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Busts come in many shapes and sizes. There’s the star player who is drafted early but has his season thwarted by injury – think Saquon Barkley last year.
Then there’s the player who is drafted early but simply underperforms – think Michael Thomas. And finally, there’s the player who everyone is calling a sleeper but fails to live up to the billing – word to Le’Veon Bell. However, if you’d like some sleepers for 2021 Fantasy Football, we have you covered there, too.
Of course, if you want to win your league and shut up Joe from accounting, you need to avoid the Bust Trap. We’re here to provide a roadmap around it.
Below, check out our top 7 bust candidates for 2021.
Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
Let’s get something straight: we aren’t calling Jones to have a bad year. I mean, come on, he’s Julio Jones. But fantasy managers who draft Jones early and expect him to have typical Julio numbers will be disappointed.
With the Atlanta stalwart moving north to Nashville, he heads into the run-happy Titans offense. Our listing of Jones is not a knock on Ryan Tannehill, whom analytics dictate continues to be underrated, but more so a reflection of lack of opportunity.
Derrick Henry is Tennessee’s workhorse. Further, Jones will have to share pass targets with AJ Brown, who received 106 targets last season. Expect Jones to have a good Year 1 in the Music City, but don’t expect jaw-dropping numbers.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Harris was tremendous at Alabama, but he’s a rookie. You never know what highly picked RBs will turn into in the pros (hello, Trent Richardson).
Additionally, Harris is stepping into a tough situation in Pittsburgh. You might think of the Steelers as the classic hard-nosed, ground-and-pound Pittsburgh squad, but this offensive line is questionable at best. The unit lost four starters.
Steer clear of Harris in your draft – and, for that matter, be cautious of all rookie running backs being picked early.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
You might be saying, “Wait, didn’t Russ have a great season last year?” Yes, he did. Nonetheless, he was less productive from a fantasy perspective in 2020 than in 2019, falling from the No. 3 QB to No. 6.
The main issue is not weapons. Seattle has two great wideouts in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The issue is protection. Seattle simply can’t give Russ enough time in the pocket.
That’s perhaps why there was noise this summer that Russ wanted out of Seattle.
Wilson is still one of the best QBs in the NFL, but given his name recognition, he’ll probably go too early in your draft (he was the QB1 in one of my drafts last year). Don’t be that guy making the mistake.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Jacobs has been tremendous since entering the NFL out of Alabama. Last year, he again eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark. Further, he improved his TDs from 7 to 12 and receptions from 20 to 33. The kid’s a stud.
This year, however, he won’t see as much volume as he has during Years 1 and 2. Kenyan Drake comes to town from Arizona, and Las Vegas didn’t give Drake $14.5 million (over two years) for him to perpetually sit on the bench.
Jacobs is the starter, and he should receive the majority of goal-line carries, so he shouldn’t slip too far – but Drake will eat into his opportunities, so be wary of expecting the Josh Jacobs of old.
Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
Davis was the beneficiary of some tough injury luck for Christian McCaffrey last year. With an expanded opportunity, the journeyman rushed 165 times (after getting only 11 carries the year before) for 642 yards and 6 TDs, in addition to catching 59 balls and scoring two receiving TDs in Carolina’s RB-friendly system.
That career year led to Davis receiving a two-year contract from Atlanta, and some are expecting similar productivity in the ATL. Don’t count on it. Davis was effective simply because of volume; his numbers on a per-carry and per-reception average were underwhelming (3.9 YPC, 6.3 YPR).
Don’t be surprised if Qadree Ollison or Cordarrelle Patterson ends up playing a more prominent role in the offense.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Montgomery had a career year last season. After struggling during his rookie campaign, he racked up 1,070 yards and 8 TDs, in addition to catching 54 passes and adding two receiving TDs.
So, why is he on this list, especially considering he could be playing with a rookie QB if Justin Fields wins the job? Tarik Cohen.
It’s easy to forget Cohen was a dynamic weapon prior to his knee injury, which sidelined him for 13 games last year. Cohen was a high-volume guy, too, getting 104 targets in 2019. Additionally, Chicago added veteran back Damien Williams.
Expect Montgomery to be the RB1, but don’t expect his numbers to resemble those of 2020.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews may be Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, but his numbers last year were disappointing. Despite his reputation as one of the best tight ends in the league, he finished ninth in catches (58). His numbers dropped in receptions (64 to 58), yards (852 to 701), and TDs (10 to 7).
We don’t expect him to be a complete flop this year. He’s still a reliable weapon in Greg Roman’s entertaining offense. But we also would argue his reputation has exceeded his production.
Andrews should be good for similar numbers: around 60 catches, 800 yards, and 8 TDs. Those are good stats, but they don’t come close to the output of the top tight ends, like Travis Kelce and Darren Waller.