NORMAN, OK - FEBRUARY 27: Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Cade Cunningham (2) calls a play during overtime against the Oklahoma Sooners on February 27th, 2021 at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman Oklahoma. (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
It’s almost (finally) here.
We already told you about six sleepers if you want to bust up your March Madness bracket. And we ran through 10 players you absolutely need to watch during the NCAA Tournament who will be first-round NBA Draft picks this summer. With the greatest event on the American sports calendar less than 48 hours away from tipping off, it’s time to take a few shots that aren’t of the alcoholic variety.
Everybody knows Gonzaga and Baylor, the two best teams in the nation during the regular-season, are the overwhelming favorites to meet on April 5 for the national championship in Indianapolis for a whole lotta reasons. But what’s the fun in picking chalk to run through the tournament when chaos makes things so much more interesting and isn’t all that far-fetched? The NCAA trademarked “March Madness” for a reason and if you love the unexpected we’ve highlighted four teams from each region—all with robust odds to cut down the nets—that easily could go on a magical run and just might be worth a wager.
In picking these four squads I didn’t care about seeding, nor did I care about pedigree. I just cared about the teams’ odds, path, and bonafide potential to pull off the unlikely and return a handsome profit. Happy future wagering.
Alabama
Seed: 2, East
Odds to win: +2200
The SEC regular-season and conference tournament champions love to launch it from deep and finished second in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. So not only can they light you up, they can also lock you down. Generally, that’s a successful combo no matter what level you’re playing at. Hardcore college basketball observers have highlighted how Nate Oats, the SEC Coach of the Year, has used analytics to make Alabama’s offense more efficient—threes and layups over mid-range jumpers—since taking over the program two seasons ago and it’s obviously working out quite well—Alabama is 18-0 this season when it scores 80 or more. They also have a dynamic player in Herbert Jones. The SEC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year might not be a first-round selection in this summer’s NBA Draft, but he’ll often be the best player on the floor. While Alabama’s path to the Final Four and a possible national semifinal showdown with Gonzaga isn’t easy coming out of the East region—especially with landmines in UConn and Texas potentially in their path in the second-round and Sweet 16, respectively, before a showdown with No. 1 seed Michigan in the Elite Eight—it’s definitely doable.
Oklahoma State
Seed: 4, Midwest
Odds to win: +2500
Not exactly going out on a limb here with this pick since the Cowboys were under-seeded by the selection committee (probably deserved a No. 3 seed with a 20-8 record, 10-6 vs Quad 1, 22nd in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom) and just happen to feature the best player in the NCAA Tournament in freshman sensation Cade Cunningham. TNT NBA analyst Reggie Miller, our guest on the most recent episode of The Complex Sports Podcast, loves Oklahoma State to advance deep into the tournament because of Cunningham and the only thing standing in Oklahoma State’s way of a Final Four just might be a showdown with No. 1 seed Illinois in the Sweet 16. Get past the tough and talented Illini and Baylor could await in the national semifinal. Don’t forget the Cowboys enter the tournament having won eight of their last nine, including a victory over the Bears in the Big 12 Tournament.
Texas Tech
Seed: 6, South
Odds to win: +3000
The Red Raiders have a not-too-unreasonable path to the Sweet 16 and wouldn’t have to face No. 1 seed Baylor until the regional final. And since Tech is so battle tested in the Big 12 they deserve serious consideration to surprise with another run to the Final Four after an appearance in 2019. Now we’re not here predicting the Red Raiders will knock off Baylor should the two conference rivals meet in the Elite Eight—the Bears beat the Red Raiders twice this season—but we all know it’s hard beating the same team three times and Tech has wins over tournament teams Texas, Oklahoma, and LSU with narrow losses to the Longhorns, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia. So clearly they can. While he doesn’t have the notoriety of other brand names coaches at the blue blood schools, remember that Chris Beard, who could yet again be a hot coaching candidate this offseason, is 9-3 in the tournament at Tech.
Oregon
Seed: 7, West
Odds to win: +6000
The one and only No. 7 seed to win it all was UConn back in 2014 so the odds of a run to the title by a team seeded this low are, appropriately, astronomical. But we’ll highlight the Ducks for a few reasons. First, Oregon morphed into a dangerous squad after getting off to a 9-4 start, losing its starting center to a torn ACL early in the season, missing key contributor Will Richardson for a dozen games, and weathering a couple of COVID pauses. Regardless, Oregon still managed to win the Pac-12 regular-season title, went 10-2 in February, features dynamic offensive players in Chris Duarte and Eugene Omoruyi, and is an excellent 3-point shooting team (22nd in the nation). Yeah, they got bounced in the Pac-12 Tournament by rival Oregon State. That shouldn’t stop you from thinking Oregon has second weekend potential, plus it wouldn’t meet Gonzaga until the Elite Eight. If Duarte and company have a hot night shooting they’re capable of bouncing every team in the tournament early, including the Bulldogs.