Images via USA Today Sports
When Manu Ginobili announced his NBA retirement in late August, reporters Adrian Wojnarowski and Shams Charania both described the Spurs great as a “Hall of Famer.” The pundits’ proclamation wasn’t controversial: most fans believe the electric Argentine is destined for Springfield.
But there were also screams from the haters.
Congratulations to Manu Ginobili on a great career
0 1st team All-NBA
0 2nd team All-NBA
0 seasons of 20 ppg
0 seasons of 5 rpg
0 seasons of 5 apg
2x All-Star (tied with the likes of David Lee, Brad Miller, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas)
Tip of the cap.
— Ross Villarreal (@SportsRV) August 27, 2018
Though we’re confident Manu is bound for the Hall—his international achievements make the difference—there are a slew of current players whose candidacy is debatable. Will Dwight Howard get in? What about Blake Griffin? Joe Johnson?
The voting board considers NBA, NCAA, and international accomplishments, but criteria for selection remains somewhat mysterious (why exactly isn’t Chris Webber in yet?). Though it’s an inexact science, we’ve reviewed stats and career accomplishments, consulted traditional metrics for Hall acceptance, and unpacked which players will receive the prestigious honor.
Before we begin, you should know that if a player is selected to eight or more All-Star teams, he’s practically guaranteed acceptance to the Hall—that’s been the case 35-of-35 times to date. Granted, a player doesn’t need eight All-Star nods—Mo Cheeks, who was inducted this year, had only four. But if the player has fewer than eight appearances, he needs to make up for it with other accomplishments (Cheeks earned NBA All-Defense recognition five times).
Though voters consider much more than All-Star appearances, this metric remains an incredibly straightforward, valuable barometer, so each player’s number is listed in parentheses after his name.
The Locks
LeBron James (14), Dirk Nowitzki (13), Dwyane Wade (12), Chris Bosh (11), Carmelo Anthony (10), Kevin Durant (9), Chris Paul (9), Russell Westbrook (7), James Harden (6)
No explanation necessary. These players would be in if they retired today.
Too Soon to Tell
Paul George (5), John Wall (5), Kevin Love (5), Kyrie Irving (5), Klay Thompson (4), DeMar DeRozan (4), Jimmy Butler (4), DeMarcus Cousins (4), Damian Lillard (3), Draymond Green (3), Kawhi Leonard (2)
The above players, all 30 or under, have more work to do. Closest to admission: Kawhi (Finals MVP, two-time Defensive Player of the Year), Klay (three titles, two All-NBA nods), and Draymond (three titles, two All-NBA nods, three-time first-team All-Defense).
Already Cleared the Bar
Dwight Howard (8) — The Wizards center said this summer he’s confident his Hall résumé “speaks for itself,” but his critics assert that he ruined locker rooms, wasted his potential, and failed the “eye test” method for gauging greatness. Despite his polarizing persona, Howard’s numbers make him a clear yes. He made five All-NBA first teams, became the first player ever to win Defensive Player of the Year in three consecutive seasons, won an Olympic gold medal, and led the Magic to the 2009 Finals. One of the most dominant rebounders and shot-blockers of his generation, Howard will join the realm of legends, much to the dismay of his naysayers.
Vince Carter (8) — As The Carter Effect captured, Vince wasn’t only one of the NBA’s brightest stars; his ascendance fundamentally changed the grassroots basketball movement in Canada. “Half Man, Half Amazing” has bounced around the league and racked up honors: Rookie of the Year, All-NBA second and third-team selections, Teammate of the Year, and, of course, his unbelievable Dunk Contest title in 2000. He also won a gold medal at the Sydney Games, at which he provided one of the most iconic images in USA Basketball history, posterizing France’s Frédéric Weis. Given his longevity (he’s entering his 21st season), knack for pulling off the unforgettable, and holistic impact on the game, Vince gets the nod.
Tony Parker (6) — The 36-year-old point guard, who recently joined the Hornets, is arguably France’s greatest player ever. He has consistently represented his home country in international play, and he led France to a gold medal as MVP of EuroBasket 2013. In the NBA, he has won four titles, and he was Finals MVP in 2007. Having started 1,151 games in his career after quickly earning a starting role in his rookie year, Parker has been the NBA’s most reliable floor general over his 17 seasons. His stats aren’t jaw-dropping because Gregg Popovich limits his star players’ minutes, but he’s made four All-NBA teams. Each member of the Spurs’ “Big Three,” including Parker, is a lock for induction.
Pau Gasol (6) — Gasol's case is much like Parker’s. His longevity, NBA titles, and international exploits put him over the top. In 2017, Pau became the all-time leading scorer in EuroBasket play. A four-time All-NBA selection, Gasol has also claimed European Player of the Year four times. He has helped Spain win two silver medals (2008 and 2012) and one bronze medal (2016) at the Olympics. He’s won two NBA titles (in 2009 and 2010 with the Lakers). He was an immediate-impact player in the league, earning Rookie of the Year honors in 2002 with Memphis. He still holds the Grizzlies’ franchise records for both free throws made and attempted. (Remember the days when Gasol got to the line?)
Steph Curry (5) — Some will say Steph’s dazzling run has been too brief for him to be considered a lock. The 30-year-old has won two MVPs (including the first unanimous one in NBA history) and three titles, and he’s the greatest shooter in league history. He was also a two-time All-American at Davidson. Don’t play yourself: Steph is already a lock for induction.
Anthony Davis (5) — Yes: we have the 25-year-old in already. Davis is a three-time All-NBA first-teamer and has thrice received All-Defense honors. He’s led the league in blocks three times, and he was the 2017 All-Star Game MVP. He has averaged more than 20 and 10 in every pro season but his rookie campaign. The former No. 1 recruit and pick has been dominant since his high school days, but he went up a level in 2017-18, averaging 28.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game while leading New Orleans to the second round of the playoffs. The Brow is destined to compete for MVPs for the next decade, and he finished third in the voting last season, but this pick is not based on potential. He gets a final nudge from his accomplishments on the international (two gold medals with Team USA) and NCAA (national title, national Player of the Year) levels.
Destined to Miss Out
Joe Johnson (7) — Johnson just misses the eight-All-Star-appearance threshold, but he made all seven of his appearances in the Eastern Conference. He once qualified for an All-NBA third team, but Andrew Bynum once made the second team. Iso Joe failed to ever lead a team deep in the playoffs, resulting in fans perennially overlooking him in discussions of the league’s best players. Though he’s had a great career, he would need a wealth of international experience to win over the voting board, and he only played for Team USA as part of the disappointing 2006 World Championship bronze-medal squad.
LaMarcus Aldridge (6) — It seems L.A. should be younger than he is—has he really been around that long?—but he turned 33 this summer. Though he had an exceptional 2017-18 campaign in Leonard’s absence, Aldridge’s time as a star is all but certainly winding down. It’s difficult to imagine him sustaining All-NBA output beyond 2020. DeRozan should inherit the reins to Pop’s offense. Aldridge has put up big numbers throughout his career, but, like Johnson, he’s been mostly quiet in the postseason. He would likely earn induction if he had performed up to his standard in his first two seasons with San Antonio, but he didn’t. Aldridge just misses the cut.
Blake Griffin (5) — Life comes at you fast. Griffin, the 2011 Rookie of the Year, was an All-Star in each of his first five seasons. He also won the 2011 Dunk Contest, and for a time, he looked like the future of the NBA. Lob City was enrapturing. Remember how much fun that was? But because of injuries, the former No. 1 pick’s career has gone downhill fast. His numbers have never rebounded to match those of his impressive 2013-14 campaign, in which he finished third in MVP voting. He’s only 29, but Blake has lost much of his explosiveness, and it’d be shocking to see him make enough of a late-career surge to qualify for the Hall.
Al Horford (5) — Big Al is one of the most underappreciated players among the general NBA populace. Granted, hoops nerds love the Dominican forward, but—perhaps because of his reserved personality—he’s never entered superstar territory. Horford qualified for All-NBA once (2011), and he was an All-Defense second-teamer last season. He has produced consistently since his rookie year with Atlanta, and he has handled his business on and off the court “the right way.” But he played in only 40 combined games over two injury-riddled seasons (2011-12 and 2013-14), and his Hawks struggled in the playoffs. Those two shortened seasons will keep him from serious Hall consideration.
Kyle Lowry (4) — Lowry seems to embrace being overlooked. The former Villanova standout has found a home in Toronto, where he has made all four of his All-Star appearances. He also once qualified for All-NBA third team (in 2016). But Lowry emerged too late in his career; it took him nine NBA seasons to find his stride. Now 32, the undersized guard will be headed downhill in the near future.
Rajon Rondo (4) — Some might laugh this inclusion off, but they shouldn’t. Rondo deserves consideration. He was one of the NBA’s best defensive players for a time, and he has led the league in assists three times. He made the All-Rookie second team and helped power Boston through the playoffs. He was (mostly) back to looking like himself last season, but his strange dip from 2014-17 can’t be ignored.
Paul Millsap (4) — Millsap is another player (like Johnson, Aldridge, and Lowry) who has been overlooked his entire career. He’s now one of the league's highest-paid players, but his numbers—and lack of team success—aren’t enough to warrant inclusion in the Hall. He once made the league’s All-Rookie second team and All-Defense second team—which are nice honors, but not Hall-of-Fame nice.
Marc Gasol (3) — Gasol cracks this list because of his international accomplishments; he has regularly competed with Spain since 2006, and he has claimed two Olympic silver medals. He also won a FIBA Basketball World Cup and two EuroBasket championships. Gasol has had a wonderful NBA career—Defensive Player of the Year in 2013, two All-NBA selections, All-Rookie second team—but his brother’s accomplishments are more impressive. Though 38-year-old Pau has done enough to get in, 33-year-old Marc will miss out—which I believe means the Lakers officially won the brother swap of 2007.
Derrick Rose (3) — This is a sad note to end on. You have to feel for D-Rose. Like Griffin, the former Memphis star seemed destined for immortality. An NBA MVP has never previously missed out on the Hall of Fame, but Rose will. He’s never made it to the NBA Finals and only once qualified for an All-NBA team. The 2009 Rookie of the Year was on a torrid pace through 2012, but his ACL tear that year spelled his career’s demise. He missed the entire 2012-13 season and nearly all of 2013-14. When healthy, Rose was one of the most electric players of his generation, but his prime—unfortunately—didn’t last long enough to grant him a ticket to the Hall.
We won’t have to wait long to see these stars back on the court. The NBA preseason begins Friday.