD
Things will look different in Minnesota very soon after the team dismissed Mike Zimmer and the rest of the Vikings’ regime. Even if the new staff keeps the veteran roster intact and tries to win, the Vikings need an injection of youthful talent on defense. Actually, it needs a facelift.
This deep cornerback class offers several top options to choose from. Andrew Booth brings consistency, length, and physicality. The new staff in Minnesota may prefer a known quantity more than the variance Derek Stingley has shown.
14.Browns - Drake London, WR, USC
2021 Stats: 88 REC, 1,084 YDS, 7 TD
Cleveland must answer their own quarterback controversy prior to this pick. Make no mistake, they’ll try to upgrade over Baker Mayfield if they can. They won’t run him out of town for a rookie or lesser talent, though.
Mayfield is still in town if the Browns have this pick. Adding a receiver is a must as the unit is about to be overhauled after two inconsistent seasons from the group. London is surprisingly good at running routes in addition to winning what seemed like every jump ball thrown to him in 2021.
15.Ravens - Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Size: 6’5”, 310 LBS
For Baltimore to be their best, they must be elite in the trenches. Injuries devastated the entire Ravens roster in 2021, and the offensive line was noticeably worse without Ronnie Stanley in particular. You can bet the Ravens will gladly grab the best value on the board and likely fill a huge need while doing so.
Cross is exactly that. The pass blocking technician profiles as an elite right tackle thanks to excellent reach and strength. The Ravens can regain their fantastic running game while helping Lamar Jackson play from the pocket by landing Cross.
16.Eagles (via Dolphins) - Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
2021 Stats: 28 SOLO, 3 INT, 4 PD
The best cornerback on the field over the last two years wasn’t Derek Stingley Jr. or Andrew Booth, but rather “Sauce” Gardner. He was as dominant for Cincinnati, never allowing a touchdown in his career. The 6’3”, 200-pounder has elite awareness and closing ability.
The Eagles would love to land Gardner and pair him with stud veteran Darius Slay to form a dangerous tandem. Opposing quarterbacks would need to play with a heightened awareness or else risk a deadly turnover. This would be the first step in bolstering the defense.
17.Eagles (via Colts) - Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
2021 Stats: 60 SOLO, 8 SACK, 4 INT
The second step is to add an impactful second-level presence like Lloyd. The combination of Alex Singleton and TJ Edwards racked up 267 tackles between them, but also only two interceptions and one forced fumble. That’s not impactful.
Lloyd was all over the field for Utah, flying from sideline to sideline and forcing offenses to account for his presence. He tallied eight sacks and four interceptions in 2021. He could be the next great linebacker for the next decade.
18.Chargers - Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
2021 Stats: 17 SOLO, 2 SACK
If Davis, a mountain of a man at 6’6” and 340 pounds, is still on the board, the Chargers will sprint to the podium to take him. Davis will be an immediate upgrade in the middle of any defense he lands in, much like Vita Vea was for the Buccaneers. Los Angeles allowed the fourth-highest yards per-carry (tied with two other teams) on the ground this past season.
Pitting Davis next to Joey Bosa, Jerry Tillery, and Uchenna Nwosu would unlock the potential in the defense. His ability to eat blocks will make everyone around him that much better. This is arguably the cleanest fit between player and team possible beyond the top-three picks.
19.Saints - Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
2021 Stats: 2,857 YDS, 27 TD, 12 INT
Once again, the Saints enter the offseason with a seemingly insurmountable cap situation. Unfortunately, Jameis Winston’s torn ACL and Taysom Hill’s limitations at quarterback have left them without many resources for finding their star of the future. Their best bet is to draft a quarterback.
Sean Payton hasn’t drafted many QBs before so it’ll be fascinating to see if he prefers an explosive physical skill set over someone more refined but limited. The most gifted thrower and playmaker in the class is Willis. The dual-threat has the potential to ignite the Saints right back into a playoff contender if he can quickly acclimate to the NFL’s speed.
20.Eagles - Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
2021 Stats: 66 REC, 1,104 YDS, 11 TD
The only reason the Eagles continue to play Jalen Reagor is because they lack options. Adding a veteran to the mix this offseason is a must, but so is continuing to take advantage of this draft class. Nabbing Burks would be a home run.
He’s a big body who creates after the catch like a smaller athlete. His catch radius and speed would be perfect for creating a solid passing window for Jalen Hurts. Burks, DeVonta Smith, and a free agent would absolutely legitimize the Eagles’ offensive unit.
21.Steelers - Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Size: 6’3”, 290 pounds
We don’t often see a first-round center, so the player must be quite special to make it into the first 32 picks as an interior offensive lineman. Linderbaum is a fantastic center and could go even higher than the 20th pick come April. Here, the Steelers get lucky to land their next stalwart in the middle of their line.
Of course, Pittsburgh needs a quarterback to take snaps from the athletic Linderbaum. They appear better suited for a veteran than a rookie, though. Linderbaum would immediately help resuscitate a line desperately needing his run blocking skill.
22.Patriots - Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
2021 Stats: 91 REC, 1,182 YDS, 12 TD
The most obvious need on the Patriots aligns well with this draft class. Mac Jones needs more speed and playmaking from his receivers in order to reach his ceiling. Instead of taking a gamble on Jameson Williams, who is coming off a torn ACL in the national championship game, the Patriots get their next Julian Edelman in Dotson.
He dominated the Big Ten over the last two years, totaling over 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. Dotson’s the perfect modern-day receiving prospect, combining excellent quickness and top speed. He could immediately challenge for an offensive rookie of the year award in this offense.
23.Raiders - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
2021 Stats: 65 REC, 936 YDS, 13 TD
Regardless of who the Raiders hire as their next head coach, this team needs some playmakers. If Derek Carr is going to stick around long-term, he needs assurances they’ll surround him with guys who can push the franchise deeper into the playoffs. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow would benefit tremendously from Olave.
He was virtually unguardable at Ohio State thanks to his premier speed, slick route-running, and reliable hands. He was a three-year star who averaged 10 touchdowns a season as a starter. He’d be a major steal if he can produce similarly as a deep threat for the Raiders.
24.Cardinals - Cameron Thomas, Edge, San Diego State
2021 Stats: 30 SOLO, 11.5 SACK, 1 FF
There’s been speculation the Cardinals should fire Kliff Kingsbury after their collapse in the second half of the season, but that move wouldn’t fix the clear roster issues that have plagued the franchise for years. The Cardinals are top-heavy and were exposed when their stars went down. Reinforcing the trenches is a must this offseason.
With Chandler Jones hitting free agency, the Cardinals must add an edge talent. Thomas is maybe the biggest sleeper in the class. The 6’5”, 270-pounder is a freakish athlete who should develop into a solid pro as he learns how to utilize his immense gifts.
25.Cowboys - Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
2021 Stats: 6 SOLO, 1 FF
The player with the widest range of outcomes for draft night is Stingley. His 2019 film was as good as anyone in the nation’s from that season, and made him a potential top overall pick. But his 2020 season was poor, and then he played just three games in 2021 due to a foot injury.
Stingley could go as high as third to Houston, or the end of the first-round depending on how his draft process goes. His fall ends with Dallas in our first mock, as the Cowboys simply couldn’t say no to the talent value. Pairing Stingley with Trevon Diggs would be the most dangerous duo in the league.
26.Bills - Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
2021 Stats: 17 SOLO, 1 INT, 5 PD
Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has done an excellent job with the team, earning head coaching interviews after producing the top-ranked defense in the league despite zero Pro Bowlers. That’s underestimating the talent Buffalo has, but also indicative of a scheme that hides weaknesses. The one area the team could bolster is the second corner spot across from Tre White.
Adding the physical and smart Elam would further enhance the toughness and football IQ in the Bills’ secondary. He can compete with Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace for early playing time but projects as a plus long-term starter. He’s the ideal fit for Buffalo’s Cover 2 scheme.
27.Titans - Jermaine Johnson II, Edge, Florida State
2021 Stats: 34 SOLO, 12 SACK, 2 FF
The Titans have one of the better young defenses in the league but can continue pumping assets into the unit. Their free agent gamble on Bud Dupree, who was coming off a torn ACL, left their defense overly reliant on Harold Landry as an edge creator. Giving him a true complementary piece is critical.
Florida State hasn’t produced much lately but taking in Johnson, a Georgia transfer, was a good decision. Johnson is a star prospect who can start right away in the NFL. The prototypical 6’5”, 260-pounder is a standout run stopper already, and his breakout senior season highlighted his pass rush potential.
28.Buccaneers - Travon Walker, DL, Georgia
2021 Stats: 19 SOLO, 6 SACK
The benefit of having Tom Brady is that role players perform better when given the chance. Losing Chris Godwin was a blow, but the Bucs have been able to find production with Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman, and Cyril Grayson in his absence. Many around the league expect Godwin back in Tampa, which would allow the team to take the best player on the board.
For me, that’s versatile defensive lineman in Walker. He’s a great fit into a 3-4 defense, and could take the place of Ndamukong Suh whenever the veteran is ready to depart. The 6’5”, 275-pounder has solid quickness for his size and powerful hands.
29.Packers - George Pickens, WR, Georgia
2021 Stats: 5 REC, 107 YDS
Common opinion was that Pickens would sit out his junior season after suffering a torn ACL in the spring, but the star miraculously returned to the field for the final four games of the season to contribute to the Bulldogs’ national title quest. Pickens is arguably the best downfield receiving threat and blocker in the class. The 6’3”, 200-pounder should rise throughout the draft process after proving his health.
His role was a bit limited in Georgia’s passing offense, but he would thrive with a more aggressive quarterback. If Aaron Rodgers is back in 2022, he’ll need more weapons. The Packers are slated to lose several pass catchers, opening the window for Pickens to start Day 1.
30.Bengals - DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M
2021 Stats: 27 SOLO, 8.5 SACK, 1 FF
Cincinnati’s wonderful breakout season seemed unlikely not long ago due to questions about their offensive line and overall defensive upside. Joe Burrow and his weapons have succeeded despite the offensive line still needing help at right guard and center. Long-term, more work is needed on the line, and I expect the Bengals to be active in free agency to patch up at least two spots.
Doing so would free their first-round pick to address a defensive front needing more impactful players. A&M’s Leal is one of the best athletes in the class, so landing him here is a wonderful value. He can play inside or outside and bolster the pass rush for the Bengals without having to start.
31.Dolphins (via 49ers) - Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Size: 6’7”, 321 pounds
One reason why Miami’s season went haywire was the continued struggles along the offensive line. Their recent investments into the unit have largely failed, and their next head coach must prioritize fixing the unit for Tua Tagovailoa to have success. Signing a veteran or two will help, as will drafting a talented blocker like Penning.
He is a powerful downhill blocker who has dominant traits. Penning’s ease into the left tackle role, which is Tagovailoa’s front-facing direction, instead of having the pressure of being a blind-side protector as a rookie. His presence would also allow Jesse Davis to be moved back inside to his more natural guard position.
32.Lions (via Rams) - Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
2021 Stats: 79 REC, 1,572 YDS, 15 TD
If it weren’t for a torn ACL suffered earlier this month, Williams might be the first wide out taken in the 2022 draft class. He might still be because he’s that impactful with elite speed and smooth route running. Teams wary of his injury may opt for more immediate help, but that’s not a concern for the rebuilding Lions.
The Lions desperately need help at receiver after taking fliers in free agency last year. Pairing Williams with Amon-Ra St. Brown is an impressive start on a long-term duo that can threaten defenses. It’d also be great for Detroit’s culture to add another impactful player from a winning program.
33.Chiefs - Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
2021 Stats: 38 SOLO, 2 INT, 5 PD
The Chiefs changed the fate of their season after an alarming 2-3 start to the year after integrating younger players who allowed the defense to be more versatile. Adding length, athleticism, and speed to the secondary must continue to be a priority so long as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert are in the AFC. Even if Tyrann Mathieu doesn’t leave in free agency, adding another impactful safety can keep the Chiefs’ defense competitive.
Brisker can play in three-safety sets with ease. His 6’1”, 200-pound frame allows him to play man coverage in the slot or play closer to the box in run coverage. He’d be the perfect fit next to Mathieu and Juan Thornhill.