Image via Complex Original
Say that mainstream success on a massive scale—without the backing of a major label—is the rap game version of discovering the Mississippi River. In that case, Macklemore discovered the Mississippi River.
If he hadn't been the first rapper to do it, someone else would have figured it out eventually.
Breaking out and becoming an independent success story on a massive scale was an inevitable result of the Internet. Connecting with fans became easier than ever, obliterating the necessity of certain music industry jobs overnight. Labels have survived on inertia and their connection to radio and distribution alone—and the importance of the latter is waning. Dom Kennedy recently created an arrangement directly with Best Buy to release his records without an intermediary. Labels are worth something as long as they control certain propriety information.
The truth is, while information wants to be free, entrepreneurs want it to be in their possession, so that they can bank off of it. What's happened in the last few years is that buzz has attached itself to artists before labels get involved. Artists who recognize their value before the labels have locked on aren't liable to share the profits with a support staff that weren't in on the ground floor. Enter what Forbes has called "Moneyball for Music": predictive technologies that use streaming data to make artist development less art than science.
Shazam Headquarters. Image via WhatCulture.com
For example: Warner Brothers recently partnered with Shazam, the app that tells you what song you're listening to. Forbes quoted Warner Brothers' COO Rob Wiesenthal: “By partnering with Shazam, a brand synonymous with music discovery for fans, we have forged a potent proposition—the first crowd-sourced, big data record label."
For those of us who've enjoyed paying close attention to what's popping in hip-hop over the last few years of Wild Wild West Internet, these kind of stats are awesome—although the threat of seeing them go solely to those who would profit off of buzzing artists is disheartening.
But in a context-free environment, those stats are also somewhat meaningless. For example: Shazam predicts a big year in 2014 for Kid Ink, because that rapper's "Show Me" and other singles have caught the ears of numerous radio and club listeners. You don't have to tell me why; "Show Me" is fire, flipping a club classic for a modern context. But it also doesn't have much to do with Kid Ink, who feels very much like an industry cipher who needs only to play the role of Tyga's Tyga for the song to work its magic.
At the end of the day, data is only as good as you make it. So we're going to try to make use of it. Utilizing Shazam and various other data streams, context, experience, and our own tastes, Complex is going to make an effort to read the tea leaves and predict the future ourselves. The goal isn't to identify all the hits, but to contextualize them, filter them through our own perspective, and get a handle on where things are headed.
Rayven Justice "Slide Thru"
If any one radio station in the country seems to be setting the trends right now, its the Bay Area's KMEL, which—even better than its Atlanta competition, or its Cali bretheren in L.A.—has one of the best playlists in the country. With a unified blend of L.A. and Bay Area beats over that uptempo style pioneered by the HBK Gang and DJ Mustard, Cali has been throwing numbers on the board. DJ Mustard alone has four songs in the hip-hop airplay top ten.
I've repped pretty heavily for "2 AM" already—another Left Coast jam liable to make it big in the next few months. Same goes for Cassie soundalike Tinashe, whose delicate approach on "2 On" is balanced by Mustard's muscle. It's tough to imagine Rayven Justice's "Slide Thru" won't join them, even though the Migos remix is already a month old and the original video's been out for three. Produced by Young California, DJ Carisma, and DJ Amen, it shows how very slight variations on an existing formula can create radically different effects on the listener, the cartoonish "I'm Different" pianos mutating into enigmatic atmosphere.
Another song in this vein liable to have a big few months is Derek King's "Jump," with Kirko Bangz and Sage the Gemini. Since the success of Sage's "Red Nose" and "Gas Pedal" cuts last year, he's popped up on remixes across the map—a good sign that a song is gathering momentum is that it emerges with a Sage guest spot. (See also: the Hit-Boy produced "Kiss It.")
Anthony Lewis f/ Billy Bang "Candy Rain"
Less a song of its own than a mash-up of 2 Chainz's "I'm Different" with Soul For Real's "Candy Rain," Anthony Lewis' "Candy Rain" is ostensibly a launching pad for the singer's career, but it's more interesting for capturing the spirit of a DJ Ron G blend tape cut (Ron G used to blend R&B and hip-hop to great effect in the late '80s, inspiring the early success of Bad Boy Records—as well as the original "Candy Rain" producer, Andre Harrell). The slight alterations to the "I'm Different" beat keep that song's primary melody—obviously, it's intended referentially, making no effort to hide the similarity. To today's audience, "Candy Rain" might as well be ancient. But there are unexpected sparks when these two songs sit on top of one another, proving the timelessness of a good melody even wedded to a modern groove.
This is in sharp contrast to similar attempts to reuse music history that have cropped up in recent months: Omarion's hijack of Debarge's "I Like It," which dirties up the crown jewel of '80s R&B. Or the aforementioned "Kiss It" by Dev, which tediously reupholsters a nursery rhyme. Or most amusing of all, Ludacris' new single "Party Girls," which adopts, LOL, Aqua's "Barbie Girl." Handle history with care.
Lil Boosie and Webbie "Show the World"
At Lil Boosie's press conference, one of his attorneys quoted an Atlantic exec as saying they were going to "bet the house on Boosie." It was clear this was already a part of their plan when "Show the World"—a single recorded five years earlier, before Boosie went away—was released and pushed at radio throughout the South prior to the rapper's release. One gets the impression that this plan has been longin the making. Days after Boosie got out of jail, he and Webbie were shooting the video.
Honestly, it's not my favorite Boosie or Webbie single; it's heartfelt, but it doesn't really register on the Richter Scale of Boosie's emotional intensity. And it's also not exactly the kind of firing-on-all-cylinders energy that epitomizes his best club tracks. Still a solid record, though, and it's just good to see him out of jail.
While it hasn't made its way up North quite yet, it's doubtful this will be the last you hear of it. Don't forget that Boosie spent his fair share of time on the Hot 100 in the late 2000s; "Independent," another Webbie collaboration, was a Top 10 single on the Billboard pop charts.
Baby Bash f/ Raw Smoov and Ty Dolla $ign "Low-Key"
For some reason, Ty Dolla $ign and rapper Baby Bash feel like an especially complementary duo, as slick sweet-talkers with particularly smooth sing-song approach to the pop jugular. "Low Key" isn't a bad description for the way the song sidles easily against your eardrums. Baby Bash has struggled to match the mainstream success he hit with "Suga Suga" and "Baby I'm Back." (We'll pretend "Cyclone" didn't happen—even if you like it, you have to admit it feels more like a T-Pain single and doesn't exactly play to Bash's strengths). "Low Key," though, is right in the rapper's sweet spot, and with Ty Dolla sending his own singles up the flagpole, it's as good a time as any for a comeback.
Iggy Azalea f/ Charli XCX "Fancy"
If anyone's liable to win in an environment where everyone is jocking a similar sound, it's the white girl. You may have caught her performing it on Late Night with Seth Meyers the other evening. It won't be the last time you hear it. Iggy Azalea, acting for all the world like the 2014 Australian-American Gwen Stefani, yanks the "My Nigga" vibe and drops it on the set of Clueless, which, if BuzzFeed is any indicator, is a really important cultural touchstone to, like, everybody. And everyone knows, being white = rhythmic/Top 40 crossover, even if your song is by all definitions rap music. If this doesn't take off, we are truly living in a post-racial society. (This will take off and become huge.)
The song is actually pretty jammin', though; It should single-handedly transform Iggy from a stilted UK favorite with the rap version of Christian Bale's Batman voice to a true U.S. pop star. At least it includes a reference (through the words of Nas) to Harlem's historic (now-defunct) Roof Top nightclub. Do the knowledge!
Jazmin Sisters "You"
Jazmin Sisters are IRL sisters—an LA-based Chinese-American foursome—who have already clocked some time on television (they got 3rd place on MTV's Top Pop Group and were finalists on America's Got Talent) and are working with the duo Midi Mafia. (You know Midi Mafia; they produced "21 Questions.") It remains to be seen how America will embarrass itself trying to talk about a successful Asian-American R&B quartet, but one thing seems likely: this song, by all rights, will be a smash. What with its repeated "Do-oo-oo-it" samples, "You" is a lunge for the pop jugular.
Vado f/ Jeremih "My Bae"
Now that New York hip-hop is basically its own regional rap scene, with local heroes whose chances for national attention are somewhere on the scale of J. Stalin to Lil Keke, it's become unexpectedly liberating. Dudes like Fabolous and Vado can go forward making radio jams without sweating New York history or bringing the sound of some long forgotten era back, or trying to force Harry Fraud to have the same relevance as DJ Mustard. Instead, you can just enjoy the shit for what it is. And here, Vado's got a killer hook from Jeremih, one that incorporates current slang without forcing it. Runner-up has to go to Troy Ave and Lloyd Banks' funky-for-the-ladies "Your Style."
Propain "2 Rounds"
Speaking of regional, Houston's heavy-hitters have been in something of a slump trying to gain national looks. The sound that made them famous has completely infiltrated the sound of hip-hop, and popular music more broadly. Which makes their sound less "vanguard" and more "old guard." Not a bad place to be for a vet like Lil Keke, whose "Worry Like You" has gained some traction; more worrisome for Kirko, the de facto hookman and still a faint bit too much like Drake. Likewise, Z-Ro and Slim Thug will still turn out big local anthems—most recently, "Lovin You (On My Mind)"—but it also seems unlikely to strike a match outside Texas.
The potential exception is the "Bump N Grind (Remix)"-sampling, Rich Homie Quan-assisted "2 Rounds." Although it's been a long slow climb (it was originally released last summer), the song has two big advantages: it features newcomer Propain, who has a distinctive voice that stretches energetically through each syllable. And an especially touching, emotive hook from Quan, which suggests considerable range from a songwriter occasionally described as a Future knockoff.
If you really want some H-Town throwback music though, don't miss Just Brittany's "Slow Bangin'" with Z-Ro, which flips DJ DMD's Houston classic "So Real" (itself a flip of the Isley Brothers).
Bando Jonez "Sex You"
If you haven't heard this yet, it won't be avoidable within the month. Signed to Polow Da Don's Epic Records imprint Zone 4, Bando Jonez is a new artist singing about his X-rated fantasies. (Not sure what happened with the Lloyd/Polow alliance of 2010-2011.) It's a jam driven by directness. The song is a Polow-produced percussive exercise with a murky bassline and a breakdown full of bubbling water that makes it sound like the prurient fantasies of a dude sucking a bong. Also, the cover art is eye-popping.
Cash Out "She Twerkin"
Cash Out seemed like he might end up being a one hit wonder after "Cashin Out" filled out summer jam playlists in '12. But if you look at Shazam in Atlanta any time over the past four months or so, "She Twerkin"—oblivious to twerking's now-passe pop culture status—has remained in the top ten most-"Shazam"'d singles. A collaboration by two of the city's hottest producers, the song chimes in clock-like synchronicity. If I was to guess which venues have been hosting this song over the past few months down in ATL, I would say in this order: 1) Public libraries 2) Atlanta Symphony Hall 3) Holy Spirit Preparatory School teachers lounge.
For real though, "see you grabbin on my tooly/She told me smack her on the booty" is downright high art compared with recent competition from K Camp ("Cut Her Off"), Rico Love ("Bitches Be Like"), and Spenzo ("Wife Er"), all of whom have successfully scored hits while ratcheting up the misogyny levels to "uncomfortable."