Image via Complex Original
Now that we've run down the most anticipated albums of 2016, we're obliged to make a few predictions regarding rap rivalries and crew politics in 2016. Which clique is the strongest? Who's on the upswing, and who's falling off? Will Birdman and Weezy really reconcile long enough for us to finally hear the quite possibly catastrophic Carter V, which will make or break the logic and reputation of YMCMB? Who's even signed to G.O.O.D. Music these days? And where the hell is ScHoolboy Q? (Editor's Note: It's cool. We found him.)
My fellow Americans, we present the state of hip-hop in 2016.
OVO
In 2015, OVO basically morphed into the First Order of the new Star Wars film: The guys everyone once saw as heroes soon turned to lovable villains. Having diffused last year's ghostwriting allegations from Meek Mill, Drake now has everything to prove with Views From the 6. As a whole, the OVO crew still needs to prove that they're not just a one-trick pony.
Majid Jordan need to take a step to further crossover into the mainstream and could very well do that with their forthcoming, self-titled project. PARTYNEXTDOOR has been way too quiet as of late, but the pressure is mounting as he preps his next project that probably needs to see way more commercial success than his previous efforts. As always, the label will go as Drake goes, and that's understandable; he's the biggest draw in rap right now. But the main obstacle going forward for OVO will always be the secondary interests and getting fans to care. The Apple deal and OVO Sound Radio platform gives OVO a unique advantage over the competition, but like always, it will come down to the music. —Zach Frydenlund
YMCMB
This is a make-or-break year for what was once the biggest squad of this decade. YMCMB had their tight, tatted fist on pop radio's windpipe, shoving out so many hits that the label, feeling invincible, sought to sign everyone under the sun. Seriously, Bow Wow, Mystikal, Busta Rhymes, and Paris Hilton once called this label home, if they don't all still do. (Who knows; shit is a mess these days.) No more hilariously superfluous group albums. No more gift-wrapped Birdman "singles" that are really just Drake and Nicki Minaj putting in work while Baby mumbles a verse and then leaves Wayne to bat clean-up. No more Gudda Gudda tax write-offs. No more listenable Tyga music.
Wayne and Baby's schism has left the rosters heavy-hitters mum while they continue to outgrow and eclipse it; the former powerhouse now reduced to soft fodder for jokes and ridicule. Are the reunion rumors too good to be true? Maybe, but they pose an opportunity to strike back in a big way. Get Drizzy, Nick, and Weezle in the studio with another "Truffle Butter"; let Birdman keep up tradition and murder Drake with awesomely incomprehensible tough talk on Views and bring Tyga back to the fold with a hard, full-ringed slap to the face. Most-of-all: Tha Carter V album that precipitated this whole messy split better gotdamn be fire. YMCMB stands a chance at re-upping their reign. If not then, well, they'll sink like the Poseidon. You know, the less classy, gaudy, not-quite-Titanic but still indisputably equally behemoth. Drake and Nicki will float away safely on a raft, but I don't imagine there's enough room on the door for Wayne and Birdman. —Frazier Tharpe
MMG
The most telling sign that the Maybach Music Group is one of the most beleaguered crews in rap is that its most popping member, Omarion, is an R&B singer. After releasing his fourth album, Sex Playlist, at the tail end of 2014, Omarion rode into 2015 atop the wave of success gleefully gleaned from “Post To Be.” By April, that song would reach No. 13 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, thus becoming MMG’s highest-charting single in 2015. It was released in 2014.
That’s not to say MMG didn’t see other wins last year. Wale, who seems as if he’s counting the days until his contract’s up, teamed up with Jerry Seinfeld and dropped the most non-MMG project ever with The Album About Nothing. Later, the clique’s prodigal son, Meek Mill, returned and released his long-anticipated sophomore album, Dreams Worth More Than Money, which debuted to great fanfare reaching No. 1 on both the Hot 100 and the Hip-Hop charts. Then everything fell apart.
Rick Ross had a slew of his own issues, mainly charges for kidnapping and assault that left him confined to his Georgia mansion under house arrest. Meanwhile, not a single member of MMG sprung to Meek's defense in the Dreamchasers lieutenant's brief war with Drake. Not Stalley. Not Gunplay. Not Rockie Fresh. Not Fat Trel. In fact, Wale would eventually tell the Breakfast Club that Meek “brought a pencil to a gun fight.”
Rick Ross can postulate all he wants that his crew is fine and as strong as ever, but from our vantage, it seems as if MMG is asunder. It’ll be interesting to see who makes it onto Self Made 4. If there ever is a Self Made 4. —Damien Scott
G.O.O.D. Music
Pusha T is president, and Mr. West is in the building. With WAVES finna premiere at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 11, just a couple weeks from now, it's safe to presume that G.O.O.D. Music will hold Q1 on lock, with maximum hype. The greater challenge for G.O.O.D. Music in 2016, and in general, is expanding its portfolio to feature some real excitement apart from Kanye's penchant for co-signing outsiders like 2 Chainz, Travi$ Scott, Allan Kingdom, Kendrick, and Drake; all while the guts of his own organization dissolve.
For years, G.O.O.D. Music has signed young, upstart rappers, singers, and producers with some grand design in mind, only for the the label to drop these acts a year or two later and with zero explanation. Meanwhile, the roster's veterans go perpetually underutilized. Q-Tip, Mos Def, and John Legend ("Glory" aside) are all damn near retired from music. CyHi the Prynce, in prolific protest, seems to have locked himself in the studio basement. Effectively, G.O.O.D. Music is Kanye, Push, Big Sean, and then a carousel of might-could-bes with no release dates.
It's unclear what everyone's up to, and whether everyone's on the same page. Especially now that Pusha T is doubling down on his longtime rivalry with Drake just as Kanye West makes his own love for the Canadian famously clear. —Justin Charity
TDE
Kendrick Lamar is still riding high off 2015. To Pimp a Butterfly has received 11 Grammy nominations, including Album of the Year, and stirred up necessary dialog about, and among, black youth in today’s America. Kendrick put TDE on his shoulders and never looked back, while giving us unforgettable moments on late night television. Cornrow Kenny is turning into a superstar before our very eyes.
Lamar was supposed to have some help last year in the form of Jay Rock’s 90059, however, Rock’s sophomore LP didn’t make the waves it was supposed to. I personally fucked with it, but the general response was lukewarm, and honestly I haven’t found myself revisiting it. Ab-Soul gave us a dud in 2014, so expect him to come out strong this year and give us a proper follow up to Control System. And Oxymoron dropped in February 2014, so ScHoolboy Q should be dropping a heater this year as he is prone to do. While Kendrick swayed into Q’s lane with “King Kunta” and “Alright,” the latter is the true anthem-making machine of the clique, and arguably its most versatile.
All together, Black Hippy is the most dangerous crew in the game. I would bet my tax return that TDE will have a big year with or without Kendrick leading the pack. —Angel Diaz
A$AP Mob
Despite the passing of their leader early last year, the Mob has kept their heads high as they try to realize Yams’ vision. 2015 was a big year for them, Rocky especially. The Mob let us know they weren’t fucking around when they began the rollout to A.L.L.A. with “Multiply”; the music video featured the fashion-forward crew running through NYC as they saw fit, a tease to "Pretty Flacko II" with the help of Yung Gleesh’s viral dance moves, Juicy J talkin' shit, and Yams and Rocky back-to-back in matching Avirex’s like a Harlem version of MJ and Scottie. The game was on notice. Rocky then took that momentum and turned it into a critically acclaimed sophomore LP, a successful tour with Tyler, the Creator, and he continues to make waves outside of the booth as the new face of Guess Jeans. And they seem to be coming for 2016 as well.
A$AP Ferg’s latest track, “New Level," featuring Future, is in the early running for rap song of the year as he sets to follow up his debut album, Trap Lord, with Always Strive and Prosper. Twelvyy dropped “Last Year Being Broke” and has amassed 400K SoundCloud hits on the low, and A$AP Nast and A$AP Ant are featured on the certified banger “Yamborghini High” alongside Rocky and Ferg with a cameo from Twelvyy and Juicy J towards the end. The Mob ain’t letting up and are riding in the name of Yams. Look for another impressive year from NYC’s top crew. —Angel Diaz
Dreamville
Gotta assume that both Cole and Ibrahim grew up listening to Mary J. Blige, as they've kept Dreamville drama-free. J. Cole's merry band of young men who really need haircuts is a spartan, productive bunch; they stay in studios and out of our headlines, until there's new music to be heard. Apart from J. Cole's most recent solo album, 2014 Forest Hills Drive, the Dreamville crew's most impressive release to date is the first Revenge of the Dreamers mixtape, released at the top of 2014. The sequel, Revenge of the Dreamers II, is a decent warm-up for bigger, more vigorous movement in 2015. As with OVO, and rather unlike TDE, the younger, greener Dreamville guys are still working to distinguish themselves from their star captain. Omen dropped his debut album, Elephant Eyes, last summer. Cozz dropped his latest mixtape, Nothing Personal, at the top of year, and now it's on. —Justin Charity