Apr 14, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; John Wall #1 of the Houston Rockets reacts to a call during the second quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Carmen Mandato/POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY Sports
John Wall trade speculation ain’t what it used to be.
Years ago, when the former Wizards point guard was playing at an All-Star level and earned an All-NBA nod during the 2016-17 season, Wall’s availability would’ve made major headlines across the league. Trade machines would’ve been flooded with amateur GMs trying to figure out how to get the five-time All-Star on their favorite team while fans and the media would’ve loved dissecting the dynamics of why Wall and Washington wanted a divorce.
Now it feels like the most appropriate response to the idea of Wall, currently a member of the Rockets, being traded to a second team in as many seasons—as was reported Tuesday by our pal over at The Athletic, Shams Charania—is a yawn.
That’s what happens when your star has diminished because you haven’t been healthy in years—Wall’s played in more than 41 games once since the 2016-17 campaign, missing a huge chunk of time thanks to knee and Achilles injuries. Plus he just happens to have the most burdensome contract in the NBA that’s going to be absurdly difficult to move.
After spending last season balling for the woeful Rockets who won’t be contending for several seasons to come, it appears the organization no longer requires the services of the extremely expensive point guard. Not when it has a backcourt full of exciting young talent like No. 2 pick in this summer’s draft Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. who need all the minutes they can get.
Reportedly, Houston and Wall are in agreement that it would be best if the Rockets can find a trade partner and ship him somewhere else, preferably you’d imagine, to a contending team. The Rockets and Wall are apparently cool with him sticking around the team and waiting for the right trade to develop—he just won’t suit up for games. So don’t expect any of the shenanigans we saw from James Harden last year when he tried every trick in the book to get the hell outta Houston.
But making a sensible trade—hell, any trade—featuring Wall is going to take a herculean effort because of the astronomical money he’s owed. If it happens—and not necessarily when it happens—the trade will be way more complicated than most fans and even keen NBA observers can reasonably fathom.
What Will He Bring Back?
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Because Wall is owed a whopping $92 million over the next two seasons (2022-23 is a player option for $47 million, but we all know he is not turning it down unless hell freezes over) and roster spots are basically set at the starting and back-up point guard positions across the league, it’s not the easiest exercise to properly gauge Wall’s value. Since the Rockets aren’t rushing to make a deal, and reportedly seem cool with waiting well into the season, maybe that helps Wall’s value should the point guard market change via an injury.
While Wall isn’t the player we was with the Wizards, he’s still more than serviceable, averaging 20.6 PPG, 6.9 APG, and 1.1 SPG with the overwhelming majority (65.7 percent) of his points coming via twos last season. He’s not washed by any means, but his true shooting percentage last season (50.3 percent) was his lowest since his second year in Washington and he’s a below league average shooter across the board. At age 31, with a serious injury history, a game that’s always been predicated on explosive athleticism, and a cringe-worthy contract, there are a laundry list of more attractive options at point guard than Wall.
Working him into another team’s cap will take an incredible amount of finesse because, well, he makes a gargantuan amount of money. When Wall was traded for Russell Westbrook last winter the salaries were a close match so it made a deal easily doable between Washington and Houston. The two teams essentially swapped one problem for another, plus the Rockets got a 2023 first-round draft pick outta the Wizards since they weren’t quite sure what player they were getting coming off his long layoff. Barring some cap gymnastics, Houston will have to take back major money, ideally in serviceable role players who fit the vision of general manager Rafael Stone. And depending on who they deal with, they may have to give up some of their future draft cache, although Tim MacMahon of ESPN reported the Rockets “do not want to give up first-round draft compensation in a Wall trade and would not have interest in discussing a buyout until possibly after free agency next summer.”
Where Could He Land?
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Wild speculation at its finest. I repeat: WILD SPECULATION AT ITS FINEST.
I saw ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweet it first and then his colleague Adrian Wojnarowski said it again on SportsCenter Tuesday night: Wall’s contract is nearly impossible to move.
Because of how much money needs to change hands there’s a very good chance if Wall does indeed get dealt it’ll be some massive three or four-team transaction that no amateur on a trade machine will ever come close to predicting. Also complicating matters: anybody signed as a free agent this past summer can’t be traded until December 15, per CBA rules.
I always throw in this disclaimer when doing these things because it’s important: Never forget that the trade proposals the media generally come up with are often overly simplistic and rarely rooted in anything more than slightly informed speculation. Same goes for anybody on Twitter throwing out absurd trade machine deals to get their followers in a frenzy. Also don’t forget what Marks told us earlier this year when it comes to trades.
“How does it help both teams? How is it a win-win?” Marks said.
There are some spots around the league where the point guard position could be fortified. Reportedly, the Clippers, Heat, and Pistons have already made inquiries/offers for Wall. Know that Wall is repped by Klutch and the agency led by Rich Paul will likely do its best to steer Wall to a major market as has been the case with their higher profile clients like Anthony Davis and what many expect to happen with Ben Simmons, the disgruntled Sixers point guard who’s looking to leave Philadelphia ASAP. So let’s start there.
The chances of trade with the Sixers ever happening, centered around Ben Simmons, are slim to none. Even though Simmons doesn’t want to stay in Philly, the Sixers need a point guard, and the salaries are relatively close. But we all know there was some drama around a proposed Harden deal last January since Daryl Morey is now running the show in Philly and Houston, reportedly, wasn’t too keen on doing business with its former exec. Also, Morey’s asking for a ransom for Simmons. While Philly technically is a match, does adding Wall really make them that much better in the East? I say no. You know they’d rather wait to see what happens with Damian Lillard so we’ll move on to other teams reportedly already making inquires.
Los Angeles could use some depth at point guard, but the Clippers are incredibly capped out and will have a helluva time trying to fit Wall onto the roster as a taxpaying team. Clearly the Clippers could use all the firepower they can assemble since they likely will be without the services of Kawhi Leonard for most, if not all, of the 2021-22 season. Considering their financial restraints, LA must get ultra creative to bring in Wall and recruit other teams to make the math work. Luke Kennard and Eric Bledsoe are obvious candidates to get moved, but their combined salaries fall way short of Wall’s.
It’s hard to envision the Heat making a move for Wall. There are no obvious trade candidates on the Heat roster that would allow them to easily bring him in—those closest in salary to Wall (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry) are obviously not available. Pat Riley’s been known to work his magic, like he did in free agency to get Lowry, but this would take some incredible financial gymnastics.
Dallas swung and missed trying to snag a point guard in free agency. I don’t think teaming Wall up with Luka Doncic in the backcourt elevates the Mavericks to super contenders in the Western Conference, but it would represent an upgrade and give Doncic another excellent offensive player to cook with. Trading Wall for Kristaps Porzingis and some other assets could technically be a problem-for-problem swap, but it feels unlikely that Dallas and Houston would do that, especially since they’re in the same division.
Learning from Wall wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for Cade Cunningham so maybe Detroit takes a swing and brings in a mentor for the No. 1 pick in July’s draft. Since nobody on the roster makes more than Jerami Grant’s $20 million, Detroit would have to stack a lot of names to come close to Wall’s salary and you would think some of their good young players like Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey are off limits in order to acquire a player who doesn’t figure to be part of Detroit’s long term plans.
🚨 Small market alert.🚨 Two names to keep an eye on getting moved at some point: Kevin Love and Collin Sexton. While Love appears to be an obvious buyout candidate, his agent recently threw cold water on that speculation. So maybe he’s really going to stick it out with Cleveland with two years and $60 million left on his deal. Sexton has been a rumored trade candidate for more than a minute—the Knicks have been a popular destination for those speculating on a landing place—and Cleveland could conceivably stack enough assets in order to attain Wall. But in the grand scheme of things, why?
🚨 Small market alert.🚨 New Orleans is a mess and making a move for Wall wouldn’t come close to fixing things after it essentially replaced Lonzo Ball with Devonte’ Graham in free agency. While Wall would represent an upgrade at the position, it’s hard to fathom New Orleans taking on that kind of financial burden.
🚨 Small market alert.🚨 Only because Oklahoma City could clear enough cap space, but as Zach Harper from The Athletic adroitly pointed out Tuesday, OKC’s probably going to want draft picks and Houston doesn’t want to attach any in a Wall trade. And if you think Wall wants to play in Oklahoma City at this point in his career, you’re lost.
