Oct 25, 2018; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) makes a touchdown reception during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
If your fantasy football draft hasn’t taken place yet, it’s sure to go down soon—time is running out! The NFL season commences Thursday, Sept. 5.
It all begins with what’s sure to be an epic Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears matchup at Soldier Field. Remember last year’s Week 1 showdown between the NFC North rivals, when newly acquired Khalil Mack wreaked havoc on the Green Bay O-line, but the Packers stormed back in the fourth quarter for a 24-23 win? With sky-high expectations for both teams (they are tied for the third-best Super Bowl odds in the NFC) and all the excitement of the season’s first game, the encore promises to deliver high-quality entertainment yet again.
We’ve been gradually rolling out Complex’s advice for the 2019 fantasy season. Last week, we shared our expected sleepers and busts, guys who we anticipate will surprise. Now, it’s time to talk about the crème de la crème—the best players the league has to offer...at least from a fantasy perspective.
We share our top 10 below, highlighting why you should prioritize these players as you pursue bragging rights this season.
Note: These rankings assume a PPR (point per perception) scoring system.
Michael Thomas
Thomas—26 years old, 6'3" and 212 pounds—is a monster athlete, with both size and speed, and a true force for Sean Payton's squad. He’s a defensive back’s worst nightmare (just ask Marcus Peters). A second-round pick out of Ohio State in 2016, Thomas has been a 90-plus-catch, 1,000-plus-yard receiver from Day 1.
While New Orleans cruised as one of the best teams in the league from wire to wire last season, Thomas put the league on notice, proclaiming, “I’m here!” He caught 125 balls for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns, serving as Drew Brees’ primary weapon in the Saints’ prolific offense, which finished third in the league (behind the Chiefs and Rams). Accordingly, Thomas was richly rewarded this summer, signing a five-year, $100 million contract extension that made him both the highest-paid WR in the game and the first offensive player who's not a QB to garner $100 million. That should tell you something; this guy is really good.
Brees and Thomas have developed some serious chemistry, and as a result, Thomas has put up historic numbers. He has more catches through three seasons (321) than any player in NFL history. Further, his catch rate of 77 percent is highest in Pro Football Reference history.
The Saints have ranked among the best offenses in the league since Payton arrived in the Bayou in 2006, and they will do so again this season. They’re tied for the best odds (with the Rams, at 10-1) to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC, and if they fall short of expectations, it won’t be because of their offense.
Thomas doesn’t put up jaw-dropping touchdown numbers, but his reception and yardage totals are too strong to overlook. Given that the Saints lack receiving depth behind Thomas (granted, Alvin Kamara will still some of his shine), expect Brees to be looking his way all game long again in 2019.
Ezekiel Elliott
Will Zeke play or won’t he? While the NFL anxiously waits to find out, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones seems content to play mind games with Zeke. The befuddling Jones is gassing up rookie backup Tony Pollard and making it seem like America’s Team doesn’t even need its star back.
Oh, Jerry. Meanwhile, Elliott—one of the most dynamic two-way backs in the league, and still only 24 years old—is holding out for a new deal. He’s arguably Dallas’ franchise player, and he wants his bread!
Though it remains to be seen whether his wish will be granted, the Ohio State product and No. 4 overall pick in 2016, has played well enough to warrant a long-term deal. He’s made two Pro Bowls and averaged 101.2 rushing yards per game during his three NFL seasons. Further, he expanded his game as a receiver last season, going off for 77 catches for 567 yards and three scores through the air. Previously, he hadn’t put up more than 32 catches in a season.
Though he still hasn't returned to the explosive rushing numbers of his rookie campaign (1,631 yards, 15 TDs on the ground), Elliott has become a force for Dak Prescott in the passing game, and that’s why he’s so valuable in PPR leagues. If he weren’t in a contract dispute, in fact, Zeke would be battling for position in our top 2.
This is a risky pick, of course, because Elliott very well could end up missing some of the regular season. Though the odds of his situation turning into Le’Veon Bell 2.0 are slim, you should still proceed with caution. Even if Elliott only misses, say, four games, that’s still a major loss, considering the opportunity cost of the pick you’ll spend on him. It could come back to haunt you when fighting for playoff positioning.
So, how risk-averse are you feeling?
David Johnson
Johnson had a monster 2016 campaign, racking up 1,239 rushing yards with 16 touchdowns and 80 catches for 879 yards and four scores, but a dislocated wrist kept him out for the full 2017 campaign and his performance in 2018 was uninspiring. In his return to the field, Johnson failed to crack 1,000 yards and had only 50 receptions (he did manage to score 10 total touchdowns).
It’s important to remember, however, that Johnson was playing with an abysmal Cardinals offense. It’s hard to overstate the futility of Josh Rosen & Co. last season. Teams knew they could load up to stop Johnson, and his numbers suffered.
This year, with Rosen shipped off to Miami and new coach Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray now fueling the offense, many analysts are predicting a big comeback year from Johnson—and we’re buying the hype.
Kingsbury’s pass-heavy system will leverage Johnson’s versatility out of the backfield. Johnson—a third-round pick in 2015—played out of the shotgun often at Northern Iowa, which will ease his transition to Kingsbury’s Air Raid attack. As a reliable safety valve for his rookie signal-caller, expect lots of volume for the Memphis native.
If it weren’t for Elliott and his uncertain contract situation, Johnson would be the riskiest pick in our top 10. Arizona’s offensive line is still atrocious, and no one knows how well Kingsbury and Murray will adapt to the NFL. They might need some time. But if you take a gamble on Johnson, you could receive a prime payout—something like his 2016 campaign sounds pretty nice, eh?
Also of note: because of injuries and his down year last season, Johnson’s value has significantly declined since he was the consensus No. 1 on fantasy boards in 2017. He’s below Elliott and Thomas on most draft boards. You might even be able to snag the 2016 First-Team All-Pro early in the second-round of your draft. If he’s hanging around there or late in the first-round, do not hesitate to pull the trigger. Don’t let his down year in 2018 scare you.
Davante Adams
Matt LeFleur is the new head man in Green Bay, replacing Mike McCarthy, the only NFL head coach Aaron Rodgers had ever known. What will that mean for the Packers’ offense? That’s one of the biggest questions in the league heading into the new season.
Regardless of the uncertainty in Packers Nation, Adams is poised to continue his rapid ascent. The 26-year-old from Fresno State broke out amid the drama in Green Bay last season, hauling in 111 passes for 1,386 yards and 13 touchdowns—and he only played in 15 games. Nonetheless, his receiving TD total tied for second in the NFL with red zone dynamo Eric Ebron.
Adams got 169 targets last season, finishing second in the league in that category as well. Rodgers knows he can count on Adams, whose catch percentage of 65.7 percent last season was the highest of his career. Fantasy owners, too, know they can count on the 2014 second-round pick. Even a down game for him isn’t really a down game.
Absurd stat of the day:
If you took Davante Adams’s WORST fantasy game from 2018 and extrapolated his stats from that game into a full 16-game season, he still would’ve finished last season as a WR1.
...........WHAT?!?😳
— FF_Kyle (@DynastyFF_KyleM) July 29, 2019
In addition to his clear ability, two situational factors work in Adams’ favor: 1. he’s playing with arguably the best QB in the game, and Adams put up big numbers even in Rodgers’ “disappointing” 2018; and 2. Green Bay lacks a reliable running game, so Adams is poised to get a whopping number of targets yet again. Expect getting the ball to Adams to be a focal point in Year 1 for LeFleur, a former quarterbacks coach whose last two stops came as the offensive coordinator for the Titans (2018) and Rams (2017).
Julio Jones
Matt Ryan quietly had an outstanding year last season, nearly hitting 5,000 yards passing (4,924) while completing 69.4 percent of his passes and throwing 35 touchdowns to only seven interceptions. Of course, a big reason for Ryan’s success was the continued excellence of his unstoppable No. 1 target. The 30-year-old former Alabama standout had another stellar campaign, hauling in 113 passes (fourth in the NFL) for 1,677 yards (most in the league by more than 100 yards) and eight touchdowns.
Fantasy critics cite Jones’ proclivity for putting up only so-so touchdown numbers—indeed, even in his most prolific season, he scored only 10 times. For reference, Mike Williams from the Chargers had that many TDs last season. So...not ideal.
But Jones, like Michael Thomas, consistently puts up insane catch and yardage totals. His receiving yards per game average, in fact, is the highest in NFL history. That’s largely because Ryan looks Jones’ way constantly, knowing he can trust his sure-handed receiver to make plays despite the coverage keying in on him. Last year, Jones received the most targets (170) in the league. His volume and consistency (the last time Jones failed to eclipse 1,000 yards was 2013, when he played in only five games due to a fractured foot) are the reasons we rank him in our Top 5.
With Dirk Koetter back as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator (Ryan loves Koetter), expectations are high for the Falcons’ offense this season. Atlanta is going to sling the pigskin, so Ryan is a sneaky MVP pick. Though Calvin Ridley will put up big numbers as well, we’re confident you will not regret selecting Jones as your No. 1 wide receiver for the 2019 season.
Le'Veon Bell
Bell drove fantasy managers to the verge of insanity last year, as his contract holdout with the Steelers ended up stretching through the entire season, thwarting many managers’ championship aspirations. Imagine how you could have spent that first-round pick! But, hey...at least Bell feels bad about it and apologized.
The Michigan State product has a new team, but expect his output to remain sizeable. Though he may not turn out to be the absolute fantasy cheat code that he was with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh, Bell will still be a game-wrecker in your league.
The reason? His workload. He might approach 400 touches for the season. The Jets are going to feed the man.
Bell got plenty of touches with the Steelers (24.9 per game for his career; 406 in 2017) and will have a similarly large role in Year 1 in New York, as the Jets count on him to do a little bit of everything and justify his new lucrative, four-year contract. With young Sam Darnold at the helm and still finding his footing, expect Bell to be utilized early and often in both the rushing and receiving games. Further, New York lacks depth behind him—no disrespect to Ty Montgomery and Bilal Powell—so there’s no threat of his opportunities being split with his backups (cough, DeAngelo Williams and James Conner). Bell will stay on the field on third down.
We get it, he took a year off. Maybe he’ll be rusty. But people seem to be forgetting this guy is only 27 and put up absurd fantasy numbers the last time he was on an NFL field. In 2017, Bell racked up 1,291 rushing yards with nine touchdowns and 85 catches for 655 yards and two TDs through the air.
We’re predicting an enormous campaign from Bell this season, trouncing through the mediocre defenses of the AFC East and reminding the NFL why he’s one of the most valuable assets in the game. He wants to prove he deserved that deal and still deserves to be viewed as one of the best backs in the game.
DeAndre Hopkins
We recently labeled Texans QB Deshaun Watson one of the most underrated players in football. Despite his star status growing, people don’t seem to realize just how impressive Watson has been so far in his young career. The same could be said about his favorite target.
Last season, Hopkins, who was targeted on 14 percent of his snaps, didn’t drop a single pass. Let’s repeat that: zero drops. This guy has some of the best hands the league has ever seen. (Don’t take our word for it; listen to Nate Burleson.)
Hopkins fell to the No. 27 pick in the 2013 NFL draft, as he was largely overshadowed by Sammy Watkins at Clemson (how did that happen again?). Needless to say, many teams now regret passing on him. At age 27, Hopkins is just entering his prime years, and he’s already the finest wideout in the game.
He has cracked double-digit touchdowns three times, and he's eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark four times. During the Texans' surprising surge to the top of the AFC South last season, Hopkins had 115 catches (third in the NFL) for 1,572 yards (second) and 11 touchdowns (fifth). Oh, did we mention the drops thing? When Watson throws him the ball, he catches it. Period.
Here's the primary reason Hopkins is our top choice among non-running backs: yes, he's gifted, a highlight- and stat-producing machine...but he's also supremely reliable. Aside from his 15-game 2017 season, he has played all 16 games in each of his NFL seasons. Even a slower year for this guy would position him as one of the most productive wideouts in the game. Hopkins is as close to a “sure thing” as anyone in the NFL.
Sometimes you need to roll the dice (see: Elliott, Johnson). Other times (Hopkins, Jones) it’s best to go with a safe bet.
Alvin Kamara
The Saints’ two-headed beast in the backfield is no more, as veteran Mark Ingram has bounced for Baltimore. Kamara stands to benefit. He proved himself capable of carrying an offense as the workhorse RB last season with Ingram suspended for the first four games. In those games, Kamara had six total touchdowns, amassing 275 rushing yards and 35 catches for 336 yards.
After setting a league record with 7.7 yards per touch as a rookie, Kamara proved he was no one-year wonder with yet another prolific campaign in 2018. The third-round pick from Tennessee had 13 total touchdowns on the season, making the Pro Bowl for the second straight year.
Though he remains an amazing asset and one of the best QBs in the game, Drew Brees is getting older, and his pass-attempt and pass-yardage totals have declined over each of the past three years. In the season in which he’ll turn 41, Brees will rely on his star running back.
The Saints harbor Super Bowl aspirations, looking to bounce back from two consecutive heartbreaking playoff losses. If they are to fulfill those aspirations, they’ll need a dominant year from their featured back, who was Rookie of the Year in 2017.
Though Latavius Murray has joined the backfield in the Big Easy, he’s no Ingram, and his role won’t be as prominent. That said, Murray, Thomas and Jared Cook will steal some touches, which is why Kamara doesn’t crack our Top 2. However, given his versatility and expected high workload, he remains one of the best assets in the PPR game, and you would be wise to select Kamara...provided, that is, one of the next two guys isn’t available.
Christian McCaffrey
There were questions about how McCaffrey's game would translate from Stanford to the NFL, largely due to his size (5'11", 205 pounds). But the speedy son of former Broncos receiver Ed McCaffrey morphed in Year 2 into one of the biggest assets in the league.
His rookie season in Charlotte was encouraging but not overwhelming (435 rushing yards, two TDs; 80 catches, five TDs). His sophomore campaign, however, cemented the Panthers back as a genuine stud, both a defense-terrorizer and a fantasy wunderkind. With Carolina relying on him heavily in both the rushing and passing games, he racked up 13 total touchdowns. He had 326 total touches for the year, behind only Elliott and Saquon Barkley.
McCaffrey eclipsed the vaunted 100 catch-1,000 yards rushing mark, hauling in 107 passes (an NFL record for running backs) for 867 yards and rushing 219 times for 1,098 yards. He very well could go for over 1,000 yards in both rushing and receiving this year—now that would be something.
With a healthy Cam Newton leading the offense, the Panthers’ offense is poised to put up numbers. And McCaffrey will be on the field practically every down. He played 966 snaps last season, which is more than any other running back.
Panthers coach Ron Rivera recently said the team is "not going to take away his touches" and "when he’s on the field, there’s no reason for him to be a decoy or be a swing guy." Expect lots of TV game breaks for Christian McCaffrey touchdowns this season...and lots of headaches if you’re matched up against him in fantasy.
Saquon Barkley
Expectations were through the roof for Barkley (the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft, quite an accomplishment for a running back in today’s game) entering his rookie season in the Big Apple...yet he managed to exceed them. In Year 1 in the League, the man with the biggest quads in America (seriously, how does he buy pants?) led all running backs in fantasy points.
Barkley was a target monster, carrying the Giants’ offense en route to NFL Rookie of the Year honors. He racked up 91 catches, or the 13th-most in the league—ahead of receivers like Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Jarvis Landry—and had four TDs through the air. The Penn State product was just as impressive when he was handed the ball, averaging 5.0 yards per rushing attempt while running 261 times for 1,307 yards and 11 touchdowns. Also of note: he didn't fumble once on the season (you’ve got to avoid those negative points whenever possible!).
The Giants have bucked the sexy NFL trend of favoring the pass, instead relying on the ground game. Analysts expect their offense to be even more run-heavy in 2019. Whether that strategy will work for the team in terms of wins and losses is a matter of contention, but it will certainly lead to big numbers for Barkley.
Also: when they do pass, you can’t expect the aging Eli Manning to be looking downfield very often. His arm is declining, and the Giants’ receiving core is paper thin.
Saquon is not only the most talented running back in the NFL; he’s also in the ideal scenario for racking up scores of fantasy points. Pick him, watch him go off for gargantuan rushing and receiving numbers, and prosper.
Some fantasy managers lucky enough to draw the No. 1 pick are going to overthink it and take someone else here. If that’s you...well, congratulations, you played yourself.