Aug 21, 2020; Englewood, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller (58) during training camp at the UCHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL offseason is about to be crazy thanks to the revenue streams plummeting in the wake of the pandemic’s warpath. The salary cap is projected to be around $175 million, which is going to be troublesome for the six teams already slated to be at least $20 million over that number before they re-sign any free agents.
Veterans will be moved, and the 14 teams with at least $20 million of cap space should be aggressive since the cap should recover quickly if society gets closer to normal life in the fall. Signing back loaded deals or acquiring high-priced veterans via trade can be a wise gamble as teams buy low from cash-strapped franchises.
We found 10 high-profile veterans who could get traded this offseason. Some are more likely than others, but we'll breakdown the possibilities and project landing spots for each name.
Matt Ryan
Possible Suitors: Colts, Patriots, 49ers, WFT, Broncos
The Falcons have long possessed one of the most productive passing games in the league thanks to Matt Ryan, but as the franchise sits with the fourth overall pick and $24 million over the cap, there's hope around the league the franchise may be ready to blow it up. They owe $125 million to the five most expensive players on their roster, and the new regime must get their cap issues under control while also injecting a ton of talent. Moving Ryan could net them some serious assets and relieve future cap hits.
Ryan's still an above-average quarterback as he turns 36 this year. He'd be a perfect match for rosters like Indianapolis, New England, San Francisco, and Washington. And each of those teams has a first-round pick they could offer to incentivize the Falcons to take the plunge.
The tough part of moving Ryan is the money. Trading him prior to June 1 would actually cost them $3.5 million in cap due to his contract structure, and the team acquiring him would take on a massive $41 million cap hit. Atlanta would be eating a ton of money for an extra first-round pick and drop in production from the position.
Maybe restarting around Justin Fields or Zach Wilson plus a pass-rusher or cornerback of choice with that newly acquired pick is enticing enough, but it seems unlikely. Moving Ryan next year seems more likely since they'd save about $15 million of his $41.6 million cap hit. It's also possible the next staff simply accepts Ryan's last three years as a necessity due to the extreme money latched onto his deal, and that he's probably good enough to win with.
Matthew Stafford
Possible Suitors: Colts, Patriots, 49ers, WFT, Broncos
The other above-average quarterback mentioned in the rumor mill is Stafford. The soon-to-be 33-year-old has endured eight losing seasons in Detroit, and three in a row. He signed a five-year, $135 million deal in 2017 and has two seasons remaining for a total of $59 million owed to him.
The Lions own the seventh pick in the draft and a slew of veteran contracts that can be moved to open needed cap space. The mixture of several losing seasons, Stafford's tradable contract and the state of the franchise not improving since his arrival have led to speculation we've seen the last of the gunslinger in Detroit. A new regime is a good time to flush the variables that haven't been part of the solution.
Sitting in the top-10 already gives the Lions a good shot at landing a top-four quarterback prospect, and they should get no less than a first-round pick for Stafford from the same list of teams that would want Ryan. Stafford is younger, has been productive and more efficient as he's aged, and has a much better contract than the other quarterbacks on this list.
The biggest reason why the Lions could keep Stafford is that they're reportedly hiring Dan Campbell as their next head coach. Campbell is a true "football guy", a rah-rah coach who is more of a personality than tactician. We'll see how that works, but it's hard to imagine he'd be interested in a rebuild instead of utilizing the solid quarterback he already has in house and try to revamp on the go.
A Stafford deal looks somewhat unlikely overall right now unless he requests out, but more likely than a Ryan or Deshaun Watson deal. A bidding war could get interesting as contenders should desperately want an upgrade.
Deshaun Watson
Possible Suitors: Dolphins, Cowboys, WFT, 49ers, Jets
The dream trade for most of the league would be landing Watson. The 25-year old is starting his four-year, $156 million deal after 2021, and is an affordable $15.9 million this coming season. The recent disastrous display of management in Houston has led to massive speculation that Watson could try to strong-arm the organization into moving the superstar talent.
There might be seven teams that wouldn't trade their current quarterback for Watson if they could. Watson is a dynamic playmaker who's thrived with a predictable offense under Bill O'Brien. Putting him into a healthier ecosystem with a defense could lead to immediate Super Bowl contention.
The return for a Watson deal would be massive and likely prohibitive to any deal. Multiple first-round picks would be a start, and the Texans would likely want a young talented quarterback as well. That immediately narrows the list down to a handful of options if the Texans were adamant in getting a quarterback too. Only the Dolphins, Cardinals, Chargers, Bengals, Ravens, Cowboys, and Bills have young quarterbacks that would qualify, and most of those teams likely wouldn't do the deal for a variety of reasons.
Watson has almost no leverage to force a trade outside of sitting and that's incredibly unlikely. Houston has no reason to move him, and can still save their standing with him by simply including him in their thought process.
If they were to move him, the only teams that truly would make sense to me is Miami, offering Tua Tagovailoa and at least their two first-round picks this year, and the Cowboys in a sign-and-trade with Dak Prescott and a flurry of picks.
Carson Wentz
Possible suitors: Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Bears
The firing of coach Doug Pederson likely made Wentz less available than before the move. Their relationship had soured as the coach fought for his job and Wentz felt slighted despite his horrible play. We named six teams that could trade for Wentz previously, dispelling some of the concerns about his salary impeding on a deal.
Essentially, if the Eagles don't want to keep an upset, unproductive player at $34 million in 2021, it's worth it to jettison him elsewhere for even a Day 3 pick swap. Having both Jalen Hurts on the roster and the sixth pick in the draft allows them options to replace him and move on. If they think Joe Brady or another coach can get the most out of Wentz in 2021, he's worth keeping.
Wentz would be a flier acquisition on a two-year deal that's tough to get out of until after 2022 but he has considerable upside as an athletic big-play passer. There aren't many quarterbacks available via trade, free agency and the draft, so it'd make sense for teams to sniff around.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Possible Suitors: Patriots, WFT, Packers, 49ers
Is it possible that the Browns disassemble parts of their best roster since their reincarnation after a playoff appearance? It's possible, as sources around the league expect the Browns to at least see what they could get for Beckham Jr. The market would certainly be cooler than when the Browns traded for him despite his obvious talent.
Beckham is on a team-friendly contract with zero dollars in dead money on his remaining three years and $45.7 owed to him. But he's coming off two strange, inconsistent years with Baker Mayfield, and also a torn ACL. The Browns could use the money owed to him to find a deep threat and another edge pass-rusher.
Interested teams will have to bet on their quarterback developing better chemistry with Beckham than what shockingly happened in Cleveland. Mayfield became less efficient when throwing to him, but that may have been more to do with him playing poorly overall and not just a result of forcing the ball his way. Beckham struggled with drops and couldn't create as many big plays so it wasn't all on Mayfield.
A trade package featured around a second-round pick and maybe a Day 3 pick seems sufficient in a receiver-deep class. The 28-year-old will be motivated after an injury-shortened season and could pay off massively for any team trading for him.
Adam Thielen
Possible Suitors: Dolphins, Ravens, Seahawks, Raiders
The Vikings likely would've moved Thielen had they not won three straight games after starting 1-5 this season. They moved Yannick Ngakoue after just a few games as they felt their season slipping away before it really began. Trading the 30-year-old Thielen would open $8 million for a team that's $9 million over the projected cap entering 2021.
Thielen is still an impactful receiver capable of creating big plays. He's reached 925 yards four times in his career, and set a career-high in touchdown receptions with 14 this year. He's a safe acquisition for playoff-hopeful teams needing an instant boost for a moderate price.
Minnesota showed they can replace a veteran quickly by drafting Justin Jefferson after trading Stefon Diggs. It's unlikely they could do so well twice in a row, but Thielen's value will never be higher than this offseason. Getting a Day 2 and Day 3 pick for him would allow the front office to maneuver with some cap space and extra picks.
Von Miller
Possible Suitors: Jets, Colts, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Dolphins
New Denver Broncos general manager George Patton has to retool a veteran roster while figuring out decisions with multiple key defenders. Denver has almost $20 million in cap space and the need for a quarterback looms large over the franchise. Another year of missing the playoffs will cost the coaching staff their jobs and a massive roster shakeup.
Colorado police are investigating Miller stemming from a domestic violence allegation. The Broncos may have already been considering moving on from him before that. The soon-to-be- 32-year-old has a $22 million salary for next season that’s unlikely to be matched with justified production after just eight sacks last year. It's a bad blend of circumstances and a fresh start elsewhere might be necessary.
Miller didn't look bad despite the drop in production last year, and his athletic upside is worth a shot for many teams. His salary is prohibitive as-is, but reworking his deal would mean more suitors are possible. This free agent class is severely lacking playmakers and Miller, if cleared of his investigation, is well-worth a Day 2 pick.
No team would need to justify bringing in Miller based on his pass-rush prowess. At worst, he'd be the best second-rusher on any roster. At best he returns to his double-digit sack numbers and dominates as he nears his mid-30s.
JJ Watt
Possible Suitors: Patriots, Bengals, Chargers, Cardinals, Packers, Steelers, Dolphins
While it's unlikely Watson gets moved, we've likely seen the last of Watt in Houston. The long-time face of the franchise has been displeased with how ownership has handled the Jack Easterby situation and continued muffling of football decisions. At almost 32 years old, Watt wants to win.
Coming off a healthy season that saw a low number of sacks (five) but making $17 million, it's likely we see his deal re-done to be more incentivized. Watt's played in 16 games just twice since 2015, and although he has immense physical ability, that injury risk limits his value in a trade. The Texans can't expect much in return and would see this more as a favor for Watt.
Prospective teams should absolutely want the versatile star. A leader in the locker room and community, Watt can still at times be one of the most well-rounded defenders in the league on the field. His ability to play inside at defensive tackle, a 5-technique in a 3-4, and edge in a 4-3 gives him unique value.
Contenders will want to gamble on his upside and certain markets will want his persona as well.
Geno Atkins
Possible Suitors: Bills, Raiders, Cowboys, Titans, Saints, Seahawks, Buccaneers
One of the baffling decisions last offseason was why Cincinnati kept so many aging veterans despite clearly featuring a rebuilding roster. They traded Carlos Dunlap mid-season and should've moved AJ Green, and now it's time to see former franchise star Atkins move on so they can really rebuild this roster. Atkins ended 2020 in injured reserve after barely playing all season due to a shoulder injury.
Atkins is owed $14.7 million and $9.5 million of that would come off their cap sheet in a deal. With Atkins turning 33 years old, and surely wants to close out his career on a higher note than the project the Bengals are, a deal would be a show of good faith and chance to get a compensatory-level pick in return.
If Atkins can get back to 2019 level and stay healthy, he can take over stretches of games. That's hard to find from a defensive tackle, and therefore is highly valuable. Contenders only need apply, and at worst Atkins would be a high-level rotational piece.
Possible Suitors: Bills, Raiders, Cowboys, Titans, Saints, Seahawks, Buccaneers
Stephon Gilmore
Possible Suitors: Browns, WFT, Cardinals, 49ers, Panthers, Jaguars
There's already been rumors in the past that the Patriots shopped the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year, and it feels inevitable that the team will move him this offseason. The Patriots have the fourth-most cap space entering the offseason but have a ton of moves to make to be competitive. Paying Gilmore $16 million as he nears 31 years old isn't the Bill Belichick style.
That doesn't mean Gilmore isn't worth trading for, though. The physical corner is still in his prime as a physical ballhawk who can hold his own against anyone. Corners tend to decline quickly but 2021 is the last year of his deal, so there's no long-term risk.
Just like for an edge-rusher, finding suitors is simple. Gilmore is excellent in man and very good in zone alike, so he's going to fit in most places. Look for contenders and young teams wanting to make a big jump as ideal candidates.
A Day 2 pick would be a good value for both the Patriots and their trade partner. Gilmore would immediately upgrade almost every secondary in the league, and the Patriots can use the $7.3 million they'd save in a deal to replenish the talent around No. 2 corner JC Jackson. Every bit will help as they chase the big-ticket quarterbacks and offensive upgrades.