Jan 2, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) bows his head on the field before the game against the Arizona Cardinals at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL offseason has turned into as much of an event as a Sunday full of games. Between the coaching carousel, trades, free agency, and the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft, there are endless storylines that emerge from February through August. The flurry of transactions for each team sets the stage for success or failure the following fall.
Planning is a key part of every franchise’s process. Whether it’s an owner itching for a new general manager and head coach, or a front office looking to upgrade a few starting spots, no competent leader has just a Plan A. Those that panic and rush their process are easily exposed once the games begin.
We can already start to see the early writings on the wall from this free agency period as there are now clear winners and losers based on each team’s maneuvering. It’s not all about throwing a lot of money at your problems, but rather investing wisely into the right solutions and maximizing your assets.
We have five winners and five losers from the first two weeks of free agency. Some are players, others are entire teams, and some moves impact the greater direction of the league. Thankfully for the losers, there’s still time to change direction and save the offseason but time is ticking.
Winners: Bengals
No team entered free agency with a clearer plan than the Bengals. Knowing their offensive line could derail a potential dynasty from growing, the Bengals invested heavily into major upgrades. Quarterback Joe Burrow will immediately benefit from three new starters acquired in the first two weeks of free agency.
Landing tackle La’El Collins, right guard Alex Cappa, and center Ted Karras will have as big of an impact as any set of non-quarterback deals made this offseason. Collins and Cappa are Pro Bowl-caliber maulers in their prime years. Not only will Burrow see less pressure but rusher Joe Mixon now has the blocking needed to be the superstar ball-carrier.
The cost of these deals is heavy, but it shows how important it was for the Bengals to enter the draft with minor needs elsewhere. In total, Cincinnati committed $22 million to Collins, $40 million to Cappa, and $18 million to Karras. Watch for this offense to reach new heights in 2022.
Losers: Patriots
Last year’s spending spree by the Patriots helped a surprising outcome for a team still recovering from Tom Brady’s departure. But the short-sighted moves to overpay mediocre players led to what has been the worst offseason for any team in the league. The Patriots have had to stand on the sidelines while the rest of the AFC is enjoying an arm’s race.
Not only have the Patriots had their hands tied behind their back, but losing an elite offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels to the Raiders will severely hurt quarterback Mac Jones. McDaniels’ experience building various offenses and elevating unique skill sets is invaluable. The Patriots can’t replace him, and still haven’t announced a replacement.
New England won’t be a bottom-feeder, but is far from competing for a Super Bowl barring a Jones explosion. Bill Belichick’s waning coaching years may be rougher than anticipated as his roster has no way to overcome much stronger opponents.
Winners: Buccaneers
Tom Brady’s initial retirement was hard enough to believe considering his past statements, but the Buccaneers are happy as can be about his hastened return. Brady decided to return right before free agency, giving enough time for the franchise to quickly recalculate their plans. Tampa Bay was able to keep receiver Chris Godwin, center Ryan Jensen, and corner Carlton Davis in addition to acquiring guard Shaq Mason and receiver Russell Gage.
The recovery by the Bucs’ front office was perfectly executed. This is a ready-made roster still for Brady even as they need to replace other veterans. With so few holes, it’s easier for this regime to target draft prospects and value free-agents.
The short-term urgency with Tampa Bay hasn’t stopped them from playing the long game with their acquisitions. Being able to plug and play new additions into the lineup takes quality scouting and confidence from the staff. Kudos to the Buccaneers for continuing to nail it.
Loser: Trevor Lawrence
The Jaguars deserve credit for spending so much money on key veterans once again. They’ve swung and missed many times throughout the last decade of Shad Khan’s ownership, but they keep trying. Their 2022 haul includes some major upgrades that will help the team improve, but some of their reckless spending also kneecaps their efforts to build around Trevor Lawrence.
Signing Christian Kirk to a $72 million deal is an overpay, but not as egregious as their decision to sign Zay Jones, who also works best out of the slot, blocking Laviska Shenault and likely takes the Jaguars out of the market for a talented rookie in the 2022 NFL Draft class. The Jaguars still need a true No. 1 receiver despite allocating $117 million to Kirk, Jones, Evan Engram, and Marvin Jones.
The decision to franchise tag Cam Robinson for $16 million was also baffling. The team just invested a second-round pick in 2021 on Walker Little, and have right tackle Jawaan Taylor. Robinson hasn’t been good enough to keep around, let alone at a number that ate up the rest of their cap room.
Winner: QB Carousel
So much for an offseason that features more speculation than action. NFL teams are showing more aggressiveness than ever with quarterbacks. We’ve already seen trades involving Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Russell Wilson over the last few weeks. More are to come as Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield are being shopped by their teams.
This unprecedented rate of turnover has shattered expectations that teams care about dead cap hits and believing continuity will fix all issues. Coaching staffs have less time than ever to win, prompting a desperation for quality quarterback play.
The AFC has become a hotbed for quarterbacks in particular. Wilson and Ryan in particular add more savvy and competence. It’s crazy to think some of these superstars and future Hall of Famers will likely be at home come playoff time due to the high competition level.
Losers: Cowboys
There’s never been a better time in the NFC to go for broke than right now. The Rams lost Von Miller, Andrew Whitworth, and Darious Williams and must retool with a host of new starters. The Packers kept Aaron Rodgers, but traded away Davante Adams.
Yet, the Cowboys decided to take a step back instead of doubling down on their playmakers and managing the cap like the best front offices do. Watching Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, and La’El Collins depart for only a fifth-round pick as a return is devastating. The Cowboys would need extreme luck to reach the Super Bowl, let alone win one against a mighty AFC team.
The lack of upgrades on the Cowboys roster is most glaring. Losing high-priced veterans is part of free agency, but to only turn to the draft for replacements is a questionable, at best, tactic. Expect the Cowboys to take a major step back in 2022 when they didn’t have to.
Winners: Pass Rushers
Most of the free agent market received contracts of three years or less. This is a change compared to prior years, where everyone had their money spread out over five or more years in order to create void years and keep options to restructure open. However, pass-rushers still cashed in with long deals that continued to push the cost higher for the premier position.
The most notable was new Bills star Von Miller. His six-year, $120 million deal is risky since he’s already 32, but also a sign of the respect he’s earned for dominant play. Embattled former Cowboys edge Randy Gregory also received life-changing money from the Broncos as he inked a five-year, $70 million.
Even the shorter deals at the edge position had huge cash payouts. Chandler Jones and Haason Reddick received $51 million and $45 million from the Raiders and Eagles, respectively. Miami re-signed Emmanuel Ogbah to a $65 million deal after he had a career season. This premier position once again cleaned up on the open market.
Losers: Chiefs
While the AFC West in particular loaded up with stars, the Chiefs stood pat for the first wave of free agency. Trading out Tyrann Mathieu for Justin Reid was a shrewd move, but excuse us for not being impressed with an injured JuJu Smith-Schuster headlining the rest of the Chiefs’ moves. The Chiefs arguably have the third or fourth-best roster in the division.
Seeing the Raiders aggressively chase upgrades with Davante Adams and Chandler Jones raised the floor of the division considerably. Russell Wilson instantly made the Broncos Super Bowl contenders. And the Chargers have quickly assembled a who’s-who list of acquisitions via trade and signings.
The Chiefs have to step up their efforts to fill holes at cornerback, pass rusher, and receiver. The draft will need to be a home-run, or else they’re at risk of falling behind more than just the Bengals in 2022 and beyond.
Winner: Player Empowerment Movement
The NBA created a power shift years ago when the players realized they can dictate their career direction more than teams. Ultimately, talent is what wins and drives revenue. After dragging their feet in comparison, NFL stars are flexing their muscles to get where they want more than ever.
Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan were able to use their no-trade clauses to limit exactly where they’d be moved to. And the reasons they wanted out of their situations were completely unique. Watson wanted out of Houston despite just signing an extension after they fired Bill O’Brien and didn’t include him in the coaching search. Ryan was upset that Atlanta chased after Watson.
Aaron Rodgers stiff-armed the Packers into a $50 million-a-year deal even as Davante Adams was halfway out the door. Last year started this trend of more player power but this offseason has seen it grow to a new level. The NFL is changing before our eyes.
Losers: Falcons
The Falcons were destined to botch the Matt Ryan situation as soon as they decided to keep him in 2021. Head coach Arthur Smith and the new regime had the opportunity to completely reboot the Falcons before the 2021 NFL Draft. Trading Julio Jones and Ryan away would’ve opened the door for the franchise to cut their big expenses and recoup high draft picks for their veterans.
Instead, the Falcons had either no plan or an incompetent one. They opted to pass on Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields for tight end Kyle Pitts. Months later, they traded Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans, limiting the weapons Ryan could compete with.
After a desperate attempt to land Deshaun Watson, Ryan rightfully wanted out. The Falcons received just a third-round pick in 2022 for their all-time passing leader and have no heir on the roster or cap room to improve until next season. The Falcons couldn’t have handled this last year any worse.