The 8 Storylines You Need to Know Before the NBA Finals

The NBA Finals weren't supposed to look like this. They were supposed to open in downtown Los Angeles with Staples Center bathed in its favorite colors—purple and gold—and a crowd of 18,997 supporters hyped for the Lakers' return to basketball's biggest stage for the first time in a decade.

Instead, the Finals will tip from one of the forgettable arenas at ESPN's Wide World of Sports campus down in Lake Buena Vista, Florida with only a few hundred people on hand to witness it as we begin to put a cap on the most unique season in NBA history. These playoffs have been unpredictable, kind of like 2020 itself, and if you saw the Heat taking on the Lakers for the right to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy then I hope you cashed in a big ticket at your favorite sportsbook. Because the odds of these two meeting in the Finals were longer than Bam Adebayo's wingspan when the postseason tipped off in August.

That's just one wrinkle among the many surrounding these Finals. There are always a million storylines whenever you're talking about the NBA's signature event, but we whittled 'em down to the eight we felt were worth your while before Game 1 tips tonight at 9 p.m. ET on ABC. We touched on the obvious ones, and not-so-obvious ones, and of course threw in a prediction I'm sure many of you share. So read up and get ready for LeBron James and Jimmy Butler to do battle in a series we hope goes seven, but probably is over well before October 13, the last possible date of the 2019-20 NBA season.

Another LeBron Milestone

It feels like every week LeBron James breaks another statistical barrier, and when he steps onto the floor for Game 1 James will join Bill Russell (12), Sam Jones (11), and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10) as the only players in NBA history to appear in double-digit Finals.

More consequentially, James will be attempting to do something no player in NBA history has accomplished—win a Finals MVP with three different teams.

Now, should James end up earning the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award I don't know how that's going to affect your all time rankings, especially if you're in the Michael Jordan is the GOAT camp. But should the Lakers win the organization’s 17th championship that would technically tie them with the Celtics for most in NBA history (some purists don’t include the Lakers' titles from their days in Minneapolis) James will have ascended to a level that's unprecedented and unbelievable.

LeBron’s Revenge vs. Pat Riley

LeBron possesses a plethora of incredible skills and attributes, including a memory that won’t let him forget any slight. If you remember James’s departure from Miami after the 2014 season, it did not go over well with Heat godfather Pat Riley. Before James announced he was returning home to Cleveland, Riley made some public comments about James and his impending free agency—“You gotta stay together, if you’ve got the guts. You don’t find the first door and run out of it,” Riley told the media in an obvious reference to James who was rumored to be leaving South Beach. The two reportedly did not speak until Riley texted LeBron before Game 7 of the 2016 Finals “Win this and be free.” James never responded.

Riley later expressed frustration and “tremendous anger,” as he revealed in a book released in 2018, over James’s departure to Cleveland, but ultimately understood it. Regardless, no one has described the relationship between James and Riley as patched up or chummy so even though James doesn’t need any extra motivation when his fourth NBA title is there for the taking, don’t be surprised if one day LeBron admits there was some extra oomph behind his performance in these Finals in order to stick it to Riley. Even if he’s denying it.

"It's no extra meaning to winning a championship, no matter who you're playing against," James told reporters at NBA Finals media day Tuesday. "It's already hard enough to even reach the Finals, to be in this position. If you're able to become victorious out of the Finals, it doesn't matter who it's against."

Anthony Davis, it should be noted, wasn’t buying it from LeBron.

"To be back in the Finals against Miami, I think, means a lot more to him winning this than anyone else," Davis told reporters at NBA Finals media day. "I think this championship is probably second behind Cleveland, being able to get this one for him."

The Heat are Massive Underdogs

Vegas installed Miami as +350 dogs against Los Angeles and a Finals team hasn’t seen such long odds to win it all since the 2004 Pistons. That team, of course, pulled off the upset over the mighty Lakers, but this matchup feels different. Historically speaking, we already laid out why the Heat has almost no chance to win it all. And considering Miami features the fourth-worst winning percentage of any team to make the Finals, it became just the third team seeded fifth or lower to make the Finals, and featured the longest odds of any team in modern NBA history to reach the NBA Finals (75-1) before the season began, things aren’t exactly trending in the right direction for the Heat.

Miami’s 2-3 Zone

Who knows how much Erik Spoelstra breaks out the defensive scheme that gave the Celtics trouble in the Eastern Conference Finals, but expect to see it—especially when James is off the court. The Lakers offense has been a much different beast when LeBron sits on the bench—LA’s offensive efficiency numbers take a dive without James’ playmaking skills—and considering how successful it was against Boston (and throughout their season) it would be shocking not to see Spoelstra unleash it.

If you’re wondering, yes, Miami used it against LA in their two regular-season matchups to varying degrees of success (the Lakers won both games) and, according to NBA.com, LA scored 39 points on 35 possessions against the zone in those two meetings. In the postseason, also according to NBA.com, the Lakers have faced zone on 30 possessions and averaged .93 points per possession, good enough for third among the 10 teams who saw zone for at least 10 possessions.

We all know the Heat head coach is the superior strategist compared to Lakers leader Frank Vogel. Vogel is no slouch and considered one of the better defensive minds in the NBA, but Spoelstra is in his fifth NBA Finals compared to Vogel’s goose egg. Miami has a decided advantage when it comes to coaching and they’ll need every bit of Spoelstra’s sorcery to keep the series competitive.

Is AD Really Built for This?

One of the biggest questions heading into the postseason was whether Anthony Davis was ready to perform on the biggest stage with gigantic expectations placed on his shoulders for the first time. So far, so good since AD has been averaging 28.8 points and 9.3 boards per game this postseason and other than a few light nights rebounding against the Nuggets he’s been superb playing alongside LeBron James—just like the regular-season.

Of course, the NBA Finals are way different than the first three rounds of the playoffs and the Heat present a much stiffer defense with bodies to front AD—most especially the young and talented Bam Adebayo—and schemes than anything Portland, Houston, or Denver threw at the power forward. Nobody’s expecting the Miami defense to stop Davis, because they kind of can't. But can they at least keep him in check and limit him to 20 as opposed to 30? That’s important because when James and Davis combine to score 60 points this season, the Lakers are practically unbeatable and we all know LeBron’s good for at least 25 a night.

Of note, Davis owns the third highest scoring average in NBA postseason history through a minimum of 25 games. Only Michael Jordan (33.4 PPG) and Allen Iverson (29.7 PPG) have higher career averages. Pretty good company for the 27-year-old.

Heat Culture

Have you heard the one about how the Heat have the most unique culture in the NBA? How their front office and coaching staff have created a basketball utopia that builds nothing but winners and how anyone not taking their talents to South Beach is a colossal loser and clown? The last part is, of course, an exaggeration, but we’ve been bombarded with stories and references to “Heat Culture” this postseason. With Miami’s unexpected run to the Finals if you aren’t a Heat fan you’re probably sick of the narrative. I’m warning you to prepare to want to puke your guts out from hearing about it ALL THE TIME during the Finals.

Yeah, the Heat have had a pretty good run under Riley after he infamously ducked out of New York in the mid-90s (he resigned via fax—Google that one, kids) and you can’t deny the results with three titles, six trips to the Finals, and a track record of drafting and attracting excellent talent to southeastern Florida. But newsflash people: Miami’s always going to be a location basketball players want to live and play at and the whole no state income tax thing is yet another feather in the cap the Heat can use to sell free agents. Of course Riley, Spoelstra, and their track record of success the last 10-15 years speaks for itself, but I somehow missed the memo that Miami cracked the code on creating Heaven on Earth for professional basketball players.

Bench Play

Talent wise, I think the reserves for both squads even each other out. Obviously the Lakers have more length bringing in Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris off the bench and they should continue to dominate the paint like they have practically all postseason (LA’s outscored the opposition in the paint by 9.6 points per game, the third biggest differential this postseason, according to NBA.com). We also know one game we’re going to see Rajon Rondo morph into Playoff Rondo and completely take over a crucial six-minute segment of the second half. It’s a rule until the 34-year-old guard retires.

But the Lakers can’t match the instant firepower Tyler Herro brings off the bench. According to The Athletic, the sensational Heat rookie has scored 247 points in the playoffs, which is 89 more than Kyle Kuzma, the Lakers top scoring sub, has poured in. If the Lakers can’t keep Herro in check—and frankly, who really has this postseason—it could get dicey for Los Angeles.

The Kuzma-Herro "Rivalry"

If you revel in the tawdry—and let’s be honest, who doesn’t—then keep an eye on the times Lakers forward Kyle Kuzma shares the court with Tyler Herro. If you know your TMZ, then you know Kuzma was once upon a time linked to Herro’s current paramour Katya Elise Henry. She’s down in the bubble to support her beau which means she could cross paths with Kuzma whom she shared a fling. Does this mean Kuzma will actually play some defense should he find himself switched onto Herro? Lakers fans hope so. Don’t feel too bad for Kuzma for losing out on Katya, though. Kuz’s girlfriend, the supermodel Winnie Harlow, is also in the bubble so the Lakers reserve has all the support he needs in Orlando.

Prediction

I haven’t seen as many people picking the Heat as I thought I even though they’re undoubtedly on one helluva magical run in the bubble. But I’m shocked to see some NBA observers picking this series to go the distance. A quick survey of several former players and a few select media members all told me they had the Lakers winning in six games or less. We all know the Heat have no answer for AD and LeBron and that’s why I think the Lakers are crowned champs in five games. And while it’s a boring selection, it feels ordained that James will make history by earning Finals MVP with his third different team.