Why Your Squad Will (But Probably Won't) Win the Super Bowl

There are 32 NFL squads and only one Lombardi Trophy, which means that 96.8 percent of teams won’t get to hold it in February. Some teams (the Patriots, Vikings, and Eagles) have better chances than others (the Browns, Bills, and Jets), but the reality is that despite every fan’s sky-high Week 1 expectations, the season will almost certainly end in disappointment. It’s sort of morbid when you think about it.

At the same time, the coming of Week 1 brings a justified hope to every fanbase. All teams start out 0-0 and anything can happen in 17 weeks. How many people at this time last year would have said that a Nick Foles led Eagles team would win the Super Bowl? Probably not too many. Stories like this make fans of even the worst teams tune in in hopes that they’ll be the beneficiary of this year’s surprises.

But don’t get your hopes up. It probably won’t be your team.

In keeping with this optimism (and more pessimistic statistical realities) here’s the Super Bowl case for and against all 32 NFL teams. See why your team will (but probably won’t) win it all this year.

Eagles

Why they will: Even stronger squad than last year.

This offseason, the reigning Super Bowl champs were able to retain most of their key contributors from last season, and even added Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Bennett and former All-Pro nose tackle Haloti Ngata into the mix. With a healthy Carson Wentz, Philly could be in prime position to repeat.

Why they won’t: Repeating is hard.

Only eight teams in NFL history have won the Super Bowl in back-to-back years, and no team has done it since the Patriots in 2004. Philly is a good a repeat candidate as there has ever been, but running the table in the playoffs two years in a row is a statistical anomaly.

Giants

Why they will: The 2016 gang is (mostly) back—plus Saquon.

Coming off of a 11-win season, the Giants were widely expected to contend again ahead of last season. Five weeks later, the team’s season was all but done—they were 0-5 and had lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the season.

The Giants will look to regain that 2016 spark, which is certainly possible considering that five of their six All-Pro players from that team (Beckham, Damon Harrison, Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins, and Olivier Vernon) are still there now. And the Giants will certainly have a much better running game and offense than they did in 2016, with the selection of No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley and the signing of former Patriots guard Nate Solder. Look for the G-Men to be a prime bounce-back candidate in 2018.

Oh, and one more thing working in the Giants’ favor: Ben McAdoo isn’t the coach anymore.

Why they won’t: Last year was pretty, pretty, pretty bad.

2017 may have been a fluke for the G-Men. But it might not have been: The Giants let up the second-most yards in the league, and 37-year-old Eli Manning started to show his age. Manning’s 19 touchdowns were the third-fewest of his career, and his 3,468 yards passing his fewest in almost a decade.

It’s reasonable to believe that the defense can bounce back, since it was so great in 2016. But it’s tougher to believe that a QB in his late 30s can rediscover himself at this stage of the game.

Cowboys

Why they will: Zeke’s back.

The Cowboys will need to rely on Ezekiel Elliott this year perhaps more than any other team will need to rely on their running back.

The Dak Prescott n’ Zeke era opened to such promise in 2016; the team went 13-3 and was the best in the NFC. But a six-game suspension for Elliott last season put a major damper on any potential Cowboys playoff run. They were 6-4 when Zeke played in 2017, and just 3-3 when he didn’t. They’ll need him to do everything he can this season if they want to contend.

Why they won’t: Who are these wide receivers?

The Cowboys’ current wide receiver depth chart currently reads like this: Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Michael Gallup, Deonte Thompson, and Tavon Austin.

That’s doesn’t exactly instill fear into opposing secondaries.

Williams had the most receiving yards of the five last season, with just 568. The Cowboys don’t currently have anyone who is No. 1 receiver caliber, which is troublesome considering Prescott’s regression last year. He’ll need all the help he can get, and right now it doesn’t look like he’ll have much at all.

Redskins

Why they will: Alex Smith is a winner.

You might not have realized this, but Alex Smith is 69-31 as a starter since 2011. He’s more than just a game manager.

Smith led the NFL in quarterback rating last year, as he threw for a career-high 4,042 yards with 26 touchdowns against just five interceptions. He will be working with a much weaker team this year, but his ability shouldn’t be underestimated.

Why they won’t: No running backs.

Adrian Peterson’s presence would have made any backfield the NFL’s best in 2012.

In 2018? Not so much.

Washington was hoping to have second-round pick Derrius Guice occupy the starting back role this season, but a torn ACL in preseason dashed those hopes quickly. The ‘Skins will now rely on a hodgepodge of Peterson, Byron Russell, Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine, and Chris Thompson. Unless Peterson has something left at the bottom of that tank, none of these guys are exactly contenders for a 1,000-yard season.

Patriots

Why they will: Brady and Belichick.

It’s true that Tom Brady is 41 years old. It’s true that the Patriots lost key contributors Malcolm Butler, Dion Lewis, Nate Solder, Danny Amendola, and Brandin Cooks. And it’s also true that first-round pick Isaiah Wynn, who was likely going to be Solder’s replacement this season, will miss all of 2018.

But when Bill Belichick is your coach and Tom Brady is your quarterback, you can’t not have a shot to win it all.

Belichick and Brady, as you may have heard, have won five Super Bowls together, and have made a whopping seven consecutive AFC Championship games. Even if the rest of the roster is suspect, they’ll figure something out.

Why they won’t: The Super Bowl loser curse.

This might be more of a "correlation not equating to causation" thing, but only seven teams who lost the Super Bowl in the prior year made it back the next season—and three of those teams were the 90s Bills. The only two to win it after losing the previous year are the 1971 Cowboys and the 1972 Dolphins. Of course, this probably won’t be a precedent the Patriots think that much about, but it’s not really encouraging.

Jets

Why they will: They exceed expectations.

The Jets were widely considered to be the worst team in the NFL headed into last year. They were coming off of a 5-11 season to begin with, and lost key contributors Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall, Darrelle Revis, and Sheldon Richardson to put the team in full-on tank mode.

But instead of a complete tank, the 2017 Jets only partially tanked to the tune of a 5-11 record. That might not look that impressive on the surface, but it’s certainly a lot better than what just about everyone expected out of this team. This year, the Jets will have even more talent to work with after adding Trumaine Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Avery Williamson, Terrelle Pryor into the mix—and a potential franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold.

If they exceed expectations again, it could mean the playoffs at the very least.

Why they won’t: They’re built for 2019.

With a young starting quarterback and a plethora of young guns like Jamal Adams, Marcus Maye, Leonard Williams, and Robby Anderson solidifying their place in the NFL, the Jets aren’t built to contend in 2018.

But it’s certainly looking like they will be in 2019.

In addition to their plethora of young stars on the roster, the Jets are projected to have $88 million in cap space in 2019. This will give them ample resources to surround Darnold with the weapons he needs to succeed in the NFL. A golden age of Jets football has a serious chance of commencing next year.

Of course, the Jets will probably find a way to screw things up. But there’s still a chance.

Dolphins

Why they will: No More Jay Cutler.

The Dolphins went 10-6 in 2016, and looked to be in prime playoff position again before Ryan Tannehill tore his ACL in training camp. In a desperation signing, Miami lured Jay Cutler out of retirement on a one-year deal.

Enter the most frustrating quarterback in NFL history.

What makes Cutler so frustrating isn’t that he’s awful; it’s that he’s just good enough to keep you relevant, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Cutler went 6-8 as the Dolphins’ starter last season, leading an offense that posted the third-most turnovers in the NFL.

Tannehill is no Dan Marino, but he’s much better than Cutler, and was a huge part of the team’s resurgence in 2016. Having him back puts them in a much better place under center.

Why they won’t: No more Landry, Pouncy, or Suh.

Jarvis Landry, Mike Pouncey, and Ndamukong Suh were three of the most pivotal parts of the Dolphins’ 2016 playoff team. All three are now gone after an offseason of change in Miami, which saw Landry get traded to the Browns and Pouncey and Suh get released. Replacing these players will be a tough task for a team coming off of a very difficult 6-10 season.

Bills

Why they will: Defensive line improvements.

The Bills’ defensive line was the team’s weakest point last year; their 27 sacks were tied for the third-fewest in the NFL. In spite of this, the team was able to make its first playoff appearance of the millennium.

This year’s D-line looks to be much stronger with the additions of Trent Murphy and Star Lotulelei. Murphy missed all of last season, but recorded nine sacks with the Redskins in 2016. Lotulelei has been the Panthers’ nose tackle since Carolina drafted him 14th overall in 2013, and has missed just four games over his career. Both of these players give the Bills’ a great chance to shore up their pass rush.

Why they won’t: Roster turnover.

Since 2000, Tyrod Taylor is the only Bills quarterback with at least 15 starts to have a winning record. And now he’s gone.

Not only will the Bills be without the quarterback of last year’s playoff team, but they’ll also be without three of their five offensive line starters. Longtime fixtures Eric Wood and Richie Incognito both retired, and tackle Cordy Glenn was traded to the Bengals. None of this bodes well for LeSean McCoy, who has now hit the dreaded age of 30.

Vikings

Why they will: Best roster in football.

Top to bottom, the Vikings clearly have the best roster in football. Minnesota’s defense was tops in the league in both points and yardage last season, and they still managed to field the 10th best scoring offense. The offense could get even better this season, with the addition of former Pro Bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins and the return of running back Dalvin Cook.

Cousins has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in each of the last three seasons, and has never had as talented a receiving corps as he will with Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. Cook, who rushed for 354 yards in four games last season, will also be key to the Vikings’ quest to field an elite offense to supplement their league-best defense.

Why they won’t: They’re the Vikings.

The Vikings have a knack for finding new and excruciating ways to disappoint their fans. But not in a “go 1-15 every year” way like the Browns do. Minnesota’s disappointments usually come at the most inopportune and soul-crushing times possible.

It was the Vikings who lost four Super Bowls before it was cool, which they did from 1969 through 1977. In the 1998 NFC Championship game, kicker Gary Anderson missed his first field goal of the season late in that game that eventually forced an overtime loss. And in the 2009 NFC Championship game, in the fringes of field-goal range, Brett Favre tossed an awful interception to send the game into another ill-fated overtime.

The Vikings’ luck struck again last season, after a disappointing NFC Championship game loss followed an epic come-from-behind win in the Divisional round. What will it be this year?

Packers

Why they will: Aaron Rodgers.

The rest of their roster is far from stacked. But as long as Aaron Rodgers is the Packers’ quarterback, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they won’t be in the Super Bowl mix.

Save for his first year as a starter in 2008, the Packers have made the playoffs in every season where Rodgers has played the majority of their games, making him well worth his monster new $134 million contract extension. Rodgers will once again keep an otherwise shaky Green Bay ship afloat in 2018.

Why they won’t: The NFL’s toughest schedule.

By strength of schedule, the Packers have the league’s toughest slate in 2018. They have six matchups against 2017 playoff teams, including a pair against the division-rival Vikings. Green Bay will also have to face a solid Lions team twice, the new-look 49ers, and go to Seattle to face the Seahawks. This might make a Wild Card spot a bit tougher to attain.

Lions

Why they will: Awesome air attack.

In considering a team’s quarterback and receiving corps together, the Lions might have the best all-around passing game in the NFL.

Detroit has former No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford under center, who has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in each of the last seven seasons. Stafford also has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. 2017 third-round pick Kenny Golladay could see an expanded role this year as well; he recorded 375 receiving yards over the final eight games of last season. Golladay is just 24 years old, and has shown solid potential as a No. 3 receiver.

Stafford can sling it, and he certainly has no shortage of options to sling it to.

Why they won’t: Let’s win a playoff game first.

Since 1958, the Lions have won one playoff game. One. In 60 years.

Their lone playoff victory since the 50s came after the 1991 season, making their current drought the second-longest in the NFL. This obviously means that Stafford has yet to win a playoff game as an NFL quarterback. And since winning playoff games is apparently a requisite to playing the Super Bowl, it’s safe to say it might take some time before the Lions make their first appearance.

Bears

Why they will: Return of the Mack.

Butkus, Singletary, Urlacher, and now Mack.

The Bears have historically been a breeding ground for Hall of Fame linebackers, and now they have their latest: Khalil Mack. The 2016 Defensive Player of the Year has posted double-digit sacks in each of the past three seasons, and will create nightmare scenarios for NFC North quarterbacks. Mack’s addition—along with newcomers Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, and No. 8 overall pick Roquan Smith—inject new life into a Bears franchise that has the third-longest playoff drought in the NFL. It’s a new era in Chicago.

Why they won’t: Inexperience.

A second-year quarterback and a rookie head coach aren’t exactly a win-now combo.

2017’s No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky largely struggled during his 12-game stint as a starter last year, passing for just seven touchdowns. First-year head coach Matt Nagy also finds himself facing longshot championship odds: Only two rookie head coaches have ever won the Super Bowl. Those two were Don McCafferty with the Colts in 1970, and George Seifert with the 49ers in 1989—and both of those guys inherited championship-contending teams with Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Nagy won’t have that luxury with the Bears, or with Mitchell Trubisky.

Steelers

Why they will: No more Todd Haley.

The Steelers may have added by subtracting this offseason, by virtue of letting go of Todd Haley.

Cue a sigh of relief from Ben Roethlisberger.

Despite the Steelers’ consistently-elite offenses, the former offensive coordinator was notorious for having an awful relationship with Big Ben. The two often didn’t see eye-to-eye, and according to Le'Veon Bell, Haley would often call plays that Roethlisberger didn’t like in key situations. New OC Randy Fichtner has been on the Steelers’ staff for 11 seasons, so hopefully he will have better chemistry with Pittsburgh’s franchise QB.

Why they won’t: Team drama.

Ahead of last year’s playoffs, several Steelers players were talking publicly about beating the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

The only problem was that they had to beat the Jaguars first to get there. And they didn’t.

While a 13-3 season is obviously great, the Steelers have had more than a few dramatic episodes over the past few years—and the premature Patriots talk was just the latest example. From Antonio Brown hoping on Facebook Live immediately after a game to the national anthem locker room incident to the never-ending contract stalemate with Bell, this kind of drama is quite uncharacteristic from one of the league’s most stable franchises.

Ravens

Why they will: Better wide receivers.

The additions of Michael Crabtree and John Brown give Joe Flacco and Co. two solid options in the air—Crabtree in the red zone, and Brown as a deep threat. The Ravens already had the ninth-best red-zone scoring percentage in the NFL last season, so Crabtree could stand to make them all the more better. And Brown could help Flacco utilize his big-time arm strength with his elite downfield speed. These additions could make the Ravens offense the best it’s been since 2012.

Why they won’t: Joe Flacco isn’t elite.

In the five seasons since his magical run to the Super Bowl, Flacco has gone just 38-36, and made the playoffs just once. It is starting to look more and more like that 2012 season was a fluke. Flacco is still a capable passer, but he probably won’t be playing on a Super Sunday again any time soon.

Bengals

Why they will: Offensive line improvement.

The Bengals’ O-line has been in shambles ever since Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler both left after the 2016 season. But Cincy addressed this issue over the offseason, by trading for Bills tackle Cordy Glenn and drafting Ohio State center Billy Price in the first round. Both Glenn and Price could help open up holes for Joe Mixon, and give Andy Dalton more time to find A.J. Green.

Why they won’t: Marvin Lewis.

Maybe we should cut the head coach some slack.

The Bengals have been one of the NFL’s most dysfunctional franchises for the last 30 years. Mike Brown is one of the worst owners (and GM) in the NFL. Before Lewis, the team had gone 14 years without even a single playoff appearance. That Lewis’ record with the Bengals is over .500 might be a testament to his great coaching—in spite of some less-than-ideal circumstances.

At the same time, there are no excuses for winning zero playoff games in 15 seasons. And there’s no reason to believe that year 16 is going to be any different for Lewis and the Bengals.

Browns

Why they will: They’ve built a winner.

And by “winner,” I mean winner of at least one game.

Cleveland made a litany of splashes this offseason, adding accomplished veterans like Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Carlos Hyde, Damarious Randall, and E.J. Gaines to an 0-16 squad. Did somebody say 7-9?

If Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers, and David Njoku continue to improve—in addition to No. 4 overall pick Denzel Ward and Josh Gordon can, in the words of Stephen A. Smith, “stay off the weeeeeeeeed,” Cleveland has the chance to be a very compelling team in 2018—irrespective of whether or not Baker Mayfield starts.

Why they won’t: I mean...do I even have to say it?

Since December 18, 2015, there have been four times as many Star Wars movies released (four) as Browns wins (one).

That pretty much tells you everything you need to know about the Browns.

Saints

Why they will: A better defense.

The Saints’ offensive dominance last year came as a surprise to no one. It was their defensive solidity that really turned heads and allowed them to contend.

Led by rookie defensive backs Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams, the Saints’ D finished last year 16th in yards allowed and 11th in scoring. This year, it should be even stronger, with the signings of linebacker DeMario Davis, safety Kurt Coleman, and cornerback Patrick Robinson. All three players—while not the biggest names in the league—are solid starters, and make the New Orleans defense a truly formidable unit.

Why they won’t: Penalties.

The Saints’ penalty problems killed them in last year’s divisional game against the Vikings. New Orleans committed six penalties for 92 yards in the first half of that game alone, which helped dig them a hole that they ultimately never got out of. This wasn’t an isolated incident either; the Saints committed the eighth-most penalties in the league last year, and accrued the second-most penalty yards. You don’t see truly great teams make mistakes to this degree.

Falcons

Why they will: A quietly solid defense.

The Falcons probably aren’t the first team that comes to mind when thinking great NFL defenses. And while they certainly aren’t the ‘85 Bears, the Falcons have quietly become one of the NFL’s most consistent defensive teams.

Atlanta has finished top 10 in scoring defense in each of the past two seasons, supplementing its star-studded offense. Dan Quinn has improved the D by volumes since taking over in 2015, and guys like Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, and Vic Beasley have all helped. The Falcons could finish this season top 10 in scoring offense and defense, especially if Matt Ryan plays like he did in 2016.

Why they won’t: The Super Bowl is in Atlanta.

No team has ever won—or even played in—a Super Bowl in their home stadium. The Super Bowl is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta this year.

If there’s any team that could be the first to do it, it’s the Falcons, who nearly won it all two years ago. But a Super Bowl with home-field advantage is still something that we may never get to see.

Panthers

Why they will: A three-headed running monster.

C.J. Anderson, Christian McCaffrey, and Cam Newton are perfect rushing complements to each other.

Anderson’s physical, down-field running style, McCaffrey’s dynamic presence on passing downs, and Newton’s ability to scramble at any time create a three-headed monster out of the backfield that has potential to wreak havoc on the NFC South. All three of these guys could be 1,000-yard rushers if they were full-time running backs, and having to decide who will get the most touches is a great problem for the Panthers to have.

Why they won’t: Offensive line woes.

Andrew Norwell and Matt Kalil have been the Panthers’ two best offensive lineman over the last four seasons. Carolina will be without both of them in Week 1; Norwell signed with the Jaguars in the offseason and Khalil will miss at least half of the season after being put on injured reserve. Pro Football Focus ranked the Panthers’ O-line 10th-best last year, but it’s safe to say they’ll be considerably lower this year.

Buccaneers

Why they will: Better kicking (yes, really).

This might sound ridiculous, but the Bucs’ kicking situation over the last decade has been awful and has cost them several close games. This was underscored in 2016 with the second-round selection of Roberto Aguayo, who lasted just one season with the team. Aguayo’s 2017 replacement, Nick Folk, was even worse. He went just 6-for-11 on his field-goal attempts before the Bucs cut him after a 19-14 loss to the Patriots, a game where which Folk missed all three of his field goals.

The addition of Chandler Catanzaro—who will be the Bucs’ eighth kicker in the last 10 seasons—will hopefully bring the team stability at this position. Cantanzaro converted on 83.3 percent of his attempts last season with the Jets, and boasts an 84.4 career field-goal percentage. He has strong potential to finally close the Tampa Bay kicking vacuum that has existed for far too long.

Why they won’t: Turnovers.

The Bucs finished last season tied for sixth in the NFL with 27 giveaways. Jameis Winston was the main culprit in this respect; he threw 11 interceptions and lost a league-high seven fumbles. Winston is heading into his fourth NFL season—or at least he will be after his three-game suspension is up—and the pressure will be on for him to prove he’s not a bust. Because as of right now, he hasn’t lived up to expectations as a No. 1 overall selection.

Jaguars

Why they will: Defense wins championships.

The Jaguars came within one game of the Super Bowl last season on the back of its elite defense—which was second in both yardage and scoring. Jacksonville’s D sent six of its 11 starters to the Pro Bowl, and all six of them (Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Telvin Smith, Calais Campbell, and Yannick Ngakoue) will be back this year. Couple that with a healthy Leonard Fournette and the addition of All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell, and there’s no limit to what this team can do.

Why they won’t: Blake Bortles and his receivers.

Last year, Blake Bortles showed the league that he can be a capable game manager when needed. But he’ll be without a few of his favorite weapons this year; Marqise Lee is out for the season with a torn ACL, and longtime Jaguar Allen Hurns has signed with the Cowboys. This leaves Bortles with an inexperienced wide receiver corps of Keelan Cole, DJ Clark Jr, Rashar Green Sr., Dede Westbrook, and Donte Moncrief. Even for a run-first team, this doesn’t bode as a great passing formula.

Titans

Why they will: Better coaching.

Mike Mularkey was one of the rare NFL coaches to get fired after winning a playoff game. And he deserved it.

The former Titans, Jaguars, and Bills head coach with a 37-54 career record was replaced in favor of three-time Super Bowl champion Mike Vrabel. The Titans definitely needed to upgrade their coaching if they wanted to take that next leap forward, and they’ll hope that upgrade comes in the form of Vrabel. The longtime Patriots linebacker served as the Texans’ defensive coordinator last season, and brings a winning pedigree to a team that needs it badly.

Why they won’t: Marcus Mariota’s regression.

Marcus Mariota hit the ground running in his first two NFL seasons, posting QB ratings of 91.5 and 95.6 respectively. It looked like he was well on his way to becoming the franchise quarterback the Titans had bargained for with the No. 2 overall pick.

Then came last year.

Mariota struggled mightily throughout the season, throwing for a career-low 13 touchdowns and a career-high 15 interceptions. A strong defense and running game helped minimize the impact of his poor season, but Mariota cannot afford to regress again if the Titans are to step forward.

Colts

Why they will: Andrew Luck is back.

Luck’s true value to the Colts was on full display last season—when he wasn’t even playing.

The former No. 1 overall pick has gone 43-27 over his NFL career, and has single-handedly kept the Colts in contention when he’s healthy. Without him, they only managed to go 4-12 last year.

That Luck has been able to keep the Colts afloat without a real supporting cast (save for T.Y. Hilton) is a testament to how great Luck has been. It remains to be seen if he will ever play like this again, after shoulder issues have derailed his last three seasons. But having No. 12 back under center certainly provides for more hope than Jacoby Brissett.

Why they won’t: Have you seen the rest of the team?

Aside from Luck and Hilton, the rest of the Colts’ roster is…well, trash. Indy’s defense allowed the third-most points in the NFL last season, and didn’t really improve much this offseason. The Colts’ O-line struggles will likely continue, which leaves Luck vulnerable to yet another injury. Marlon Mack, who averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last season, doesn’t look like he’ll be the next Edgerrin James. There’s a reason why this team went 4-12 last year, and Luck’s return can only help so much.

Texans

Why they will: NFL’s easiest schedule.

On the basis of strength of schedule, the Texans have the weakest schedule in the NFL. This includes a pair of games against the Colts, and matchups against the Bills, Redskins, Jets, and Browns. A schedule like this could put them in playoff position if the oft-injured Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt can stay healthy.

Why they won’t: Watt’s health.

When healthy, Watt is the best player in the NFL: He averaged 17.3 sacks per season from 2012 through 2015, and won Defensive Player of the Year three times during that stretch.

But over the last two years, Watt has struggled to stay on the field, playing in just eight total games. This will need to change if the Texans’ defense is to keep them in contention. Houston let up the most points in the NFL last season, a year that mostly did not include Watt.

Rams

Why they will: An NFL-best offseason.

The Rams broke a 14-year playoff drought last year largely on the back of their high-octane offense. Just about all of their key contributors—Todd Gurley, Jared Goff, and yes, Aaron Donald—will be back in 2018. And four new stars added this offseason could be enough to put this team over the top.

Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Ndamukong Suh, and Brandin Cooks joined the squad this year, each with Pro Bowl level ability and the potential to make a great Rams team even better. L.A. had the 10th worst defense in the NFL last year, and still managed to win 11 games. If Peters, Talib, and Suh play like they historically have, that defense could go from the bottom 10 to top 10.

Why they won’t: Chemistry issues.

While Peters, Talib, and Suh are all capable of playing at high levels, they each come with their own amounts of off-field baggage. Last year, Peters was suspended for a game by the Chiefs after arguing with an unnamed coach, and infamously throwing a referee’s flag into the stands. Talib also received a suspension last year after his infamous chain snatching started a brawl between the Broncos and Raiders. And Suh’s penchant for being one of the NFL’s dirtiest players hasn’t exactly made him one of the most beloved figures.

The Rams have one of the league’s most talented rosters. But the locker-room situation looks a bit volatile, to say the least, and might be a lot for 32-year-old head coach Sean McVay to handle.

Seahawks

Why they will: Pete Carroll’s genius.

In the 21 seasons before Pete Carroll, the Seahawks had made just six playoff appearances, won four playoff games, and had never won a championship.

This has all changed when Carroll came to town in 2010. Seattle has made six playoff appearances in his eight seasons, won nine playoff games, and took home the team’s first-ever Lombardi Trophy in 2013. Even if the Seahawks’ roster isn’t what it used to be, it’ll be hard to doubt a team led by Carroll.

Why they won’t: Where’d everyone go?

The “Legion of Boom” is no longer.

Only five Seahawks from the 2013 Super Bowl team remain on this year’s roster: Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, K.J. Wright, Bobby Wagner, and Earl Thomas. Seattle’s running game remains in limbo, as the team has largely failed to replace Marshawn Lynch since he left in 2015. And their offensive line is currently ranked 30th by Pro Football Focus. None of this instills much confidence in going up against an extremely tough NFC West.

Cardinals

Why the will: Another quarterback resurrection.

Kurt Warner came to the Cardinals in 2005 after an underwhelming end to his Rams and Giants careers. Three years later, he was within yards of winning the Super Bowl.

The same goes with Carson Palmer, who was traded to Arizona from the Raiders for next to nothing in 2013. At 33, it looked like his best days were behind him. But it turned out they were actually ahead of him: Palmer went 38-21 in his five seasons in Arizona, which included a trip to the NFC Championship Game in 2015.

Could the Cardinals do the same with Sam Bradford?

The former No. 1 overall pick has flashed potential at times, but Bradford has largely failed to sustain it. Entering his ninth year in the NFL, Bradford will have the privilege of playing on a team with an elite running back in David Johnson and a future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. If he’s going to resurrect his career, this is the place to do it.

Why they won’t: Sam Bradford is the quarterback.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that Bradford never had the early-career success that Warner or Palmer have had. He’s had a grand total of zero winning seasons in the NFL (excluding his 2-0 finish with the Vikings last year) and has started all 16 games in a season just twice in his career—the last of those two occurrences came in 2012. If that’s what the Cardinals are going to have to rely on, good luck.

49ers

Why they will: The rebuild is over.

The final five weeks of the 2017 season showed 49ers fans that a new era is on the horizon.

Jimmy Garoppolo's five consecutive wins, coupled with the signings of Richard Sherman and Weston Richburg, surely provide cause for optimism this year. They have their franchise quarterback and a solid supporting cast to boot. The Niners could break their five-year playoff drought with this team.

Why they won’t: Small sample size.

Yeah, that 5-0 finish was awesome and all, but it was only five games. This is still a team coming off of three consecutive 10 loss seasons, facing a tough division that features the Rams and Seahawks. The Niners surely have potential, but you can’t base title hopes on a five-game sample.

Chargers

Why they will: Strong secondary.

The Chargers’ secondary is drawing comparisons to the Legion of Boom.

Over the past two seasons, L.A. has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the league, the second-most interceptions, and the fifth-lowest Total QBR against. Much of this comes thanks to Casey Hayward, whose 11 picks are tied for the most in the NFL since 2016. Trevor Williams, Jaheel Addea, and 2018 first-rounder Derwin James round out an elite Chargers secondary, which could be a driver of an L.A. resurgence in 2018.

Why they won’t: Keenan Allen’s health.

Allen is one of the NFL’s best receivers when he’s healthy. The only problem is that his health is often in question.

Allen played all 16 games last year for the first time in his career, but suffered from serious season-ending injuries in each of the prior three seasons. A broken collarbone, lacerated kidney, and a torn ACL all mar Allen’s resume, which will give Chargers fans reason to panic on every hard cut he makes and every rough hit he takes. Without Allen, QB Philip Rivers won’t have a viable No. 1 target.

Chiefs

Why they will: A healthy Eric Berry.

Kansas City missed Eric Berry badly last season.

The Chiefs’ passing defense let up the sixth-most yards in the league, and was badly exposed by a pedestrian Marcus Mariota in the second-half of their Wild Card playoff game. This will hopefully change now that Berry, who ruptured his achilles tendon in the season opener, will be back in the fold. Berry had four interceptions and nine passes defensed in 2016, en route to his fifth career Pro Bowl appearance.

Why they won’t: Andy Reid’s playoff struggles.

Andy Reid is one of the league’s best regular season coaches—his 183 career wins are good for 10th all time, and his .604 winning percentage is seventh-best for any head coach with at least 300 games. Things haven’t gone as well for him in the playoffs, however: Reid is just 11-13 in the playoffs over the course of his career, including a 1-4 record with the Chiefs.

Raiders

Why they will: Chucky’s back.

Jon Gruden was the last Raiders head coach to have any type of consistent success, and he now hopes to be the next. “Chucky” went 38-26 as Oakland’s coach from 1998-2001, in a stint that featured two trips to the playoffs. He subsequently won a Super Bowl with the Bucs in 2002. He’ll now bring some old-school “Just Win, Baby” Raiders football back to Oakland before they move to Las Vegas in 2020.

Why they won’t: No more Mack.

Oakland’s defense was iffy enough with Khalil Mack; they let up the 10th most yards in the NFL last season. Without him, it’s arguably the worst in the league. The Raiders certainly got a ton back for the talented edge rusher, but those draft picks won’t do much to help them in the short run.

Broncos

Why they will: 2015 wasn’t that long ago.

The defensive heart of the 2015 Broncos championship team was still beating strong in 2017. Anchored by Von Miller—who made his sixth All-Pro team in seven NFL seasons last year—Denver’s scoring D finished sixth-best in the NFL. The offensive heart of the 2015 Broncos, however, has been MIA since Peyton Manning retired: Denver was 20th in passing yards, 25th in passing touchdowns, and 31st in quarterback rating last season.

The Broncos will hope to get those passing numbers up with the addition of Case Keenum, who recorded the seventh-highest quarterback rating in the NFL last year. They won’t need Keenum to be elite—all they’ll need out of Keenum is someone who can manage a respectable offense. If this can happen, the 2015 Broncos’ formula could easily lead the team to bounce back in 2018.

Why they won’t: An unproven quarterback.

Before last season, Case Keenum was just 9-15 as an NFL quarterback, and posted a meager 58.4 career completion percentage with just 24 touchdowns. Sure, he may have a late-career emergence a la Kurt Warner. But it’s also possible his 2017 was as big a fluke as Derek Anderson’s 10-win campaign with the Browns in 2007. It’s also hard to give John Elway the benefit of the doubt on quarterbacks, considering he’s the genius who acquired Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, and Trevor Siemian.