NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 13: Head coach Patrick Ewing of the Georgetown Hoyas and his team huddle before the start of the game against the Creighton Bluejays during the Big East Championship game at Madison Square Garden on March 13, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Who, precisely, qualifies as a sleeper?
College basketball fans know the definition and qualifications vary depending on whom you’re talking to when it’s NCAA Tournament time. But with the greatest sporting event on the American calendar set to tip off this week, it’s necessary to pinpoint a few sleepers talented enough to wreck some havoc if you’re taking your bracket challenge seriously.
Because even though this year’s tournament appears to be a two horse race between Gonzaga (+220) and Baylor (+600), overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets in Indianapolis by oddsmakers, we all know the tournament will be as wild and crazy as ever for two distinct reasons. First, it’s the NCAA Tournament and history has proven that crazy shit is guaranteed to happen—i.e. a double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 every year since 2008 and four No. 11 seeds have reached the Final Four over the last 14 tournaments. Second, we just concluded the weirdest regular and conference tournament seasons in college basketball history where some teams played a full schedule while others couldn’t meaning we have less data on this field than any other dating back to pre-internet days. So if you’re filling out a bracket and thinking about going all chalk, think again. Picking a sleeper or two to bust things is a rite of March, kind of like terrible St. Patrick’s Day specials at your local liquor store. Who, precisely, qualifies as a sleeper in our book is based on this very specific and ultra-scientific criteria:
- 6 seeds or lower because, I’m sorry, a 4 or 5 seed is absolutely not a sleeper
- Feature dynamic playmaker(s)/scorer(s)
- Picturing them making a run to the Sweet 16, or deeper, doesn’t require an acid trip
Now that you know the criteria, here are the sleepers you should seriously consider if you’re all about busting up your bracket.
USC
Seed: 6, West
Final Four Odds: +750
If you somehow still haven’t seen Evan Mobley play, prepare to be wowed. The extremely gifted 7’ center has the kind of footwork few freshman his size have ever possessed at the college level and it’s why he’ll be taking his talents to the NBA after just one season. Projected to go as high as the top 5 in this summer’s draft, Mobley exceeded expectations during his one and only season in Los Angeles averaging 16.8 PPG and 8.6 RPG. But it ain’t just about offense with him since he also averaged 3.0 BPG. He’s the biggest reason why USC was one of the better defensive squads in the nation (19th, according to KenPom ratings) and led the Pac-12 in all the sexy stats like defensive efficiency, field goal percentage allowed, and blocks. Mobley has the potential to carry the Trojans past a potential matchup with No. 3 seed Kansas in the second-round. In fact, the Action Network pegs the Trojans’ chances of reaching the Sweet 16 at 36.26 percent.
Texas Tech
Seed: 6, South
Final Four Odds: +300
Having racked up double-digit losses, the Red Raiders may not look at all that impressive glancing at their 17-10 record this season. But since the Red Raiders play in the nation’s top conference, all 10 of those defeats came against Quad 1 teams including very narrow losses to Big 12 powers Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia meaning they’re rightfully going to be a popular pick to make a run in their portion of the South region. Mac McClung, the Big 12 Newcomer of the Year since he’s a transfer from Georgetown, is the one to watch. Entering the Big 12 Tournament, the junior’s 10 games of 20-plus points were second in the conference behind Oklahoma State stud—and Big 12 Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year—Cade Cunningham’s 11. The Red Raiders lucked out with a pretty reasonable path to the Sweet 16 and, notably, coach Chris Beard is 9-3 in the NCAA Tournament at the school so don’t be scared advancing them. The Action Network says Tech’s chances of reaching the Sweet 16 are 28.77 percent.
UConn
Seed: 7, East
Final Four Odds: +750
If James Bouknight—who should be the next UConn wing player taken in the NBA Draft lottery—had been healthy all season long, the Huskies wouldn’t qualify as a sleeper. They’d probably be a No. 4 seed or lower. But when the First-Team All-Big East stud missed eight games with an elbow injury that required surgery, the Huskies struggled mightily (4-4). Since his return, UConn’s been playing its best basketball and peaking at the right time before losing to Creighton in the Big East Tournament semis. When your team features a star who can score as effortlessly as Bouknight and he happens to be surrounded by complimentary shooters, slashers, excellent rebounders, and a top 25 defense (according to KenPom’s ratings), the Huskies clearly have second weekend potential. UConn’s chances of reaching it stand at 23.27 percent, according to the Action Network.
Loyola Chicago
Seed: 8, Midwest
Final Four Odds: +900
Making a case for the Ramblers as a sleeper would’ve been easier had they earned a different seed like many bracket prognosticators predicted, but I’ll stick with ‘em. The last time the Ramblers were in the NCAA Tournament, Sister Jean became a celebrity. She’s still kicking at the ripe old age of 101 and she’ll be rooting like crazy for another run to the Final Four that won’t catch nearly as many people by surprise as the 2018 team’s did. That’s because Loyola Chicago found itself ranked in the Top 25 for a good portion of the season, sits at 9th in the KenPom ratings (featuring the nation’s top defensive rating), and resides among the top 10 teams in a bunch of other popular metrics. The competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, where the Ramblers won a school record 16 games, ain’t the Big 12 or Big Ten. I’m well aware that running into Illinois in the second-round, should Loyola Chicago take care of a tough Georgia Tech team in the first-round, will be a very tall task. And that’s why the Action Network’s projections give the Ramblers a 12.53 percent chance of doing it. But the seeding discrepancy between where Loyola Chicago, led by MVC Player of the Year Cameron Krutwig, finished analytically and where they ended up slotted by the selection committee is noteworthy. Some college basketball observers thought they could be as high as a No. 6 seed.
Michigan State
Seed: 11, East (First Four)
Final Four Odds: +3600
The Spartans were one of the last at-large teams into the dance (the selection committee ranked Michigan State as the 43rd best team in the field), but there’s little doubt the perennial Big Ten power is dangerous as a No. 11 seed. Yeah, it has to take care of UCLA in a First Four showdown before a first-round matchup with an underrated BYU squad looms. If you’re the contrarian type, don’t be scared by the fact they’ll be an enormously popular pick to advance because of name recognition alone. In his 23rd straight NCAA Tournament, coach Tom Izzo obviously has the pedigree to lead the Spartans on a run. And don’t forget they played one of the hardest schedules in the nation (No. 8, according to KenPom), beating Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois this season. If the Spartans already proved they’re capable of knocking off a pair of No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed from the nation’s second toughest conference this past season, I think they’re capable of beating No. 3 seed Texas that would stand in their way of a Sweet 16 berth—Action Network gives Michigan State’s chances of reaching a regional semifinal at 15.8 percent. If forward Aaron Henry starts going off for more than his 15.3 PPG average—like he did in those wins against the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Illini—look out.
Georgetown
Seed: 12, East
Final Four Odds: +4200
When a team’s hot, roll with ‘em. The Hoyas surprised everyone by ripping off four-straight wins to take the Big East Tournament despite being picked by the coaches as the conference’s worst team when the season started. Patrick Ewing’s squad is playing its best basketball and beat Villanova and smoked Creighton on its way to the program’s eighth conference tournament title, the most of any school in the vaunted league. While the Hoyas might be lacking that true scoring star, the young inside-outside duo of Dante Harris and Qudus Wahab will not be easy to deal with. Jahvon Blair, the Hoyas’ leading scorer at 15.8 PPG, deserves serious respect, too. Georgetown also just happens to be the best 3-point shooting team in the Big East (37.6 percent). The Hoyas will be a very popular pick to upset Colorado—everyone knows you have to pick at least on No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed—and rightfully so. Not surprisingly, projections don’t favor a long run. Georgetown’s chances of reaching the Sweet 16 are 9.34 percent, according to the Action Network.