LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 14: Head Coach Tyronn Lue of the Los Angeles Clippers hi-fives Kawhi Leonard #2 during Round 2, Game 4 of 2021 NBA Playoffs on June 14, 2021 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California.
Free agency is simultaneously the most chaotic and fun time on the NBA calendar. But as we noted last week, the trade market might end up being way more intriguing and newsworthy during this summer’s NBA offseason since the free agent class isn’t shaping up to be as star-studded as previously expected.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, and a few other stars were once upon a time on track to headline this summer’s available free agents. But thanks to max extensions and teams handing out fewer 1-and-1 contracts, the 2021 free agent class is considerably less sexy than previous offseasons. That being said, it’s of course still full of excellent players and difference makers among the roughly top 20 or so available to sign anywhere. So we might as well do our best to project where the most notable names will wind up when players are eligible to sign new deals starting Friday, Aug. 6 at 12:01 p.m. ET.
As you’ll notice, we ignored guys with player options like Montrezl Harrell, Bobby Portis, Norman Powell, Will Barton, Serge Ibaka, JaMychal Green, and others because we need them to figure out what they want to do before re-assessing their situation. However, we couldn’t resist projecting the two most prominent ballers with player options because its Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard. Ignoring them would’ve been criminal.
You’ll see the Knicks mentioned a ton below—you’ll also hear them come up a ton in trade talks as well. That’s because New York owns the most cap room heading into free agency. The Knicks are projected to have a practical cap space of approximately $51 million for next season, according to Spotrac. Let’s see if the front office really knows what it’s doing and continues to spend its money judiciously rather than ridiculously as had been the Knickerbockers wont this century.
Chris Paul
Age: 36
After leading a young, stacked team on a playoff run for the ages, it seems incredibly far-fetched that Chris Paul would choose to play anywhere else other than Phoenix next season. Even though they got a few breaks on their run to the NBA Finals, the Suns are positioned to be contenders in the Western Conference for the next few years—as long as the Point God re-ups and continues to adhere to whatever crazy diet that’s helping him defeat Father Time. You’ll hear Paul’s name get mentioned approximately 5,664,342 times as the Knicks’ fix at point guard since they desperately need one, his former agent is now the team’s president, and New York has more cap room than any other team in the league. But why would CP3 move to the other side of the country when his family is based in Los Angeles and sign on to a team that’s clearly behind Phoenix’s schedule?
Best Fits: Suns, Knicks
Kawhi Leonard
Age: 30
We finally know Kawhi Leonard had a partially torn ACL, surgically repaired earlier this week, but who really knows what Leonard wants to do with a very significant decision looming about his future? The enigma that is Leonard has a player option for 2021-22 that he can utilize or he can decline and become an unrestricted free agent. Good luck projecting what he does because he’s incredibly hard to read and his small circle generally does an excellent job of keeping the intel about him internal. I still think re-upping with the Clippers is his best bet—nowhere else will he have influence and control like he’s reportedly enjoyed the past two seasons, why change locales for a third time in four summers, sticking with LA would long-term make him the most money, and the Clippers were the only team with two All-NBA players this past season. That still may not prevent him from looking elsewhere because Kawhi’s gonna Kawhi. It’s doubtful teams would be put off by Leonard’s knee injury just like the Nets weren’t scared of Kevin Durant coming back from an Achilles tear. New York has cap space galore. The Heat could make enough maneuvers to fit Leonard in—it’s probably the hottest/least surprising free agent rumor out there. Dallas is also reported to have serious interest in pursuing Leonard because who wouldn’t want to team up with the dynamic Luka Doncic?
Best Fits: Clippers, Mavericks, Heat, Knicks
Mike Conley Jr.
Age: 33
Despite the nagging injuries, it’s turned out to be a good fit for Mike Conley Jr. in Utah after he was traded there two summers ago. And Conley’s been on the record as saying his family loves being in Utah. He just made his first All-Star squad this past season and had his best shooting season of his 14-year career. Know that the Jazz own Conley’s Bird Rights so they can go above and beyond the cap to sign him, which they’d have to since they have two max players on the roster (Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell). Not to sound like a broken record, but the Knicks will certainly kick the tires on Conley since New York needs a point guard. There’s been some chatter that Dallas could go after him. There are also a number of teams that could use a point guard if the trade market turns out to be as volatile as expected, but for right now the smart money is on Conley re-upping with Utah since the Jazz reportedly really want him back.
Best Fits: Jazz, Knicks, Mavericks
Kyle Lowry
Age: 35
A crafty, veteran point guard with championship experience will have plenty of suitors—albeit on a shorter contract. Do the Raptors re-sign the most revered player in franchise history? If we knew what direction Toronto was headed—with Masai Ujiri still running things and keeping it moving in the Eastern Conference for another season or pivoting to new leadership and a mini-rebuild after missing the playoffs and snagging the No. 4 pick in the NBA Draft—it would clarify Lowry’s future with Toronto. New York’s going to be heavily linked to Lowry since coach Tom Thibodeau loves experienced players. Similar to Conley, the trade market could open up a point guard spot (like in Lowry’s hometown of Philadelphia, for instance) that’s currently occupied. Some of the suitors who were linked to him during the trade deadline will probably be linked to him again (Lakers and Heat). Keep this quote from Lowry in mind while predicting where he’ll land: “To be honest with you, my family will be a major factor in this. And also money talks and years talk, let’s be real...I still have a lot more to give. I have a ton of basketball left in me.”
Best Fits: Raptors, Knicks, Heat, Lakers
DeMar DeRozan
Age: 32
The ultra-steady DeMar DeRozan remains limited in what he can do offensively since he’s still doesn’t shoot threes. But the mid-range game is kind of low-key making a comeback and if you want a guy who can go out and give you 20 real easy and take some pressure off your No. 1 option why not seriously take a look at adding DeRozan? An unencumbered free agent for the first time in his career, re-upping with the Spurs is a distinct possibility. The Mavericks have been heavily linked to DeRozan, a four-time All-Star, even if it may not be a perfect fit. Since DeRozan is an LA guy, you’ll hear people mention the Lakers possibly looking to add him to the mix, even if that’s doubtful based on how next season’s salary cap is shaping up. If Leonard leaves LA, do the Clippers swoop up DeRozan? Did I mention how the Knicks have plenty of cap space, their coach loves reliable veterans, and they need more scoring to complement Julius Randle? If the Blazers really do blow things up, keep an eye on Portland. I’ve seen the Grizzlies mentioned as a landing spot for DeRozan. While the Grizzlies are attractive right now thanks to a young roster featuring Ja Morant, the track record of high-level free agents signing in of the NBA’s smallest market like Memphis is miniscule.
Best Fits: Spurs, Mavericks, Knicks, Clippers, Lakers, Blazers
John Collins
Age: 23
After an awesome run to the Eastern Conference Finals, of course the Hawks would love to retain their power forward who quietly morphed his game to fit better alongside Trae Young. With his size and athleticism, not to mention ability to rebound, John Collins can light it up, and fill up a box score, like few guys around the league. It feels far-fetched that the Hawks would allow him to leave while they still have some control over the restricted free agent, but you never know if there’s a deal out there that ends up being too rich for Atlanta to match (kind of unlikely, but theoretically possible). Collins has arguably made himself a max-caliber player and the rumor that he turned down a $90 million extension offer from Atlanta could end up being a great decision. Can’t rule out a mystery team since Collins is a restricted free agent and cap experts will remind us this summer that sign-and-trades are way easier to do with restricted free agents than unrestricted. The Timberwolves reportedly may make a run at Collins.
Best Fits: Hawks, Mavericks, Heat, Spurs
Lonzo Ball
Age: 23
A restricted free agent, Ball posted career-highs in points per game (14.6) and long-range shooting (37.8 from three) this past season and he’ll be in demand as someone whose shot has drastically improved since he entered the league as the No. 2 pick in the 2017 draft., Plus bhe can defend on the perimeter and obviously distribute at a high level. He’ll most likely price himself out of New Orleans, but we can’t entirely rule out the Pelicans. A number of teams looking to stabilize their backcourt will give Ball a serious look, with the Bulls being the clubhouse leader in rumors and rumblings. The Clippers who could use an upgrade at point. You know Papa Ball would love to have one of his sons back in their native Southern California. The Knicks are reportedly split on the benefits of adding Ball. A Lakers reunion isn’t completely ridiculous. I’ve seen Oklahoma City mentioned, but that doesn’t seem like something the family would sign off on. Ball’s a prime sign-and-trade candidate for somebody out there.
Best Fits: Bulls, Clippers, Knicks, Lakers, Pelicans
Dennis Schröder
Age: 28
There was talk about the Lakers looking to extend Dennis Schröder earlier this season, but they couldn’t come to an agreement and right now it kind of feels like the point guard will be playing for another new team when the 2020-21 season starts. Things didn’t quite work out in Los Angeles, after a good start, the way both sides had hoped. That being said, the door absolutely isn’t closed on Schröder returning since LA owns his Bird rights so it can go over the cap to re-sign him. The Knicks, as you’re well aware, need a point guard. So do a bunch of other teams. Just depends on which other contenders value him. Schröder reportedly sees himself as a big market player so keep that in mind.
Best Fits: Knicks, Bulls, Lakers, Pelicans
Andre Drummond
Age: 28
Let’s just say things didn’t exactly workout the way Andre Drummond and his team probably envisioned. After a rocky divorce from the Cavaliers, Drummond chose the Lakers over other squads to showcase his talents in hopes of landing a big deal this summer and that probably ain’t happening after a less than stellar run with LA. Not playing in the Game 6 loss to the Suns wasn’t a good look, but Frank Vogel and Rob Pelinka were very complimentary of Drummond. Maybe that’s something, maybe that’s nothing. He’s still on the right side of 30 and a rebounding machine that can put up numbers during the regular season. He’s far from a lost cause. And the Lakers could use a center—just not one that’s going to cost big money. There are other squads out there that could use a dynamic center, but Drummond’s hard to project because his game is better suited for a different era. And he’s not looking to take a discount.
Best Fits: Hornets, Lakers, Knicks, Clippers, Celtics
Reggie Jackson
Age: 31
No one made themselves more money from their postseason run than Reggie Jackson. He was awesome for the Clippers and he’ll enjoy a massive boost from the $2.3 million veteran minimum he earned on a 1-year deal this past season. Conventional wisdom says he’s priced himself out of Los Angeles since they can only offer him roughly $6 million with the taxpayer mid-level exception. When you average 17.8 PPG and hit 40.8 percent of your 3-pointers in the postseason and become eligible to sign anywhere you’re going to cash in. Good for Jackson. He’ll have options. And plenty of interested teams.
Best Fits: Grizzlies, Mavericks, Spurs, Knicks, Raptors, Clippers, Thunder
Spencer Dinwiddie
Age: 28
Good luck projecting where the guard ends up going since Spencer Dinwiddie is coming off a partially torn ACL. Yes, he does have a player option, and the Nets have his Bird rights thus allowing them to re-sign him for big money despite already being massively over the salary cap. But it’s widely assumed he’ll decline that PO and it’s possible he wants a bigger role in an offense elsewhere because the opportunities and minutes in the backcourt will be hard to come by. If the Nets offer big money, he says he’d love to return. I’d bet he’s off to another franchise where he can have a bigger role on offense than he would on the stacked Nets. Dinwiddie would be a nice addition with the Clippers (he’s from the Valley) if things got a little crazy for them. Would the Pelicans be interested if they lost Lonzo Ball? He wouldn’t come cheap. The Knicks wouldn’t mind adding a piece that subtracts from their cross-town rival.
Best Fits: Heat, Mavericks, Spurs, Clippers, Knicks, Pelicans
Victor Oladipo
Age: 29
Poor Victor Oladipo. If only he could stay healthy. Oladipo possesses the talent to be a borderline max player, but since his body keeps betraying him it feels inevitable that he signs a short-term deal this summer with a squad hoping to buy low and potentially sell high should he magically revert back to form. He’ll have options if he’s cool taking a team-friendly deal and a secondary role. The Heat reportedly would have interest in bringing him back depending on how their other free agent pursuits pan out. Plus the have Bird rights. But out of all the guys we’ve highlighted here, it feels like Oladipo’s market is by far the murkiest.
Best Fits: Heat
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Age: 29
I think Tim Hardaway Jr. would be unwise to look elsewhere considering he’s playing alongside a generational talent at point guard, but what do I know? He’s said he wants to stay in Dallas. The Mavericks, before their massive front office and coaching staff upheaval, said they wanted to retain the shooting guard. There’s been some chatter about the Warriors looking to add Hardaway, but they’re beyond capped out and almost assuredly have their sights set on bigger fish. I’d be surprised if Hardaway ends up anywhere except Dallas, but his ability to hit threes (39.1 percent last season) will make him attractive to a number of teams.
Best Fits: Mavericks, Spurs, Grizzlies, Heat, Raptors
Jarrett Allen
Age: 23
Another restricted free agent, the Cavaliers will absolutely do all they can to re-up Jarrett Allen after acquiring him from Brooklyn in that massive four-team James Harden trade back in January. There are plenty of other spots around the league where Allen would be a perfect fit—the Hornets continue to need a defensive force underneath the basket—since he’s a rugged defender who can rebound and has already made impressive strides after just four seasons seasons in the league. The safe bet is the Cavaliers match any offer Allen gets on the open market.
Best Fits: Cavaliers, Hornets, Thunder
Lauri Markkanen
Age: 24
If the Bulls are really going to address the point guard situation, it looks like it’s going to take some salary cap maneuvering to make it happen. And that means Lauri Markkanen, the Bulls first-round draft pick in 2017, won’t be retained. The Bulls are expected to make him a qualifying offer, that he’ll likely turn down, so Chicago will receive some compensation in return. Markkanen should have suitors since he’s young, has ideal length and size, and put up career best numbers shooting from the field coming off the bench. He probably thinks he should start somewhere else and likely can find a match around the league.
Best Fits: Spurs, Thunder, Bulls, Hornets
Duncan Robinson
Age: 27
A restricted free agent, it’s widely believe the Heat would very much like to retain the services of the sharp shooter who turned out to be an awesome find out of Michigan. But someone could blow Robinson away with an offer considering he’s a career 42.3 percent shooter from beyond the arc, pricing him out of Miami.
Best Fits: Heat, Knicks, Spurs, Grizzlies
Alex Caruso
Age: 27
Alex Caruso made himself into an invaluable member of the Lakers, and a fan favorite, over the past few seasons, helping LA win a title last fall, and it’s widely believed the purple and gold would love to retain the guard who can really defend and provide energy off the bench. LA has his Bird rights which should make things easier, but Caruso could command as much as $12 million per season and he’ll have plenty of suitors around the league.
Best Fits: Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs, Cavaliers, Pacers
Derrick Rose
Age: 32
He’ll be 33 by the time next season rolls around and his knee will forever give him trouble, but Derrick Rose had himself a very nice season upon his trade to New York in February and there’s still plenty left in the tank for the 2011 NBA MVP coming off the bench. Considering how well it worked with the Knicks and his relationship with Tom Thibodeau, New York is considered the favorite to sign Rose (they have early Bird rights). Rose says he’s open to just about any situation—he just wants to play—so his search for a new squad could end up surprising us. But he’s older and seemingly found a nice fit with the Knicks who should be playoff contenders again next season in the Eastern Conference. Unless he gets blown away by an offer out of nowhere expect Rose to remain a Knick.
Best Fits: Knicks, Clippers, Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls,
Carmelo Anthony
Age: 37
Melo’s getting up there, but we had to include the future Hall of Famer on here because he’s Carmelo Anthony and he still can score and has value to a contender that appreciates his experience and ability to placate to a superstar as we’ve seen him do in Portland. Running it back with the Blazers for a third season seems to make the most sense since it’s worked relatively well. But there is, of course, uncertainty in Portland right now and maybe Anthony would prefer a more stable situation as his career creeps closer to its end. I still can’t believe he hasn’t played with his buddy LeBron James yet. Maybe it finally happens. The Lakers could use him. Rumors about the Warriors having interest have picked up. There will forever be speculation about a reunion with the Knicks until the day he retires.
Best Fits: Blazers, Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Knicks
Blake Griffin
Age: 32
At his age and with his mileage, Blake Griffin will no longer break the bank. But after a pretty successful stint as a reliable backup for the Nets this past season, expect the former Clipper and Piston to earn somebody’s mid-level exception ($6 million for tax payers, $9 million for non-tax payers). It’s highly doubtful Griffin goes to a team that isn’t going to be in serious contention at this point in his career so anyone that could use a competent power forward off the bench probably kicks the tires on Griffin.