LOS ANGELES - APRIL 9: Gary Payton #20 and Kobe Bryant #8 of the Los Angeles Lakers are seen after a call during the Memphis Grizzlies game on April 9, 2004 at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Catherine Steenkeste/NBAE via Getty Images)
The second-round of the NBA Playoffs will open with a matchup everyone has circled on the calendar for weeks. The Bucks, fresh off a resounding sweep of the Heat in the first round, will take on the Nets, led by the big three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving—who some believe to be the most dominant offensive trio ever assembled.
The Nets have the better top-end talent, but their big three have only played together for very brief stretches this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks delivered a very clear response to the haters in the first-round and have a much-improved supporting cast surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo, led by point guard Jrue Holiday.
It is not even a hot take to say this second-round matchup might determine this year’s NBA champion. We’ve seen this kind of epic matchup early in the playoffs before (ask Nets head coach Steve Nash about his 2007 second-round matchup against the Spurs). A serious championship contender will be bounced of the postseason earlier than many expected.
That means either the Nets or Bucks will join a dubious list of teams that will be left wondering “what if?”
The list of championship-caliber teams to not win a title over the past 20 seasons is littered with squads that were full of talent, but ultimately unfulfilled promise. That’s baketball sometimes as Bucks fans—who can point to their team two seasons ago that reached the Eastern Conference Finals and took a 2-0 lead on the Raptors—know all too well.
Here are the most memorable “what if” NBA squads since 2000.
2001-02 Kings
The resume: The 2002 Sacramento Kings, led by Chris Webber, Peja Stojaković, Mike Bibby, Doug Christie, and Vlade Divac, won 61 games and were up 2-1 in the conference finals against a Lakers team going for a three-peat.
The turning point: There are quite a few turning points, starting with Robert Horry’s buzzer-beater in Game 4 after Sacramento went up by 24 points in the first half. Up 3-2, the Kings lost Game 6 in Los Angeles in a game in which the Lakers shot 27 free throws in the fourth-quarter. The Lakers won Game 7 in overtime in Sacramento and went on to win it all.
What if they won: The legacy of every single player on the Kings roster, especially Webber, would have changed drastically. Sacramento would also have been remembered as the team that prevented Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant from a historical accomplishment.
2003-04 Lakers
The resume: Someone will pull up the 2004 Lakers roster a million years from now and wonder how they didn’t win it all. They had O’Neal and Bryant and added Gary Payton and Karl Malone to complement their two stars. Payton and Malone were near the end of their careers, but the star power on this team should have been enough to win it all. The Lakers fought through injury and chemistry issues to win 56 games, beat the Spurs in round two thanks to Derek Fisher’s miracle shot, and defeat the Timberwolves in the conference finals in six games to set up a Finals matchup with the Pistons.
The turning point: Malone’s injury in the series ended up playing a crucial role in the team’s downfall. They scored a franchise-low 68 points in a Game 3 loss to fall behind 2-1 to the Pistons and lost the next two games as well, giving Detroit a five-game series win. O’Neal and Bryant’s relationship appeared beyond repair during the series, and the lack of chemistry contrasted with Detroit’s relentless defense and cohesion ended up being the difference.
What if they won: Do the Lakers trade O’Neal to Miami if they win a fourth championship with him? Perhaps Bryant and O’Neal were headed for a split anyways, but this 2004 title could have kept them together, and who knows if Los Angeles would have built more championship teams around them?
2005-06 Mavericks
2004-05 – 2006-07 Suns
The resume: It’s hard to pick just one team during the “Seven Seconds or Less” era in Phoenix. The Suns had several chances at the championship. In 2005, they won 62 games and made the Western Conference Finals but lost to the San Antonio Spurs. The following year they made the conference finals again and lost to Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks. The 2007 Suns team might have been the best of the era. They won 61 games but lost in the second round to San Antonio.
The turning point: Joe Johnson’s injury in the 2005 postseason remains a huge what-if for Suns fans, but the biggest one will be their 2007 second-round loss to the Spurs. In the closing seconds of an era-defining road win in Game 4 to even the series, Robert Horry hip-checked Steve Nash into the scorer’s table. A scuffle ensued, and Amar’e Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended for one game after leaving the bench. The short-handed Suns lost the next two games and the series.
What if they won: The Suns are the strange team who left as much of an impact on the league without a title—or even making a Finals. Mike D’Antoni’s style of play transformed the NBA as the fingerprints of the “Seven Seconds or Less” Suns are all over today’s game.
2012-13 Spurs
The resume: The Spurs won five championships during the Tim Duncan era, but San Antonio fans will tell you they missed out on a few more. Remember Derek Fisher’s .04 shot in 2004? Or Manu Ginobili’s Game 7 foul on Nowitzki in 2006? But the Spurs team everyone will remember as the one that should have won the title will be the 2013 squad. San Antonio won 58 games and, led by Duncan with a young Kawhi Leonard in the wings, was up 3-2 in the Finals against Miami with a five-point lead with 28.2 seconds left in Game 6.
The turning point: The yellow tape surrounded the court. The NBA was getting ready to present the trophy to San Antonio. Then the Ray Allen shot happened. The Heat won Game 6 in overtime while South Beach fans who left early comically tried to re-enter the arena. Two nights later in Game 7, the shell-shocked Spurs somehow recovered and had a chance to win the series in the fourth until LeBron James put them away late.
What if they won: It’s hard to say this loss tainted the legacy of the Spurs and full credit to them for coming back the following season and winning the 2014 Finals in a rematch with the Heat, but this is the closest any team has come to winning a title without actually finishing the job. Six championships also would have vaulted Duncan slightly higher on the all-time list.
2015-16 Thunder
The resume: The entire Thunder era featuring Russ and KD (and briefly James Harden) is a what-if, but the 2015-16 team will always be the biggest one of them all. The Thunder looked dominant in the Western Conference Finals, going up 3-1 against a Golden State Warriors team who won a record 73 games in the regular-season. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook didn’t look like they were only going to win a title. They looked like they were starting a run of multiple championships.
The turning point: After losing Game 5 in Oakland, the Thunder returned home and looked poised to close out the series in six. Except Klay Thompson happened. The Warriors guard made a postseason record 11 threes, scoring 41 points in one of the most incredible elimination game performances in NBA history. Golden State completed the 3-1 comeback several nights later in Game 7 at home.
What if they won: If the Thunder win, it likely prevents a series of events that led to Durant signing with Golden State that summer. A 2016 championship would have completed Westbrook’s resume. Oklahoma City’s championship window with Durant and Westbrook would’ve extended for a few more seasons at least.
2015-16 Warriors
The resume: The Warriors advanced and went up 3-1 on the Cavaliers. The championship seemed like a foregone conclusion, a fitting ending to a team that set the record for best regular-season record ever.
The turning point: You already know what happened next. Draymond Green was suspended for Game 5 when LeBron James and Kyrie Irving scored 41 points apiece to extend the season. The Cavs won in a blowout in Game 6, prompting this iconic photo and this infamous tweet. Cleveland completed the 3-1 comeback in Game 7 thanks to “The Block” and “The Shot.”
What if they won: The biggest “what if” is Durant likely ends up somewhere else instead of joining the Warriors, changing the trajectory of the league for the next half-decade.
2016-17 Cavs and Spurs
The resume: 2017 was Durant’s first season with the Warriors. Golden State went 67-15 in the regular-season and 16-1 in the playoffs, the best postseason record in NBA history. They were a dominant team which means two other all-time great teams and their awesome seasons have been forgotten. Led by MVP-candidate Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs won 61 games and made it to the conference finals. Meanwhile, the defending champs in Cleveland won 51 games, but became an all-time great offensive team in the postseason, advancing to the Finals for a third straight year.
The turning point: The Spurs will always wonder what if Leonard hadn’t stepped on Zaza Pachulia, landing on a 3-point attempt in Game 1 of the conference finals with San Antonio in command of the game. After the debilitating injury, Golden State took control and swept the series. Truthfully, the Cavs aren’t a perfect “what if” team since they had the unfortunate luck of running into an all-time great team in the Finals.
What if they won: The season was the beginning of the end of Leonard’s tenure in San Antonio. Maybe a title would have changed things, or perhaps he was always destined to leave the Spurs. For the Cavs, if James had defeated Durant’s Warriors, it arguably might have been more impressive than coming back from 3-1 in the Finals the year before.
2017-18 Rockets
The resume: Most teams just saw it as a foregone conclusion the Warriors were going to win the 2018 title, but Rockets general manager Daryl Morey didn’t run away from the challenge of going up against a Warriors team with Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. He tinkered with his roster around James Harden, most notably adding Chris Paul as a second lead guard. The Rockets and their analytical approach led to a conference-best 65 wins and a berth in the conference finals, where Houston went up 3-2 on Golden State.
The turning point: A hamstring injury at the end of Game 5 ended Paul’s season prematurely. The Rockets still went up by double digits in Game 6 but scored only 25 points in the second half. Two nights later, they missed 27 straight 3-pointers in a Game 7 defeat at home.
What if they won: Paul and Harden’s resume would be complete if they had won it all in 2018. They’re both still chasing their first championship.
2018-19 Bucks
The resume: The 2018-19 Milwaukee were a regular-season juggernaut. Led by Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks went 60-22, won the regular-season series against every Eastern Conference team, and lost back-to-back games once. After a Game 2 win over the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bucks improved to 10-1 in the playoffs with one of the best point differentials in postseason history.
The turning point: With a chance to go up 3-0, Milwaukee lost Game 3 in overtime, with Khris Middleton missing a jumper at the end of regulation which would have effectively ended the series. Two nights later, they lost to a resilient Toronto team, then dropped Game 5 at home thanks to an all-world fourth quarter from Kawhi Leonard and seven 3-pointers from Fred VanVleet. The Raptors completed the stunning comeback with their fourth straight win in Game 6 at home, clinching the franchise’s first NBA Finals berth.
What if they won: If the Bucks advance to the Finals and win the championship, Antetokounmpo vaults himself into the “best player in the world” conversation as Kawhi Leonard did after leading the Raptors to the title. Milwaukee would have won its first championship since 1971.